1. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Commodities Back from the Dead!” With John Thomas from San Francisco, CA February 4, 2015 www.madhedgefundtrader.com www.madhedgefundtrader.com

2. MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons Buy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.comwww.madhedgefundtrader.com Honolulu, Hawaii April 3, 2015

3. Portfolio Review Running a Small Hedged Risk Averse Book Risk On World is Getting Better (FXY) 2/$84-$87 put spread10.00% Risk Off World is Getting Worse (T) 2/$35-$37 put spread-10.00% total net position0.00%

4. Trade Alert Performance Up on the Year! *January MTD +0.53% Final *February MTD +0.86% MTD *Trailing 1 year return +28.7% 2014 FINAL +30.31%, versus 7% for the Dow *First 216 weeks of Trading +154.2%!

5. Paid Subscriber Trailing 12 Month Return +28.7%

6. 50 Months Since Inception Averaged annualized +37.0%

7. Strategy Outlook-Hiding on the Sidelines *Collapsing oil and bond yield stall US stock markets, technical damage is worsening *Plummeting US rig count triggers an oil short covering rally, but the bottom is not in *Bonds continue bull run, targeting 1.37% for the 10 year *Euro and yen are exhausted on the downside, taking a break *Multiple crisis bring gold back to life *Generous snow, and mild temperatures bring new down leg for ags

8. The Jim Parker View The Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,500 upgrade Technical Set Up of the week - Waiting to see if stock rally holds Buy Biotechs, Industrials, Consumer Staples (PG) watch DAX for all risk guidance might be another $2 in oil Sell Short Avoid Gold is done for this cycle Dollar, is topping out Bonds until more convincing breakdown

9. The Global Economy-So it is the Economy! *US Q4 GDP slows from 5% to 2.6%, still above trend. *There is no recession on the horizon, but you have to let the fears work their way through the market first *Euro Consumer prices down -0.6% YOY, deflation rules *January Chicago PMI 58.8 to 59.4 on cheap gas *Expect Greece to live in the headlines, but there will be no real consequences *Expect to hear a lot about defaults in high cost oil producers, like Venezuela and Canada, presenting headline risk

10. Weekly Jobless Claims – New Lows! -43,000 to 265,000

11. Bonds-Reaching a Crescendo Gunning for 1.36% *All Fixed Income are Putting in Blow Off Tops *German ten year bunds now lower than JGB yields *US 10 Year Treasury poised to test record low 1.36% yield set in 2012, (TBT) aiming at $37 handle *Fed not to raise interest rates until 2016, reinforced by oil and bond yield crashes *Deflation is here to stay *A short term top may be in

12. Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 1.62% Is This the Top?

13. Ten Year Treasuries ($TNX) 1.62%

14. 30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 2.22% Ditto Here

15. Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.09% Yield The New Lead Contract

16. 2X Short Treasuries (TBT) stopped out of a 10% long position-Potential move to $37

17. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) 3.05% Yield

18. Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 5.20% Yield

19. Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.62% yield, Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

20. Stocks-Turning the Corner *This is another 5%-10% correction, not a new bear market, if bonds make a run to 1.36%, it will be 10% more than 5% *Hard bounce in commodities and their stocks add 500 points to Dow in 2 days *The entire commodity space moved in unison, including ags and solar *This is creating a great entry point for 2015 for the best non oil sectors, like technology, health care, and solar *Several technical services said the bottom was in on Tuesday, after the 500 point rally, ad that we are running to new highs *Volatility to stay high

21. S&P 500- Consolidation Within Long Term Uptrend took profits on the 2/$189/$194 call spread

22. A Perfect Head and Shoulders Top S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)

23. Dow Average-Targeting 16,400?

24. NASDAQ (QQQ)-

25. Equal Weight Technology (RYT)- A Head and Should Top that is breaking Down

26. Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-Demolished by Russia

27. (VIX)-Setting up a Triple top

28. Russell 2000 (IWM)-Consolidating after Breakout Took profits on the 2/$107-$112 vertical bull call spread

29. Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)

30. Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)

31. Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL) another head and shoulders top

32. Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary (RCD) Yet, another head and shoulders top in an economically sensitive sector

33. Financial Select SPDR (XLF)-Complete Breakdown

34. Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)

