1. ACPST/GCSP Professional Training Course Emerging Threats to Human Security in Africa Group Work: What Will Be the Greatest Threats to Human Security in Africa in the Next 25 Years ? Group 3 Celine, Custodio, Claude, Elias, Hadgembes, Jaime and Raheemat 11 th May 2012

2. Risk Assessment and Scenario Deve. : Brainstorming and Frequency Table 1ReligionS.GBVRegional Blocs Poor GovClimate Change 2Poor Gov Pop GrowthClimate Change InequalityGlobalization 3Poor Gov EthnicityReligionGlobalizationClimate Change 4Env Security Food Security Community Security Political Security Organized Crimes 5Climate Change Poverty, Diseases Hunger Poor Gov Demographic Change Organized Crimes 6Poor Gov World Trade Regime Trans National Organized Crimes Climate Change Non Rep of Africa in UNSC P5 7Electoral Violence Drug Trafficking PiracyTerrorismClimate Change

3. Top Five Threats Poor Governance Climate Change ( debate on Env Management) Transnational Organized Crimes Unfair World Trade Regime Non Representation of Africa in the UNSC P5

4. Prioritizing Risks High I M P A C T Low High Impact Low Probability Trans National Organized Crimes Unfair World Trade Regime Non Representation in UNSC P5 High Impact High Probability Poor Governance Climate Change Low Impact Low Probability Low Impact High Probability Probability High

5. Further Risk Assessment IMPACTIMPACT Very High Unfair World Trade Regime Climate Change Poor Gov HighNon Representation of Africa in UNSC P5 Trans National Organized Crimes Medium Low Very Low UnlikelyProbablyPossibleLikelyVery Likely Probability

6. Governance vs Climate Change Good Governance will reduce the impacts of Climate Change Important Notes Governance: the process of decision-making and the process by which decisions are implemented (or not implemented). Government is one of the actors in governance. Other actors involved in governance vary depending on the level. All actors other than government and the military are grouped together as part of the "civil society." No man is good enough to govern another man without that other's consent. ~Abraham Lincoln. The way people in democracies think of the government as something different from themselves is a real handicap. And, of course, sometimes the government confirms their opinion. ~Lewis Mumford, in Anne Chisholm, Philosophers of the Earth: Conversations with Ecologists, 1972. Freedom would be meaningless without security in the home and in the streets Nelson Mandela, April 27 1995

7. Poor Governance Corruption Mis-management of Diversity Undemocratic Electoral Regimes /Transitions Religious Radicalism Lack of Transparency and Accountability Impunity Poor Civil-Military Relationship Visionless leadership Foreign Aid Dependency Economic Dependency Neo Colonialism Fiscal Indiscipline High Underemployment and Unemployment Mismanagement of Demographic Trends Inequalities (inc Gender) Mismanagement of the Environment and Biodiversity ETC

8. Dominant Risk: Poor Governance Analysis Local Impact Poor Service Delivery Weak Govt. Institutions Weak Opposition/Low Pol Participation Weak Civil Society Under Development Instability (Pol. Soc and Econ) Conflict Impunity/Injustice Unemployment and Underemployment Poverty Inequalities (inc Gender) etc Wider Consequences Lack of Respect Alienation and Marginalization Under Development Instability Lack of Credibility

9. Response Preventive MeasuresNational or Multi-lateral Sensitization/ Political Awareness of the Public National Institutional ReformsNational Gov and National Budget Monitoring National True Separation of PowerNational Strengthening of OppositionNational and Multi-lateral Broadening of Political Space (Good vs Bad People) National Constitutional ReformsNational and Multi-lateral Strengthening and coordination of AU, RECs and other Intergovernmental Orgs National and Multi-lateral Peer Review and MonitoringMulti-lateral

10. The African Challenge The Challenge Despite increasing democracy and stability in sub-Saharan Africa, corruption and conflict remain serious barriers to ending extreme poverty on the continent. In addition to the human and psychological toll corruption and conflict take on African populations, they also cost money -- the continent loses around $148 billion each year as a result of corruption alone (approximately one quarter of the region's GDP). Opportunity The responsibility and the greatest ability to improve governance and security lie with Africa's own leaders, but donor countries also have a role to play in promoting and supporting accountability, transparency and stability.

11. AMESEGNALEHU