1. National Scrapie Eradication July 2015 Monthly Report National Scrapie Eradication Program July 2015 Monthly Report Fiscal Year 2015 U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Veterinary Services Surveillance, Response and Preparedness Services Sheep and Goat Health Program August 15, 2015

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3. INTRODUCTION - Program Summary At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull black face sheep found positive at slaughter was 0.02 percent. This measure decreased by 51 percent compared to FY 2013 and 98 percent compared to FY 2003. This value is currently 0.02 percent (Chart 1). Eight source flocks (including 2 goat herds) and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2013. Three source flocks and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2014 (Chart 2), a decrease of 45 percent. One infected and three source flocks have been designated in FY 2015. At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color* was 0.018 percent and is currently at 0.003 percent for FY 2015 (Chart 3). This measure has decreased by 84 percent compared to FY 2014 and by 98 percent compared to FY 2003. In November 2014, the first positive goat found through RSSS was identified. Based on the goats sampled at slaughter to date, the prevalence of scrapie in U.S. cull goats is 0.004 percent with an upper 95 percent confidence limit of 0.013 percent. Chart 3a was added to the December 2014 report to show the percent positive goats at slaughter each FY since FY 2011. * See slide 4 for an explanation of adjusted weights. Introduction - Program Summary

4. INTRODUCTION - Positive Cases and Infected/Source Flocks Positive Scrapie Cases* Thirty two positive cases, 30 sheep and 2 goats, have been reported in FY 2015. The last positive case was reported in March 2015. Twenty six of the positive sheep were from the same source flock. Location of the cases is shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, and distribution by face- color (sheep) and type (goats) is shown in Table 2. The 2 positive goat cases found in FY 2015 increases the number of confirmed cases in goats since FY 2002 to 41 (Figure 2). Infected and Source Flocks As of July 31, 2015, there were 3 flocks with an open source status (Figure 3). One infected and 3 source flocks have been designated in FY 2015 (Figure 4); 5 flocks completed a flock clean-up plan and were released (Figure 5). New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 2. * Samples collected between October 1, 2014 and July 31, 2015 and confirmed by August 15, 2015. CandNew Infected/Source Flocks

5. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 1) Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 476,265 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 477 NVSL confirmed positive animals* (469 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. As of July 31, 2015, 32,527 samples have been collected in FY 2015, 26,739 from sheep and 5,788 from goats. As of July 31, 2015, 2 black-faced sheep** and 1 goat have tested positive for scrapie in FY 2015; this is the first positive goat case found through RSSS. The last RSSS positive was reported in January 2015. The weighted percentage of samples from sheep that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through FY 2015 is depicted in Chart 3***; percent positive goats are shown in Chart 3a. In November 2013, administrative units within APHIS Veterinary Services reorganized from 2 Regions to 6 Districts (Figure 6). The distribution of sheep and goat populations by District is depicted in Chart 4a. The number of animals collected for FY 2015 by District where collected is shown in Chart 4b. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 5. Chart 6 is a retrospective 6-month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collection sites. * RSSS positives are reported based on collection date and may have been confirmed after July 31, 2015. ** One RSSS black-faced sheep was an American Black Belly (hair sheep). *** White, black and mottled face color sheep are weighted based on population. White faced sheep have the highest weight, so when the rare white face positive sheep is found it causes this statistic to markedly increase. Goats and other face colored sheep are not included in this calculation. Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)

6. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 2) On-Farm Surveillance Testing sheep and goats on-farm is an essential part of scrapie surveillance. It includes both regulatory testing of scrapie exposed and potentially exposed sheep and goats and testing sheep and goats on farm for routine surveillance. As of July 31, 2015, 1,337 sheep and 452 goats have been tested on-farm in FY 2015. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2015 is shown in Chart 7. Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing As of July 31, 2015, 34,316 animals have been sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2015: 32,527 RSSS samples and 1,789 on-farm samples (Chart 8); Of which 28,076 were sheep and 6,240 were goats. Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 9. Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

7. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 3) State Sampling Minimums The National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep and goat sampling minimums for each State, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These State minimums help ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. The calculations used to derive the sampling minimums are described in the National Scrapie Surveillance Plan. The State sampling minimums for sheep and goats, and the total number of animals sampled by State of Animal ID, are provided in the slides listed below. The percent prorated sampling minimum for sheep and goats achieved by each State in FY 2015 are depicted in Figure 7 and Figure 8. District 1Table 3District 4Table 6 District 2Table 4District 5Table 7 District 3Table 5District 6Table 8 Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

8. INTRODUCTION - Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP) As of July 31, 2015, there were 450 flocks participating in the Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP). Statuses of these flocks were 145 export monitored, 21 export certified, and 284 select monitored flocks (Figure 9). SFCP enrolled flocks in Puerto Rico were added to the total, starting with the March 2015 report. SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 2007 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 10. The current status of participating flocks is available to the public on the SFCP Web Page. 1 The current version of the SFCP standards was published June 20, 2013. A copy of the standards can be downloaded from APHIS’ SFCP Web Page. 1 Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status. This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database. Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

9. * As of July 31, 2015—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled- and white- faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 1) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - By Face Color - Fiscal Year (2003 – 2015*)

10. * As of July 31, 2015. (Chart 2) Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by Year - Fiscal Years 1997 to 2015*

11. * As of July 31, 2015. Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 3) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Weighted by Face Color Fiscal Years 2003 to 2015*

12. (Chart 3a) Percent of RSSS Goat Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Fiscal Year (2011 – 2015*) * As of July 31, 2015.

