1. Shell Exploration & Production Copyright: Shell Exploration & Production Ltd. 9/16/2015 File Title Prestige Seminar Energy for the Future Issues and Options for UK Energy - University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Wednesday 9 November 2005 Kieron McFadyen Vice-President Technical - Europe

2. The Three-Part Challenge World Energy Demand Climate Change Security of Supply

3. World Energy Demand The Three–Part Challenge IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 0 4 8 12 16 197120022030 billion tonnes oil equivalent Asian developing economies

4. Climate Change The Three–Part Challenge global carbon emissions GtC / year Projected range of temperature increase 15 20 5 10 0 20202060 2100 1980 1000 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm IEA IEA 2004 reference case adjusted to include non-sustainable biomass ºC 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 2100 2300

5. Security of Supply The Three–Part Challenge The G8 Summit 2005 – Gleneagles, Scotland

6. Gas is Travelling Norway Oman Qatar Algeria Egypt Nigeria Equatorial Guinea Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela

7. Gas – the fuel of the 21st century oil billion boe/d 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 198019902000201020202030 gas Source: Shell long-term Scenarios

8. Energy demand to double by 2050 - half demand still Oil & Gas IEA 2004 (reference case) billion tonnes oil equivalent other renewables hydro nuclear biomass & waste coal gas oil

9. UK net importer of Gas by 2005/06 Source: BP

10. Shell and the UK’s Security of Supply Short and Long-term

11. Five Transition Areas 1. More efficient use of energy – demand management 2. Make the most of existing sources of energy 3. Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4. Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5. Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

12. Five Transition Areas 1. More efficient use of energy – demand management 2. Make the most of existing sources of energy 3. Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4. Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5.Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

13. Five Transition Areas 1.More efficient use of energy – demand management 2.Make the most of existing sources of energy 3.Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4.Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5. Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

14. 2. Make the most The importance of Technology 4-Dimensional Seismic Expandable Tubing for Wells

15. Five Transition Areas 1. More efficient use of energy – demand management 2. Make the most of existing sources of energy 3. Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4. Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5.Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

16. 3. Reduce and manage emissions Carbon-free electricity from the North Sea Miller Field

17. Five Transition Areas 1. More efficient use of energy – demand management 2. Make the most of existing sources of energy 3. Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4. Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5.Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

18. 4. New sources into production Unconventionals potential coal bed methane extra-heavy oil & bitumen oil shaletight gas gas shale contaminated gas 100 bn boe

19. 4. New sources into production solar, wind, wave, biofuels, hydrogen Energy - a business for today & tomorrow

20. Five Transition Areas 1. More efficient use of energy – demand management 2. Make the most of existing sources of energy 3. Reduce and manage emissions of carbon dioxide from energy processes 4. Bring new sources of energy into production – in more difficult conditions and from unconventional resources 5. Develop more efficient ways of producing energy and cleaner fuels

21. Engineering Undergraduates Germany 16% China 44% United Kingdom 5% France16%