1. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Adapted from PMBOK 4 th Edition InitiationPlanning ExecutionClose Monitor Control The process of numerically analysing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives Typically only applied to risks with high priority due to potential to substantially impact the project’s objectives Enables a more rigorous approach to risk decision making in the presence of uncertainly Often omitted depending on the organisation’s risk appetite and maturity of the project and risk management processes Occurs during Planning

2. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - Draft Risk Register Risk Management Plan Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Organisational Process Assets - –Risk management standards –Risk management policies and procedures –Risk categories and definitions –Standard templates –Lessons learned from previous projects –Risk databases and checklists Adapted from PMBOK 4 th Edition InitiationPlanning ExecutionClose Monitor Control

3. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools and techniques for Quantitative Risk Analysis include - Interviews Sensitivity Analysis Probability Distributions Modelling & Simulation Expert Judgement Expected Monetary Value Analysis Decision Tree Diagrams

4. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Interviews Draw on experience of experts and historical data to quantify the probability and impacts of risks on project objectives. Often Three-point data is gathered on pessimistic, likely and optimistic outcomes. Probability Distributions – Advanced technique Discrete distributions represent uncertain events such as risks. Requires high degree of statistical skill and statistical software. Sensitivity Analysis – Advanced technique Helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on project objectives. Prioritisation undertaken in Qualitative Analysis is often sufficient.

5. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Modelling and Simulation – Advanced techniques Uses a model to simulate the outcomes of the project, including the impact of uncertain events such as risks. Requires extensive data on past and similar projects, a high degree of statistical expertise and statistical software. Expected Monetary Value Analysis – Advanced technique Extremely advanced technique. Rarely used except for Defence and Scientific projects such as space exploration. Specifically examines the impacts on cost of uncertain events. Decision Tree Diagrams Can be use in conjunction with Modelling and Simulation and Expected Monetary Value Analysis, or can be prepared in a more informal manner. Enables analysis of different choices and paths.

6. BSBPMG508A Manage Project Risk 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs of this process include – Risk Register Updates –Probabilistic analysis of the project –Probability of achieving cost and time objectives –Prioritised list of quantified risks –Trends in risk analysis results Adapted from PMBOK 4 th Edition InitiationPlanning ExecutionClose Monitor Control