1. CS499 Senior research project Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics Shin. Jeongkyu, Dept. of Physics, POSTECH Leading Prof. Kim. Daejin

2. 2 Progress Make a controlled environment that have some fluctuations like weather in nature (~4.13) Do an experiment about some situations.(~4.20) Make new simple equations for explaining.(~4.30) Write a program that can simulate those situations using new theory and equations.(~5.13) Make a tutor program and manual.(~5.30) Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

3. 3 Theoretical explanation(1) Logistic map  Simple nonlinear maps could have very complicated dynamics.  Simple question : Fish in a pond problem How the population of fish changes? Simplest example – By changing r, we can see the variety in this dynamics. Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

4. 4 Theoretical explanation(2) Periodic doubling  Can see when r is increased.  Universal : Feigenbaum constant. (1980) Chaos and Periodic windows  The limit value of r exists. What happens if we choose r over limited?  Bifurcation diagram. Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

5. 5 Theoretical explanation(3) Example : Bifurcation Diagram Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

6. 6 Ideas & Requirements(1) The Sun heats ocean when daytime, and it turns cold when night comes. It seems to a 1-dimensional map problem. Basic assumption : A beaker with water as ocean, timer customized hot plate as the Sun. Change the time difference as a factor of this system. Expectation : Will it look like a quadratic equation? Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

7. 7 Ideas & Requirements(2) Setting and measures  Hot plate with a electric timer  A digital thermometer that can write several data directly to the computer using RS232C pt. Seems not to exist at POSTECH. Have a plan to make it.  Laboratory that has a confined environment for doing experiments. Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics

8. 8 Reference Steven H. Strogatz. Nonlinear dynamics and chaos, 1 st ed. Westbook press, 2000, Part III.(chaos) Weather forecast simulation using Nonlinear dynamics