35. Apple (AAPL) –

36. Small Cap Financials (PSCF)- A head and shoulders top in an interest rate sensitive sector

37. Alcoa (AA)- took profits on the 2/$17-$18 vertical bear put spread

38. Gilead Sciences (GILD)- took profits on the 2/$85-$90 vertical bull call spread guidance disappointment delivers 10% hit, and another entry point

39. AT&T (T)- long 2/$35-$37 vertical bear put spread

40. China (FXI)-

41. Japan (DXJ)-Hedged Japan Equity

42. Emerging Markets (EFA)- Biggest Beneficiaries of Cheap Oil-Go figure

43. India (EPI) –Biggest Beneficiary of Cheap Oil

44. Russia (RSX)

45. Foreign Currencies- Digesting Moves *European QE arrives five years late, crashes Euro, as predicted here *BOJ to buy Y80 trillion in bonds this year, the MOF to issue only Y40 trillion, the rest to be spent on stocks? *Reserve Bank of Australia cuts rates to 25 BP to 2.25%, record low *Currency area has gone to sleep to digest recent moves

46. Euro ($XEU), (FXE), (EUO)-Taking a Rest Targeting $105, and then $85

47. Long Dollar Index (UUP) New Four Year High

48. British Pound (FXB)-

49. Japanese Yen (FXY)- long 2/$84-$87 vertical bear put spread

50. Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)

51. Australian Dollar (FXA) –New Four Year Low

52. Chinese Yuan- (CYB)

53. Emerging Market Currencies (CEW) Dragged down by commodities collapse

54. Energy-More Pain to Come *New US fracking supplies still coming on stream, will add 500,000 b/d over next six months, Cushing rapidly approaching capacity at 1.5 million barrels *US rig count plunge from 1,609 to 1,223 in 3 months triggers oil short covering rally *Crude prices may keep falling until spring, when demand seasonally fades *With 3%-3.5% global growth in 2015, 1.1 million b/d in new demand arises *This year will be the bottom, but where and when is anybody’s guess, 15% of US production now losing money *Pros scaling into quality now, will continue for rest of year *Chevron cuts capex by 13% to $35 billion *We will be back to $70/barrel in 2 years

55. Oil-Trying to Find a Bottom

56. United States Oil Fund (USO )

57. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE )

58. MLP’s (LINE) 13% Yield-Capitulation Sell Off stopped out of a long a 10% Position, out a day early

59. Exxon (XOM)

60. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stopped out of the 2/$70-$75 vertical bull call spread

61. Conoco Phillips (COP)

62. Natural Gas (UNG)-

63. Copper-

64. Freeport McMoRan (FCX )- New Lows

65. Precious Metals-A Bear Market Rally *Vix spike creates a tradable rally *But it may be over for now *Charts starting to put in a convincing, multi month bottom, setting up a trading rally *Gold is trading off oil like everything else, weak oil = strong gold, so expect more trading rallies to come *Biggest moves in the Miners (GDX) and Barrack Gold (ABX)

66. Gold-An Upside breakout with a throwback

67. Barrick Gold (ABX)-

68. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX) New Friends

69. Silver (SLV)-

70. Silver Miners (SIL)

71. Agriculture *Oil rallies feeds into ags as well *Snow cover with not too cold temperatures helping yields, hurting prices *US grain now the world’s most expensive, thanks to strong dollar *2015 will be another record crop without extreme weather *Pass for now

72. (CORN) –

73. (SOYB)-

74. Ag Commodities ETF (DBA)

75. Real Estate-Gone to Sleep *Big hits in housing stocks hint of slow market this year *Waiting for new wage growth to boost demand, but it could be a long wait *To see the market this quiet with interest rates this low is amazing *Waiting for rising rents to drag up home prices

76. October S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index +14% YOY down to +4.5%, Still Slowing

77. US Home Construction Index (ITB)

78. Trade Sheet So What Do We Do About All This? *Stocks- buy the dips, with technology and health care leading, we’re running to new highs *Bonds- stand aside, its gone crazy *Commodities-stand aside until global economy recovers *Currencies- sell every Euro rally forever, and the yen too *Precious Metals –don’t chase up here, wait for dip *Volatility-is peaking, get ready to sell *The Ags –stand aside until next season *Real estate- stand aside, the dead cat bounce is done

79. To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please go to: www.madhedgefundtrader.com Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 Wednesday, February 18, 2015 Live from Incline Village, NV www.madhedgefundtrader.com Good Luck and Good Trading !