1. WRAP Decision and Data Support Systems Tom Moore | Western Governors’ Association Shawn McClure | Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere December 6, 2007

2. Acknowledgments Based on WRAP work 1997-2007 –Experience with §309 Haze SIPs submitted 12/03 –Need to distill key information for haze planning across wide variety of air programs in the West Thanks to: –WRAP Forums and Workgroups - Too many individuals to list all Attribution of Haze – Steve Arnold (CO) & Bob Kotchenruther (EPA-R10) Implementation & Planning – Tina Anderson (WY) & Mike Edwards (ID) Modeling – John Vimont (NPS), Mary Uhl (NM), Kevin Briggs (CO) Monitoring & Data Analysis – Marc Pitchford (NOAA) 100s involved – feds, tribes, states, industry, enviros –TSS Development Team – Shawn McClure (CIRA), Joe Adlhoch (Air Resource Specialists), Gerry Mansell (ENVIRON) & others –EPA funding –In-kind staff work from many agencies & organizations - 1,000s of hours Purpose of talk is to report out progress to date and plans for the future

3. What is the TSS? http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/ A decision support system for regional haze planning in the West, expandable to other air quality indicators and/or additional geographic areas The TSS provides analytical results from data support systems and display tools to support regional haze planning, to improve visibility for the 118 Class I areas in the WRAP region. The TSS is a one-stop-shop for access, visualization, analysis, and retrieval of the technical data and regional analytical results - consolidating information about air quality monitoring, emissions inventories and models, source apportionment results, and gridded air quality/visibility regional modeling simulations.

4. Why does the TSS exist? What makes it different from from other “web-based data systems”? Designed to be a true decision support system addressing regulatory requirements of Regional Haze Rule Brings comprehensive and consistent regional data and analysis results to planners for each Class I area Presents information required for regional haze planning, as defined by air quality planners Integrates multiple datasets from regional analyses (monitoring, emissions, source apportionment, modeling) into displays and formats suitable for air quality planning Provides documentation and summary explanations of technical results Data are derived from projects and data support systems developed by WRAP members

5. 5 WRAP Technical Information Centers Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. http://www.wrapedms.org/http://www.wrapedms.org/ Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. http://www.coha.dri.edu/http://www.coha.dri.edu/ Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS): FETS is a database with a web interface for planned and unplanned fire events. Users can map fire data on-screen, and query the database for downloads in model-ready formats formats. http://www.wrapfets.org/http://www.wrapfets.org/ The Technical Support System integrates results from these data support systems under one web-based umbrella. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tsshttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss Data Support Systems Decision Support System

6. 6 WRAP Data Sources – Monitoring States to use IMPROVE monitoring program data to track progress under RHR –Calculate Baseline (2000-04) visibility conditions –Estimate Natural visibility conditions –Project future [2018] visibility conditions (in conjunction with the AQ model), as first planning period of 60-year implementation Focus is on average of the 20% Worst and Best visibility days Data are used to calculate visibility impairment expressed as extinction, deciviews, or visual range

7. 7 WRAP region IMPROVE Monitoring Locations

8. 8 Baseline Extinction for 20% Worst Days

9. 9 Visibility Information Exchange Web System

10. 10 WRAP Causes of Haze Assessment

11. 11 Emissions/Modeling Domain

12. 12 WRAP Emissions Data Management System

13. 13 WRAP Fire Emissions Tracking System

14. 14 WRAP Regional Modeling Center

15. 15 WRAP Data Sources – Apportionment WRAP’s attribution analysis included tagging SOx and NOx emissions by source category and region, then following those emissions through the model (CAMx model + PM Source Apportionment Technology, or PSAT) PSAT attribution results help WRAP states to: –Estimate what percentage of measured sulfate and nitrate aerosol mass is due to specific WRAP states –Estimate what contributions to haze might be coming from outside the WRAP or outside the U.S. –Determine which states to consult with on visibility issues PSAT results should be viewed in relative terms among source regions and between emissions scenarios

16. 16 CAMx/PSAT Source Region Definitions

17. 17 WRAP Data Sources – Weighted Emissions WRAP’s Weighted Emissions Potential (WEP) analysis was designed as a screening tool for states, similar to but less rigorous than the PSAT analysis WEP does not account for chemistry and removal processes WEP relies on an integration of gridded emissions data, meteorological back trajectory residence time data, a one-over- distance factor to approximate deposition, and a normalization of the final results EmissionsResidence Times Weighted Emissions X=

