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Interim Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2004 March 11, 2004
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2 MBA Fund Managers Anjana Radhakrishnan Christopher Bodnar Ganesh Padmanabhan Geoffrey Munger Heather Utter Jessie LeBlanc Michael Appell Saipriya Menon Tanzhuo Liu Wiebke Wanner- Borchardt
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3 Agenda Investment Philosophy & Approach Investment Criteria Portfolio Performance Attribution Analysis Retrospection and Self-Analysis Economic Outlook
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4 Investment Philosophy Outperform the S&P500 Strategic sector allocation Selection of stocks with strong growth potential Close monitoring of the portfolio Fundamental analysis Historical performance Business models Economic outlook for the industry Valuation Undervalued stocks Long-term (3-5 year) investment horizon
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5 Investment Approach Sector Allocation Constant Portfolio Performance Monitoring Valuation PEG and P/E Models Discounted Cash Flow Economic Profit Fundamental Analysis Historical Growth Free Cash Flow Profit Margin Investment Criteria
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6 QuantitativeQualitative ROA Industry Growth ROECompany Market Share ROICCorporate Governance Growth in EPSInstitutional Ownership Free Cash Flow/Net IncomeInsider Trading Gross MarginMarket Power Product Differentiation Low-cost Producer Customer Relationship Retention Ratio Economic Profit Debt/Equity Beta Quantitative & qualitative factors checked across industries
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Qualitative Investment Criteria - Portfolio OCREBAYJECINTU Industry Growth19.42%27.20%12.7%18.5% Company Market Share 2.29%17.62%12.00%3.38% Market Power Product Differentiation Low-cost Producer Customer Relationship Medium High Low High Medium High Low Medium Corporate Governance 6/126/136/95/8 Institutional Ownership 95%67.44%65.50%83.38% Insider Trading7.70%-0.5%0.01%-0.30%
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8 OCREBAYJECINTU ROA6.18%9.10%7.86%10.27% ROE13.12%10.50%16.35%14.70% ROIC7.37%10.18%13.10%14.55% Cost of Capital6.80%8.74%8.12%7.81% Economic Profit15M62M49M159M EPS Growth28.30%84.6%34.53%96.86% FCF/NI1.301.030.731.56 Debt/Equity0.680.0200.01 Beta0.851.550.951.20 Quantitative Investment Criteria - Portfolio
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9 Portfolio Monitoring - Sell Criteria Stock reaches its price objective Industry-sector weighting exceeds predetermined limits Risk/reward profile deteriorates Earnings figures lower than estimates Stop loss on all positions
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10 SMF Holdings – 12/26/03 Our sector allocation closely tracks the S&P500 with exceptions based on economic outlook TickerEquity Weight CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 31.46% ALV4.21% EBAY6.12% HOTT5.85% MAT5.86% WSM4.42% YCC5.00% HEALTHCARE 29.28% GILD6.56% HSIC5.78% OCR5.27% UNH5.77% ZMH5.89%
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11 SMF Holdings – 12/26/03 TickerEquity Weight INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 18.77% COGN3.36% FDC4.17% INTU5.68% MSFT5.56% INDUSTRIALS 9.15% CD5.62% JEC3.53% FINANCIALS 5.38% WFC5.38% CONSUMER STAPLES 5.97% MO5.97% Our sector allocation closely tracks the S&P500 with exceptions based on economic outlook
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12 SMF Holdings - Adjustments Sold COGN and ALV Initiated positions in: Materials: Newmont Mining (NEM) IT: Intel (INTC) Reviewing positions in: JEC, INTU, WSM, EBAY, and OCR Seeking positions in Energy and Telecom Sectors
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13 SMF Holdings – 02/17/04 TickerQuantityPurchase Price Market Value (02/17/04) HPR ALV*300$32.43$11,33716.53% CD700$21.05$16,0518.92% COGN*300$34.80$9,042-13.39% EBAY260$56.49$17,99722.55% FDC280$35.96$11,31212.35% GILD300$53.32$17,4128.85% HOTT550$27.43$16,1596.82% HSIC230$66.06$16,5058.63% INTC420$30.75$12,9490.26% INTU290$51.87$14,370-4.48% JEC200$47.86$8,712-9.27% * SOLD
