1. Open Source Information: Heads Up for the COCOMs
Robert David Steele Vivas
Founder, USMC Intelligence Command
Founder, OSS Network

2. Plan for the Brief Big Picture—Strategic Transformation
IC Reform—Where OSINT Fits
OSINT 101—Beyond Internet Lite
COCOM OSINT JROC—Across the J’s
COCOM OSINT Oversight
COCOM OSINT Budget
Bottom Line: Don’t Ask, Don’t Get

3. Big Picture Strategic Transformation
Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004)
Defense Science Board Report: Transition to and from Hostilities (December 2004)
Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers
Multi-National Information Sharing
UN Joint Military Analysis Centres

4. Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004)
Must understand global public opinion
Need national center for coordinating USG
Effort should be centered at State
Must redefine public diplomacy and affairs
Must elevate ranks of those so engaged
USD Policy should be DoD focal point
JCS & COCOMs must align all plans & ops

5. Defense Science Board Report: Transitions (December 2004)
Contingency planning is a full-time mission
Joint inter-agency task forces are needed
COCOMs must focus on S&R mission
Must integrate NGOs, other civil players
Cultural knowledge is equal of combat skill
COCOMs must have I&I campaign plans
“Open sources can provide much of the….”
S&R: Stabilization & Reconstruction I&I: Information & Intelligence

6. Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers Sharing Starts with Open Sources
USSOCOM has built the first one—can copy.
SOCOM concludes there is a “mission essential need to exploit open source information for operational use. Bottom line: OSINT can increase our capability by 5X to 10X.”
SOCOM has asked for—and gotten—$10M a year, beginning this year, for generic OSINT to support all missions areas, not just intelligence.

7. Multi-National Networks US Cannot Do It Alone
Africa has an Early Warning & Open Source Information Sharing Network
Caribbean is developing a law enforcement information sharing network
NATO and Partnership for Peace have created three OSINT reference documents
UN is creating regional JMAC, 1st in Africa
JMAC: Joint Military Analysis Centres

8. IC Reform Where OSINT Fits
Collection Gaps, Context, & Cover
Processing Baseline and Linkages
Analytic Foundation, Warning, Framework
Management Benefits
Lowers over-all cost of meeting all needs
Reduces time needed to satisfy many needs
Increases requirements that can be satisfied
Dramatically increases what can be known

9. Reinforces Global Collection Open Sources – 5X to 10X Improved Coverage
Digital
Analog
Oral/Unpublished
English
Language
Foreign
Languages*
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA
FBIS
UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process most hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
We have failed to properly prepare for war in the 21st Century because our IT premises have failed us.
We spend $30+ billion a year on stealing a fraction of the information that is relevant to our decision-making.
We are not accessing the vast range of openly available foreign language information that we must understand if we are to deal effectively with Islamic, Chinese, and other concerns.
If we apply the “T” to the red area, we increase IC productivity by a factor of at least 10, perhaps 100.

10. Can Baseline All-Source Processing
50%
Less Costly
More Satisfying
SIGINT
OSINT 0%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
The information we do collect never gets processed in an integrated way. Worse yet, we simply cannot make sense out of what we already have in hand--our analytic toolkits--including collaborative work across organizational boundaries--are a disgrace, mostly because management has never been willing to make the trade-offs between collection technology and analysis technology.
We must have a single integrated all-source processing agency to make sense of it all and we must have toolkits.
If we apply the “T” to these two challenges, we increase IC productivity by a factor of at least 10, perhaps In combination, “TC” and “TP” = an IC 100X better.

11. Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
Analytic Change #1:
Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW

12. Actionable Intelligence Available Information
Analytic Change #2:
The Really Big Gap
The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Open source information is more complex than secrets…

13. Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
Analytic Change #3:
Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
STRATEGIC Integrated Application
OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place
TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources
TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities
Military Sustainability
Civil Allies
Geographic Location
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance
Military Availability
Civil Infrastructure
Geographic Terrain
Geographic Resources
Military Lethality
Military Reliability
Civil Psychology
Civil Stability
Geographic Atmosphere

14. OSINT 101 Beyond Internet Lite
OSINT is 24/7, off-line, complex, costs $$
OSINT includes history back 200 years
OSINT demands harnessing seven tribes
OSINT demands structured multinational collection, processing, and analytic sharing
OSINT integrates sources, softwares, services
OSINT enhances analysis & management
OSINT is key lever for addressing asymmetric threats

15. OSINT Matters Clausewitz Says So…
"By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country--the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations."
Clausewitz, On War, 1832
Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know, or for answering questions in the most expensive, risky, time-consuming manner possible.

