1. Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS Chris Leonardi Aviation Focal Point, NWS Charleston WV National Weather Association Annual Meeting October 19, 2006

2. NWS Charleston WV The past As has been the case for decades, the NWS offers text products in support of aviation… …but what are the problems with these products?

3. NWS Charleston WV The problems Limited to a few specific airportsLimited to a few specific airports Of particular concern since the FAA wants to greatly increase (2-3 times) the number of TAFsOf particular concern since the FAA wants to greatly increase (2-3 times) the number of TAFs Generally skewed towards commercial interests and not the general aviation communityGenerally skewed towards commercial interests and not the general aviation community Hard to get a sense of overall current/forecast weather patternHard to get a sense of overall current/forecast weather pattern Where’s the front?Where’s the front? How will the fog set up across the area?How will the fog set up across the area? Collaboration between WFOs is spotty at bestCollaboration between WFOs is spotty at best No graphical presentationNo graphical presentation

4. NWS Charleston WV National Gridded Forecast Database (NDFD) 2.5km resolution database of various weather parameters like temperature, wind, sky cover, etc. But what about aviation specific parameters like ceiling height and visibility???

5. NWS Charleston WV The new grids In addition to relevant NDFD parameters (Sky, Wx, Wind, PoP), we have added the following: PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds of feet (0-250) PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds of feet (0-250) Ceiling if Sky ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer otherwiseCeiling if Sky ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer otherwise Internal Collaboration grid…also used with Sky to construct CigHgt grid for web displayInternal Collaboration grid…also used with Sky to construct CigHgt grid for web display CigHgt – ceiling height in feet (0-25000) CigHgt – ceiling height in feet (0-25000) Ceiling height if sky >57%, otherwise no ceilingCeiling height if sky >57%, otherwise no ceiling Generated as last step (totally dependent on Sky/PredHgtGenerated as last step (totally dependent on Sky/PredHgt Source of external web graphicSource of external web graphic Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10) Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10)

6. NWS Charleston WV More grid details Updated 4 times a day at main issuance times (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z)Updated 4 times a day at main issuance times (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) Generated on an hourly basis out to 30 hoursGenerated on an hourly basis out to 30 hours Represent prevailing conditions only (ie. no TEMPOs)Represent prevailing conditions only (ie. no TEMPOs) Loose collaboration with PBZ/JKL on PredHgt/VsbyLoose collaboration with PBZ/JKL on PredHgt/Vsby

7. NWS Charleston WV

8. What tools do we use? High-resolution spatial/temporal model data High-resolution spatial/temporal model data –LAMP (NGM-based), LAV (GFS-based) –Local models (WSEta, WRF) –NCAR NCV grids GFE smart tools/procedures GFE smart tools/procedures –Model ingest tools for LAV/WRF/NCV data –Tools for improved manipulation/interpolation of data –Tools for exact placement of fog

9. NWS Charleston WV How do we generate grids? Here is a typical “smart tool” to generate grids based on expected fog:

10. NWS Charleston WV How do we generate grids? Here are examples of the grids that are created. Note the level of detail that these tools allow us to work with!

11. NWS Charleston WV Application of grids – Element images PNG images are created from these grids and posted to our web page.

12. NWS Charleston WV Application of grids – Point aviation forecasts We can also display ceiling/visibility forecast information anywhere in our CWA – NOT just for TAF sites!

13. NWS Charleston WV How do I get this information? Go to http://weather.gov/charlestonwv http://weather.gov/charlestonwv For a point specific plot of ceiling/visibility: Enter your city/state or zip code OR click on the map at a location of interest… On the next page, click on “Hourly Weather Graph”

14. NWS Charleston WV Where else can I see all this neat stuff?!? It’s all available NOW on the NWS Charleston Aviation Page! http://weather.gov/charlestonwv/aviation/aviation.php

15. NWS Charleston WV Application of grids – Skeleton TAFs We can import the grids into AvnFPS to create first- guess TAFs.

16. NWS Charleston WV Gridded TAF +/- Positives: Positives: Quick writing of TAFs…*if* sufficient work has been put into gridsQuick writing of TAFs…*if* sufficient work has been put into grids Potential to generate many more TAFs than previously possiblePotential to generate many more TAFs than previously possible Potential for quick area-wide amendmentsPotential for quick area-wide amendments Negatives: Negatives: No TEMPOs generated (can be typed in)No TEMPOs generated (can be typed in) Only one cloud layer generated (can type in more)Only one cloud layer generated (can type in more) Copy/paste/deleting can be cumbersomeCopy/paste/deleting can be cumbersome Local effects tricky to include at timesLocal effects tricky to include at times

17. NWS Charleston WV These are all good services… but what about the numbers?

18. NWS Charleston WV Verification comparison Comparing FY05 to FY06 GPRA standards: IFR POD IFR POD – Roughly the same for each year, but still below goal –Winter performance better than FY05, summer performance worse than FY05 IFR FAR IFR FAR –Improved in FY06 –Both winter and summer saw improvement IFR CSI is slightly improved in FY06 IFR CSI is slightly improved in FY06

19. NWS Charleston WV Seasonal breakdown Why the winter season improvement? Why the winter season improvement? “Systemic” thinking “Systemic” thinking Fewer TEMPOs Fewer TEMPOs Why the summer struggles? Why the summer struggles? Local effects vs. synoptic effectsLocal effects vs. synoptic effects Fewer TEMPOs = worse IFR fog/storm performance?Fewer TEMPOs = worse IFR fog/storm performance?

20. NWS Charleston WV Overall picture? Our statistical performance has remained steady (or improved slightly) – and new services are being offered.

21. NWS Charleston WV The challenges Verification statistics still need to improve Verification statistics still need to improve –Winter has shown definite improvement –Summer has been similar to past years…we need further work here Forecaster work load has increased significantly Forecaster work load has increased significantly Difficult to forecast local phenomena in grids Difficult to forecast local phenomena in grids –Fog –Elevation effects on ceiling –Short-term visibility restrictions in precip Need more model/science-based tools Need more model/science-based tools

22. NWS Charleston WV The next steps Publicity for gridded aviation products Publicity for gridded aviation products –Letter/visits to airports –Fly-ins/talks with flying clubs Inclusion of TEMPO grids Inclusion of TEMPO grids –Automatic inclusion in TAFs –Short, targeted TEMPO groups could improve summer performance Further improvement of model data and smart tools (RUC13, NCV) Further improvement of model data and smart tools (RUC13, NCV) Tighter collaboration with neighboring offices (CWSUs?) Tighter collaboration with neighboring offices (CWSUs?) Ultimate goal – highly detailed 3D aviation database across the CONUS (interactive route forecasts!)Ultimate goal – highly detailed 3D aviation database across the CONUS (interactive route forecasts!)

23. NWS Charleston WV Questions?