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14 SMF Holdings – 02/17/04 TickerQuantityPurchase Price Market Value (02/17/04) HPR MAT830$19.19$15,770-0.97% MO300$51.87$16,5186.15% MSFT550$26.56$14,9001.98% NEM215$42.41$9,7296.7% OCR350$36.93$16,32826.03% UNH275$54.63$16,65710.88% WFC250$55.23$14,4804.64% WSM350$33.84$14,403-3.9% YCC500$27.71$14,1802.35% ZMH230$69.74$17,84811.27%
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15 SMF Holdings – Performance SMFS&P 500 Return 11.28%11.96% Annualized Return 23.47%24.97% Beta 1.0141.00 Annualized Standard Deviation 7.67%7.46% Sharpe Ratio 2.672.93 Treynor Index 20.19%21.87% Period: Sep 4, 2003 – Feb 17, 2004
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16 Attribution Analysis Analyze determinants of portfolio performance Sector allocation decisions Equity selection decisions Sector Allocation and Equity Selection Effect Determinants Sector-wise weights and returns of the Portfolio Sector-wise weights and returns of the S&P 500 index Overall holding period returns of the S&P500 Analysis Period: Dec 26, 2003 – Feb 17, 2004 S&P 500 holding period return: 5.58% Portfolio holding period return: 3.27% Total value added: -2.31%
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17 Sector Allocation Effect SectorsWai - WpiRpi - Rp {(Wai - Wpi)* (Rpi - Rp)} Consumer Disc.20.17%-2.1386%-0.4314% Consumer Staples-5.03%-0.4047%0.0203% Energy-5.79%0.8799%-0.0510% Financials-15.25%2.2509%-0.3433% Health Care15.97%1.1151%0.1780% Industrials-1.82%-2.4278%0.0441% IT1.04%-0.8548%-0.0089% Materials-3.05%-5.1317%0.1565% Telecomm Services-3.38%7.6488%-0.2587% Utilities-2.85%-2.1540%0.0615% Sector Allocation Effect-0.6328% LEGEND Wa i -- MBA Wts As of Dec 26 2003 Wp i -- S&P Wts as of Dec 26 2003 Rp i -- S&P Sector returns {12/26 to 2/17} Rp -- S&P Overall Return {12/26 to 2/17} {(Wa i - Wp i )* (Rp i - Rp)} -- Sector Allocation Effect
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18 Equity Selection Effect SectorsWaiR ai - R pi Wai * Rai - Rpi Consumer Disc.31.46%0.873%0.27% Consumer Staples5.97%-2.375%-0.14% Energy0.00%-6.455%0.00% Financials5.38%-8.724%-0.47% Health Care29.28%0.757%0.22% Industrials9.15%-2.932%-0.27% IT18.77%-7.833%-1.47% Materials0.00%6.726%0.00% Telecomm Services0.00%-13.224%0.00% Utilities0.00%-3.421%0.00% Selection Effect-1.85% LEGEND Wa i -- MBA Wts As of Dec 26 2003 Ra i -- MBA SMF Sector Returns {12/26 to 2/17} Rp i -- S&P Sector returns {12/26 to 2/17} Rp -- S&P Overall Return {12/26 to 2/17} {(Wa i - Wp i )* (Rp i - Rp)} -- Sector Allocation Effect Total Value Added = Sector Allocation Effect + Equity Selection Effect = - 2.48%
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19 Attribution Analysis Observations from Analysis Impact of allocation effect more favorable than that of the selection effect Review both allocation & selection strategies Benefit from future investments in un-invested sectors Over-weighted Sectors Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, IT Under-weighted Sectors Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials Un-invested Sectors Utilities, Energy, Telecom
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20 Retrospection and Self-Analysis Sector Allocation Use S&P 500 Sector Allocation as a guide Make adjustments based on Industry Research Stock Selection Growth vs. Value Stocks Cyclical vs. Non-Cyclical Stocks Benchmark Risk Underperforming Stocks Sound Fundamentals vs. Poor Price Momentum Hold, Add, or Sell
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21 Outlook Continued economic strength Growth at a more moderate pace Continued stock market strength Modest interest rate increase
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22 Impact Overweight IT and Healthcare Be aware of interest rate sensitivity of holdings Select stocks leveraged to the current economic environment
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23 Activity Update As of Mar 05, 2004 Received additional $150,000 from the Foundation Initiated positions in: WAG, NXTL, CTSH Stock selection process underway
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24 Thank you University of Connecticut Foundation Inc. Investment Advisory Board Dr. Chinmoy Ghosh
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25 Questions?
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