16. Definitions Open Source Data Open Source Information
Open Source Intelligence
Validated Open Source Intelligence
Only the in-house analyst can do this.
With that as preamble, I will now spend a few minutes discussing Open Source Intelligence.
First, we must distinguish between data—the raw sources in many languages and mediums—information that collates data for generic audiences—and intelligence, which is tailored to the needs of a specific decision-maker. Intelligence is about supporting decisions, not about secret sources.
Second, I would emphasize that OSINT should not be controlled by the spies. Ideally we should have an independent agency that is equally responsive to all elements of government.
OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should control—it must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticians—as well as all-source intelligence analysts.

17. WHAT OSINT IS NOT...
“…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”.
“…the Internet.”
“…a substitute for spies and satellites.”
I have been working this issue for over 14 years now, and I have learned that there are some common misconceptions about OSINT among the most senior diplomats and other policymakers and operators.
Here you see what OSINT is not.
At its best, OSINT is the complete marriage of the proven process of intelligence, from requirements definition and collection management to timely analytics, with all—and I do mean all—legally and ethically available sources.

18. New Craft of Intelligence 90% of what we need to know is not SEOK
Lessons of History II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--
Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Our national security program must be an informed program. I am quite serious when I suggest that Washington is operating on 2% of the relevant multi-lingual information.
We must create a Smart Nation that respects the lessons of history in all languages; creates cost sharing networks with other nations; harnesses the distributed intelligence in our private sector; and focuses a revitalized spy service narrowly, deeply, and effectively.
I believe we can double or triple what can be known, relatively quickly, at a cost of less than $125 million in year one.
SEOK: Secret, in English, Online, or Known to Anyone in the IC.

19. Open Sources in 29+ Languages
Commercial Online
Books & Journals
Conferences & Dissertations
Maps & Commercial Imagery
Internet
Telephone Surveys
Gray Literature
Complex Human & IT Services
OSINT Universe
It is important to emphasize the paucity of those endeavors that are limited to English or the main European languages. If one cannot work in 29+ languages on a 24/7 basis—that is, in near-real-time, one is not serious.
Print and broadcast media are actually the smallest part of the open source universe. Untapped perceptions, oral histories, informal exchanges, limited edition local publications, pre-prints, and geospatial as well as imagery information of all kinds—including photos from cells phones with geospatial positioning system information—this is the larger universe.

20. Internet Competency No longer a toy--now a serious source
“All-source” means all sources--the Internet is now a major source
Search engines vary.
Find images and maps.
Find experts and groups.
Limit to 1-hour efforts.
Need an Internet specialist on call.

21. Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet
Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, words.
Factiva.com
DIALOG
European Services
Value-added is enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval
Need a specialist.
CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, words.

22. Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask
Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, “niche” references.
Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability.
Unique and useful.

23. Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts
Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations.
Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.

24. Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings
DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index
Use OSS methodology
$500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic
Then you call them...

25. Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help
Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools
Geospatial tools
Structured analysis and detection tools
Multi-media publication and presentation tools

26. Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference
Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance
Russian military maps of Third World vital
Post-processing support from private sector
Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context

27. Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value
CIA University breaking new ground
Moving away from “cutting and pasting”
Moving away from hard-copy files
Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data

28. Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation
Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command
This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure
Also saves money
Senior All-Source Collection Manager
Internet Specialist
Commercial Online Expert
Primary Research
External Contracts
All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager

29. Four Levels of War, All the J’s
Summary:
Four Levels of War, All the J’s
Strategic Planning
Operational Coordination
Tactical Employment
Acquisition
Design
History
Context
Current Awareness
Key Personalities/Motivators
Imagery & Image Maps
Translation Support
Strategic Generalizations
Critical Technologies
J-2 J-3 J-4 J-5 J-6 J-7 J-N
This is the slide that got General Peter Schoomaker, then Commander in Chief of the Special Operations Command, and today the Chief of Staff of the Army, to believe that OSINT could make a difference.
To his credit, today the U.S. Special Operations Command is the only element of the U.S. Government that is completely proficient in what I call operationally-oriented OSINT—from monitoring terrorist and insurgent web sites in 29 languages, to tribal studies to acquisition studies to Russian military maps integrated with US shuttle mission terrain elevation data, they get it.
J-2 J-3 J-4 J-5 J-6 J-7 J-N

