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Let Me See: Visualizing Actuarial Information Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D. Vice President, Information Systems & Technology aleksey@commrisk.com C OMMERCIAL R ISK
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Actuarial Process Data Collection, Cleanup and Transformation Application of Agorithms and Methods Representation of Results 0
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Actuarial Process 1 Algorithms Results Data
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Ideal Actuarial System An ideal actuarial processing solution is a a) transparent to users and b) highly efficient storage/retrieval system for c) structured actuarial data (objects) with d) an extremely flexible, e) computationally complete, f) open calculation engine and g) integrated, h) automated and i) interactive report generator 2
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Actuarially-Centric Systems Insurance companies build their computer systems around their strengths: u Claims u Accounting u Underwriting Actuarial Functionality is always an afterthought 2a
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Human perception Relies heavily on Short-Term Memory. Problems with STM: u Can hold only 5-7 similar similar items at once u It’s a “ buffer ”: new info erases old information u Even without distractions can hold info only for 30 seconds 2b
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Data-Driven Technologies 2c Adaptive Reporting Visualization Alarm Systems
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Adaptive Reporting Adaptive Reporting u Filtering u Sorting u Outlining u Conditional Formatting u OLAP-enabled tools 2d
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Adaptive Reporting: Filtering 3 Auto-Filter in Excel u Plain-Vanilla Filtering u Checking Distinct Values u Adaptive Filtering (through VBA)
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Adaptive Reporting: Outlining 4 Outlining in Excel u Hierarchical view u Different level of details u Subtotals Master-Detail relationship in Access
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Adaptive Reporting: Sorting 5 Does not reduce amount of information displayed Brings most important info on top or up front Requires definition of importance
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Adaptive Reporting: Dynamic Formatting 6 Conditional Formatting in Excel u allows users to define font color border background pattern of a cell as a function of the values in other cells
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Adaptive Reporting: OLAP (Online Analitycal Processing) 7 Pivot Tables and OLAP cubes in Excel u Combine Filtering Outlining Sorting u Add on-the-fly processing Calculated Field Calculated Item u Data Source is not limited by 65,536 rows
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Visualization: Charts 8 There is a chart for every occasion: u line chart for displaying increases u bar for shares u pedestal for ranks u Gantt for schedules But what about actuarial triangles?
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Visualization: Charts 8a
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Visualization: Maps 9 Maps in Microsoft MapPoint: Colors Shapes Glyphs Isosurfaces u Links to Office applications u VBA
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Visualization: Animation 10 If a picture is worth a thousand words, then an animation is worth a thousand pictures “ selective attention ”: people react on any movement (change in color, shape or position) u display of different stages in the motion u displacement plots u time animations u streamlines (traces) For actuaries: iterations of simulation!
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Visualization: Visual Tools 11 Making actuarial selections interactively, directly on the chart Instant visual feedback Changing parameters during animation: invaluable for DFA
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Alarm Systems: Data Quality 12 Alarm System triggers an action whenever problem is found: u creates record in the log u sends e-mail u stops processing u runs additional tests
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Alarm Systems: Algorithms Applicability 13 Actuarial assumptions testing u Mack u Murphy u Zehnwirth
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Alarm Systems: Digital Dashboard 14 Portal to the most important info u Corporate u Professional u Personal Dashboard’s space limitations re- emphasize the necessity of space- conscious reporting techniques!
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Conclusion 15 For effective use of computerized reporting tools available to actuaries, it is imperative to define measurable indicators of actuarial significance…
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Conclusion 15 “ The gods help them that help themselves.” Aesop
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Me.About Actuarially related activities: Prize for the best article in the “Data Management discussion paper” call (1997). Creation and distribution of actuarial software Triangle Maker® (1994), Triangle Maker® Pro (1997), Actuarial Toolchest™ (1998), Enabler™ (1999) Design, development and coding of the 2nd and 3rd (current) generation of Affinity (1996) Promotion of notions like Ideal Actuarial System and Data Quality Shield, and paradigms like object-oriented actuarial software and data-driven visualization. Presently developing an integrated pricing/reserving/DFA computer system for reinsurance and also an action/adventure computer game tentatively called “Actuarial Judgement”. An active member of several scientific societies and an author of almost 20 scientific publications. end
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