19. Where does TSS fit in? Now (2007-08) –Source of planning data & results for western haze plans –Implementation support Review and approval by EPA Annual data update cycle to track progress –Emissions –Monitoring –Periodic source apportionment, modeling, and control strategy analyses Basis of 60-year RHR program – states set goals, EPA partners with states to verify progress Version control to make TSS data use transparent

20. WRAP Regional Work

21. Future plans for Data Support Systems & TSS –Future (2009 and onward) Source of visibility progress/tracking data & analysis results for western haze plans Development to support one-atmosphere air quality planning and regional control strategies –Continuing haze plan implementation –Regional contribution analyses and results for Ozone and PM NAAQS issues, supporting state and local planning efforts –Analyses of mercury and nitrogen deposition –Continuing annual data update cycle to track progress »Emissions »Monitoring »Periodic source apportionment, modeling, & control strategy analyses –Integration of additional data (satellite, control costs, changes in energy supply, et cetera) –Continuing version control to make TSS data use transparent

22. WRAP 2008 Workshops Members of WRAP Committees, Forums, and Workgroups, as well as members of additional organizations not currently active in the regional haze effort will meet to: –Identify strengths and weaknesses of existing data and analysis tools; –Determine uses and limitations of those data and tools; –Develop coordination efforts needed with ongoing and planned State/Tribal/Federal projects; –Discuss timing, effort, activities, and any needed changes in future projects by WRAP contractors –Document results for work planning purposes & next steps

23. WRAP 2008 Workshops, cont. Monitoring Data Analysis Workshop –2-day workshop, targeted for April will address monitoring methods, network operations, and data analysis activities for Ozone, PM, haze, mercury, and N deposition data Emissions & Modeling Analysis Workshop –2-day workshop, targeted for July will address emissions and modeling studies related to Ozone, PM, haze, mercury, and N deposition Technical Data Needs for Air Quality Planning Workshop –2-day workshop, targeted for September will bring forward technical data and analysis capabilities from the earlier workshops to address 2009-12 air quality control and management planning needs for: Haze plan implementation – how/what to do Defining data, studies, & results needed for air quality planning - ozone, PM, mercury, N deposition

24. WRAP 2009-12 Activities Track, report, and conduct needed analyses of progress for regional haze; Determine regional contributions to Ozone and PM health and welfare standards’ nonattainment issues at various scales; Understanding and analyzing the nature and causes of mercury, acid deposition, and critical loads in the West; Assess air quality changes from emissions management strategies and programs; and In concert with emerging efforts to manage and adapt to climate change, fully integrate data for both energy supply and use as well as greenhouse gas emissions into air quality analyses.

25. 25 How Haze Planners Are Using The TSS

26. 26 TSS Home Page

27. 27 TSS Haze Planning Page – Site Selection

28. 28 TSS Haze Planning Page – Tool Selection

29. 29 TSS Monitoring Data Review Tools

30. 30 TSS Emissions Data Mapping Tool

31. 31 TSS Apportionment (PSAT) Review Tool

32. 32 TSS Weighted Emissions (WEP) Review Tool

33. 33 TSS Visibility Projections Tool Deciview Glide Path (required by the RHR) Species Extinction Glide Paths (not defined in RHR guidance; used by states to understand progress expected by species)

34. Conclusions & Discussion Questions Where do the WRAP systems fit in with efforts by states/EPA/other federal agencies? –Data support for nature, causes, and control strategy development –Decision support for regulatory planning, review, and progress tracking Are there obvious functional limitations of the WRAP data support systems or TSS? Are there specific “smart” ideas that EPA would like the WRAP to consider for future development?

35. Contacts Tom Moore WRAP – Air Quality Program Manager, WGA w/ 970.491.8837 e/ MooreT@cira.colostate.eduMooreT@cira.colostate.edu Shawn McClure CIRA – Software Engineer, Research Associate III w/ 970.491.8455 e/ McClure@cira.colostate.eduMcClure@cira.colostate.edu Joe Adlhoch Air Resource Specialists – Vice President/Project Manager w/ 970.484.7941 e/ JAdlhoch@air-resource.comJAdlhoch@air-resource.com Gerry Mansell ENVIRON - Senior Manager w/ 415.899.0727 e/ gmansell@environcorp.comgmansell@environcorp.com