30. Six Phone Calls, Overnight Response. Need to know who knows….
Burundi Exercise 1995 This is what got Lee Hamilton to recommend OSA on page 413 of 9-11 Commission Report.
Top 10 Academics (Institute of Scientific Information)
Top 10 Journalists (LEXIS-NEXIS)
20 Pol-Mil Summaries (Oxford Analytica UK)
Tribal Orders of Battle (Jane’s Information Group)
Russian Military Maps (East View Cartographic)
Commercial Imagery (SPOT Image—today many vendors)
Six Phone Calls, Overnight Response. Need to know who knows….
Lest you might believe that the U.S. Government does OSINT, but does not advertise, I will simply highlight the fact that in August 1995, in an overnight exercise, I defeated the entire U.S. Intelligence Community—all agencies—in what is now known as the Burundi exercise.
I did this with six telephone calls on my way to the airport. It was not a fair contest—if you believe that only secrets matter, then you will tend to not know where to go for the non-secrets. There has been no real change since then due to persistent opposing mind-sets.

31. NATO OSINT
NATO also gets it. Under the leadership of another great Army general, William Kernan, NATO, when it began expanding, adopted OSINT as its standard for establishing common understandings with Partnership for Peace nations and other coalition partners of the moment, including non-governmental organizations.
As of this minute, these three publications, all available free on the Internet, represent the standard of excellence for OSINT.

32. Seven Intelligence Tribes: The Way Ahead
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &
Media
Religions
& Clans
Now let me dig a little deeper and explore some of the nuances of the open source world.
We achieve new efficiencies and effectiveness in national intelligence—and in our international affairs—by recognizing that there are seven tribes relevant to our planning and to our operations.
We must nurture these seven tribes, in part by recognizing them, in part by training them, and in part by developing generic standards for migrating the proven process of intelligence from the spy world to the open world. That’s where you come in—only you can do this.

33. State of the Tribes Today
National %
Military %
Business %
Academic %
Law Enforcement 20%
NGO-Media %
Religious %
We have much to do.
There is plenty of room for improvement on all fronts. This is my considered judgment on where we are today. My first book evaluates the U.S. Intelligence Community in great detail, and ends with a 62-page index.
Don’t ever be intimidated by a spy claiming to know things you do not know. The problem with spies is they only know secrets—they only believe in what can be stolen, not what can be known.
It is you, as diplomats, who can bring these seven tribes together, and nurture a new form of national intelligence.

34. OSINT Benefits Statement Every Single COCOM Needs to Focus Now…
Why Focus on OSINT?
Non-state, lower tier
Complex emergencies
Limited secret coverage
Information explosion
Immediate Benefits
Insurance policy
Improves coverage
Improves coalitions
Program Elements
Digital History Project
NGO Data Network
Generic Training Teams
Generic Analytic Tools
Generic Standards
University of the Republic
Virtual Task Forces
Regional OSINT Centers
Never in our history have we been more in need of a professional OSINT endeavor, and I believe that you here in State should provide the leadership.
OSINT can cover everything the spies cannot focus on. It provides an insurance policy. It can be shared with anyone. Best of all, it puts State back in charge of foreign affairs.
I have posted a detailed budget at OSS.Net, developed for the Senate Armed Services Committee, showing precisely how I would spend $125M a year—on the way to $1.5B a year—to revitalize America’s intelligence.

35. Regional Intelligence Center
I created our Nation’s newest all-source intelligence center from 1988 to I have served in three of the four Directorates at CIA, and I understand the real world and what can be known about the real world.
I’m here to tell you that the US Government, on its own, with all the money in the world to spend, will never in a million years get it right.
We must—we must—lead the way in creating regional intelligence centers that share the burden and leverage local access and local knowledge. From OSINT we can graduate to multinational clandestine and shared technical operations—but first we have to do OSINT.
Deputy for Counterintelligence
Japan
Deputy for Covert Action
Thailand

36. COCOM OPG VPN Getting a grip on every topic, 24/7
Weekly report
Distance learning
Virtual library
Expert Forum
Shared directory
Shared calendar
Shared budget
Shared “plot” (map)

37. World War III Players Nation-States Private Sector Bacteria Citizens
Gangs
Nation states are only ten percent of the threat. More threatening are private sector organizations that destroy people’s life savings or export their jobs, or that implant immoral capitalism abroad, enriching elites and disenfranchising all others; ethnic criminal gangs such as we see coming out of Russia, China, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and Colombia; and bacteria.
Finally, we have Mother Earth, on the verge of collapse. The Earth is tired of our talk, wants peace, an end to promises, and perhaps an end to us. [Philip Levine, 1979]
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green

38. Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
This is the reality that we are not ready to deal with as we are now structured and funded.
We have a world that is largely unstable and at war with itself.
In 2002 there were 23 conflicts killing over 1000 people a year, 79 killing under 1000 a year, and 175 violent political conflicts internal to a specific country.
Neither the CIA nor the media articulate this reality to our public. You must take up this challenge.
Pol Terror Level 3
Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4
Large numbers, torture
Pol Terror Level 5
Entire public, no limits
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

39. Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Food Security
33 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
Instability spawns migrations, criminal activity, and disease as well as terrorism.
There are 20 or so complex emergencies involving over 32 countries that are considered to be “failed states.” We have millions of refugees, millions of starving people, millions of people subject to plagues and epidemics.
You know these challenges well—but until we educate America, and our citizens in turn demand action from Congress and the Executive, these threats to our Nation will continue to multiply and interact.
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

40. Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
RANDOM
CYBER -
DATABASE
IDEO -
MASS
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(BIG WAR)
LOW TECH
(GANGS)
SEERS
(HOME)
(POOR)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISM
ECONOMICWAR
As I discuss in my second book, copies of which are in your library, the real world presents America with four distinct threats, each completely different, each requiring completely different national security capabilities.
Three of these four threat classes require very big investments in peaceful preventive measures and in human expertise.
That’s where you come in. It is time for State to get back in the business of grand strategy, inter-agency planning, and inter-agency operational campaign management.

41. COCOM OSINT JROC IMHO, We Have Not Really Done JROC Right…
J-2: Warning, Historical, Ethnic, Basic
J-3: OOTW, Coalition, S&T, NGOs, PMIs
J-4: Maps, Geospatial, Fuel, Water, Etc.
J-5: Mid & long-term plans support
J-6: Telecommunications, IO, PSYOP?
J-7: Joint & Coalition Inter-operability
J-N: RW-RT Simulation Feeds, Etc.
JROC: Joint Required Operational Capability

42. COCOM OSINT Oversight Direct Report to DCC, All J’s Oversee
Congressman Simmons has a view on this.
J-3 manages external liaison via Civil Affairs
J-2 manages internal validation & integration
BUT may not interdict direct support to other J’s
BUT may not control nor reduce OSINT budget
COCOM OSINT is a direct report to DCC
All J’s serve on oversight board.

43. COCOM OSINT Context No One Else Is Going To Meet Your Needs
Unrealistic to expect national to collect, process, or analyze open sources for military
90% of what we need comes from people that do not want to meet or share with intelligence
Cannot predict the future—can only be alert to all weak signals in all languages all the time
Next four slides address generic capability.

44. COCOM OSINT People 25 People—Six at HQS, 6 Three-Person Teams
Double-hat as inter-agency collaboration
Six people at Headquarters
Branch Chief/Collection Manager, Deputy Branch Chief & All-Source Analyst, Master Librarian, Action Officer, Contracts Officer, Geospatial Specialist, Online Search Specialist
Six three-person “information A teams”
Section Chief, Translator/Analyst, Webmaster

45. COCOM OSINT Outposts There Is No Substitute for “Being There”
CENTCOM
EUCOM
PACOM
SOUTHCOM
Alamaty
Accra/Dakar
Hanoi
Bogotá
Beijing
Cairo
Jakarta
Caracas
Istanbul
Madrid
Kuala Lumpur
Montevideo
Moscow
Paris
Kyoto
Trinidad
New Delhi
Pretoria
Manila
Panama
Stockholm
Rome
Singapore
Rio de Janeiro
NOTE: DoD Teams form integrated mesh, e.g. Beijing team serves all COCOMs, for example, telecomms for PACOM, trade for SOUTHCOM.

46. COCOM OSINT Budget $10M Buys “Just Enough, Just in Time”
$3.75M for 25 trained, dedicated OSOs
$1.00M for information technology & travel
$1.50M for information sharing grants
$1.00M for Digital Marshall Plan across AOR
$2.00M for Vendor OSINT acquisition
$0.50M for Vendor digitization/visualization
$0.25M for Training across the AOR

47. COCOM OSINT Sharing Taking Intelink to a New Level
Open Source Information System-External
OSIS-X
Extends Intelink protocols, look & feel, to all
Open to NGOs, PMIs, coalition partners, etc.
Harvested every five minutes back to NIPR+
Leverages SOCOM “hub” for processing
Leverages Tampa as location of two COCOMs, offer up space for DoD-wide help desk

48. Don’t Ask, Don’t Get USDI is playing cards close to its chest.
Defense Open Source Agency is possible.
$125M IOC, $2B FOC, is a do-able do.
Congressman Simmons owns OSINT.
Congressman Davis is now interested.
This is not going away.
Don’t ask, don’t get.