1. Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections on the near future. Robert David Steele Vivas MALAS in St. Louis 5 November 2005 A copy of these slides are at www.oss.net.www.oss.net

2. World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Private Sector Citizens Mother Earth Water-Air-Green

3. You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But Reality is Interested in You Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous wealth. Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option. Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent

4. Plan for the Briefing Two hours done in twenty minutes Slides posted so you can reflect more later 5 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker) 5 minutes on sources in context 5 minutes on emerging technologies 5 minutes of ethics and morality

5. State of the Art Will blow through these Its not about separate sources anymore Its not about human reading anymore Its about integrating everything: –Collecting relevant offline information –Machine-aided collation & exploitation –Connecting experts and their students –Presenting the information is a compelling way

6. OVERVIEW Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

7. FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360 Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

8. FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention

9. FOCUS ON A PERSON Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details

10. GET NEW INSIGHTS This is the only global information that integrates sources with tools

11. READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT Anything can be sent to the scrapbook where other tools can be applied

12. Silobreaker is the Next Google This costs $400 a year at full price. Offered at $200 until the end of the year. Test it free for seven days by following the link at www.oss.net.www.oss.net This has been my secret weapon for years, now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challengescreating a World Brain.

13. Sources All information, all languages, all the time Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy 185 languages, 33 of them core 12 relevant dialects of Arabic Must follow television, radio, audio, street 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC Cannot be made sense of by single individual

14. DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

15. 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

16. Seven Views of Reality Not sharing, not listening, costs us. Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans

17. OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM # = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global You Are Here... 1 2 3 Far Future Near Future Present Historical Memory

18. New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

19. Technologies Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data smartthe context is in the content IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprisewhen we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value Gaming, not reports, will rule

20. Five Technical Trends Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of businessCIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level Synthetic information breaks the copyright chainscan still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.

21. Ethics & Morality Secrecy is pathologicalsecrets can be ignored and manipulatedwitness Iraq Secrecy displaces dialogcult of secrecy Secrecy enables corruption & treasonnot just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church) Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor

22. TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW A Revolution is Underway Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible

23. Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers Half the brainthe half that can understand other viewsdies by the age of 35 Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35thats when the brain matures Faith mattersnot ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.

24. Reality Wont Go Away End of cheap oil cascades across everything End of free water is actually a bigger threat Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease could rebalance populations Rise of crime and corruption reflects the failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues Collection popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.

25. Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By Changing When & How We Intervene Public warning can change public policy –More Prevention –More Peacekeeping –More Education –More Long-Term Aid –Less Corruption –Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible

26. Spread the Word Robert David Steele Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Coach, Global Intelligence Partnership (20 companies & rising) Bear@oss.net 703.242.1700 Will speak for sushi. Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to organize everywhere in the world