13. (Table 1) FY 2015* Scrapie Confirmed Cases by State As of July 31, 2015 State SheepGoats RSSSOn-FarmRSSSOn-Farm CO0111 ID02600 OH1000 WI1100 Total All States 22811

14. (Table 2) FY 2015 Scrapie Confirmed Cases by Face Color (sheep) and Type (goats) As of July 31, 2015 Collection Type Sheep by Face ColorGoats by Type Black- faced Mottled- faced White-facedDairyMeat RSSS2*0001 On-Farm6*51710 Total851711 * One of these black-faced sheep was an American Black Belly (hair sheep).

15. Scrapie Confirmed Cases FY 2015 As of July 31, 2015 WY WV WI 1/1 WA VT UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1 # NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN ID 26 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1*/2 CA AZ AR AK AL Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical32932 (Nor98- like) (0) Total32932 VA IL (Figure 1) * First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014. # RSSS positive case with IN serial tag was traced to OH. MD – 2

16. WY WV WIWI WA 1 VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 5 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI 6 ME MD – 2 MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA 7 HI GA FL DE CT CO 1*/4 CA 13 AZ 1 AR AK AL (Figure 2) Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2015 As of July 31, 2015 Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical14041 (Nor98-like)(0) Total14041 * First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014.

17. WY WV WI 1 WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1 CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 3) Open Source – 2 Open Infected – 1 Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses - As of July 31, 2015 MD

18. WY WV WI 1 WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL ID 1 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1 CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 4) New Source – 3 New Infected – 1 New Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2015 - As of July 31, 2015 MD

19. WY WV WI WA VT VA 1 UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY-1 KS IN IL 1 ID 1 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1 CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 5) Completed Clean-Up Plan and Released – 5 Released Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2015 - As of July 31, 2015

20. WY WV WI WA VT VI VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PR PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL District One District Two District Three District Four District Five District Six (Figure 6) Surveillance Preparedness and Response Services (SPRS) Districts

21. Total Sheep and Goat Populations by VS District FY 2015* (Chart 4a) * Source: NASS Sheep and Goat January 30, 2015. ** Includes sheep and goats residing in the Navajo Nation. Sheep Goats

22. Total Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by VS District Where Collected FY 2015* (Chart 4b) * As of July 31, 2015. Sheep Goats

23. (Chart 5) Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by Month Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 As of July 31, 2015 Month * Surveillance numbers were significantly lower October 2013 compared to October in prior FYs because the furlough reduced the number of collection days.

24. * As of July 31, 2015. Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock. (Chart 6) Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep Sampled at Slaughter*

25. On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Month and Species - FY 2015* (Chart 7) * As of July 31, 2015. Increase in March was due to depopulation of exposed sheep.

26. Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter - FY 2015* (Chart 8) * As of July 31, 2015. ** Includes all regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance.

27. * As of July 31, 2015. (Chart 9) RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Species - FY 2015*

28. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 1 (Table 3) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WV VT VA RI PA NY NJ NH NC ME MD MA DE CT Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Connecticut1627234 Delaware3653 Maine9358235 Maryland631103792 Massachusetts355687 New Hampshire674094 New Jersey2276710 New York68547027741 North Carolina28115012175 Pennsylvania30158524362 Rhode Island10911 Vermont11780328 Virginia42353012659 West Virginia3022205624

29. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 2 (Table 4) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. TN SC GA FL AL Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Alabama1131197059 Florida28732365 Georgia8010415568 South Carolina50629349 Tennessee1,295230131141

30. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 3 (Table 5) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WI OH MN MI KY INIL IA Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Illinois954360283125 Indiana1,27734058648 Iowa1,73858995349 Kentucky47131035584 Michigan1,621430141189 Minnesota1,2805889142 Ohio1,785587359426 Wisconsin1,35252010580

31. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 4 (Table 6) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. TX OK MS LA AR MO Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Arkansas7410224247 Louisiana58453023 Mississippi40695130 Missouri664530520105 Oklahoma174420233111 Texas464597104597

32. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 5 (Table 7) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WY SD NE ND MT KS ID Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Idaho6655934520 Kansas2803909243 Montana1,4875934613 Nebraska4525405223 North Dakota770410164 South Dakota2,5175945710 Wyoming1,460595338

33. WA UT OR NV NM HI CO CA AZ AK FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 6 (Table 8) * As of July 31, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Alaska12501 Arizona182008782 California576595317588 Colorado1,217593232243 Hawaii52891312 Nevada905505217 New Mexico1122366813 Oregon69559020042 Utah7325944315 Washington330340100209

34. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 99% 100% + Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Sheep* * As of July 31, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 82% of the annual sampling minimum. (Figure 7)

35. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 99% 100% + Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Goats* * As of July 31, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 83% of the annual sampling minimum. AK, RI and DE have a sampling minimum of 1. IA and MD had a large increase in their minimums due to finding an infected herd in each State in FY 2014. (Figure 8)

36. Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating Flocks As of July 31, 2015 Total Enrolled Flocks--450 Export Monitored—145 Export Certified—21 Select Monitored—284 (includes 15 in Puerto Rico) WY 5 WV 1 WI 21 WA 13 VA 3 UT 4 TX 0 TN-13 SD 6 SC 16 RI-2 PA 44 OR 10 OK 5 OH 3 NY 5 NV 2 NM 3 NJ-12 NE 6 ND 0 NC-12 MT 4 MS 11 MO 2 MN 7 MI 7 ME 23 MD-1 MA-8 LA 7 KY-13 KS 5 IN 31 IL 8 ID 9 IA 6 HI 22 GA 15 FL 15 DE-0 CT-12 CO 1 CA 5 AZ 0 AR 0 AK 1 AL 8 VT 17 NH-11 (Figure 9) PR 15

37. SFCP Participating Flocks FY 2007 to FY 2015* * As of July 31, 2015. Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status. Enrolled flocks in Puerto Rico are included, beginning with the March 2015 report. (Chart 10)