1. Surge and Decline The Election of 2010

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time. Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.

3. A Historical Perspective

5. The Presidential Surge The President pulls candidates along with him – 1980, 2008, 1964 In a worst-case, he breaks even – 1984, 1996, 2004

6. The Midterm Decline The President’s Party Loses Seats They Take a bigger hit in the 6 th Year 1934, 1998, and 2002

7. The Role of Midterm elections A referendum on the president A referendum on the economy

8. WHO VOTES IN THE MIDTERM

9. A Different Electorate

10. More Partisans Less people there to support the president Less salient election

11. Withdrawn Coattails Congressional vote for candidate of winning presidential party Presidential ElectionMidterm Election 50% Non-coattail effect Coattail effect

12. THE OLD THEORY OF SURGE AND DECLINE Core vs. Peripheral Voters

13. Types of Voters Core Voters Peripheral voters

14. It is all about Peripheral Voters A Surge of Independent Voters Excited by the salience of the election

15. A Surge of Information Peripheral voters go to the polls The information surge favors the winning candidate

16. In the Midterm The peripherals stay at home resulting in lower turnout The Core voters turn out

17. Problems with the original theory The Midterm and presidential electorates are similar demographically The partisan differences aren’t that much different Peripherals are not running the show!

18. THE REVISED THEORY

19. The Disadvantaged Partisan More Likely to abstain than defect Cross Pressured

20. Winners and Losers In the General election – Surge among the advantaged party – Decline among the losing party A One Sided Surge

21. In the Midterm Partisans Stay at Home So do Peripherals

22. In the Midyear The president’s party stays at home The Out- party comes out to vote against you. No Cross-pressures

23. The Big Differences in the Theory Advantaged Partisans Turn out Heavy Disadvantaged Partisans stay at Home Independents turn out like usual, but swing to the wining party.

24. LEADING FACTORS OF A MIDTERM LOSS

25. How You Know it is going to bad Exposure and Coattails Presidential Approval Economic Growth

26. The Elections of 2010

27. The Obama Dichotomy President Obama had a record of achievement not seen since LBJ. Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

28. Health Care Reform Policy Success – The largest accomplishment of the administration Policy Problems – Spent Political Capital – Delayed Implementation

29. Opinion Remained Divided

30. The Stimulus Package Success – Potentially Staved off a second depression Problems – High Price Tag – Did not meet expectations

31. Voters were Split on its Effectiveness

32. War on Terror Successes in Iraq Problems in Afghanistan – More U.S. deaths in two years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration Support Remains Divided

33. Financial Reform Bill Success – The most sweeping bank reform since the Great Depression Problems – Critics on the Left say it didn’t Go Far Enough – Economy has not rebounded

34. Obama Shares the Blame

35. President Obama’s Policy Disconnect Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way Many Voters viewed these major policies as half- empty, not half-full