1. Topic 13 Hurricanes GEOL 2503 Introduction to Oceanography

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3. Garden City, South Carolina after Hurricane Hugo (1989) 3

4. North coast of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Hugo (1989) 4

5. US Hurricanes Galveston 1900 deadliest –6000 dead Strongest hurricanes -1935 Florida Keys -1969 Camille (Gulf coast, MS) 5

6. Deadliest (Deaths) 1900 Galveston (8000) 1928 SE Florida (2500) 2005 Katrina (1500) 1893 LA (1100-1400) 1893 SC/GA Sea Islands (1000-2000) 6

7. Years of maximum and minimum tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin 1851-2006. 7

8. Years of maximum United States hurricane and major hurricane strikes 1851-2006 8

9. Hurricanes Rotating air Winds exceed 64 knots (74 mi/hr) Rotate counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere (clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere). Visit the National Hurricane Center web page at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 9

10. What is a cyclone? In meteorology, a cyclone refers to an area of closed, circular fluid motion rotating in the same direction as the Earth Usually characterized by inward spiraling winds Rotate counter clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere of the Earth. 10

11. Cyclones Tropical cyclones—generated in the tropics Extratropical cyclones—generated outside of the tropics 11

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13. Hurricane Formation Formed from thunderstorms Ocean water itself must be warmer than 26.5 degrees Celsius (81°F) Hurricanes weaken rapidly when they travel over land or colder ocean waters 13

14. ITCZ—birthplace of hurricanes 14

15. Summer Sea Surface Temperatures 15

16. Why no hurricanes here? 16

17. Tropical cyclones Tropical depression –Winds less than 38 mph Tropical storm –Winds 39-73 mph Hurricane –Winds 74 + mph 17

18. The warm water is one of the most important keys as it is water that powers the tropical cyclone. As water vapor rises, it cools. This cooling causes the water vapor to condense into a liquid we see as clouds. Condensation releases heat, which warms the atmosphere, making the air lighter still which then continues to rise into the atmosphere. As it does, more air moves in near the surface to take its place which is the strong wind we feel from these storms. 18

19. The main parts of a tropical cyclone are the rainbands, the eye, and the eyewall. Air spirals in toward the center in a counter-clockwise pattern in the northern hemisphere (clockwise in the southern hemisphere), and out the top in the opposite direction. In the very center of the storm, air sinks, forming an "eye" that is mostly cloud-free. 19

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21. Given that sea surface temperatures need to be at least 80°F (27°C) for tropical cyclones form, it is natural that they form near the equator. However, with only the rarest of occasions, these storms do not form within 5° latitude of the equator. This is due to the lack of sufficient Coriolis Force. Typhoon Cyclone Hurricane Cyclone 21

22. Progression of Tropical Systems Classic “Cape Verde” hurricane track 22

23. Tropical Disturbance A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection originating in the tropics or subtropics, maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. 23

24. Tropical Depression A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed is 33 kt (38 mph, 17 m/s). Depressions have a closed circulation. 24

25. Tropical Storm A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed ranges from 34 kt (39 mph,17.5 m/s) to 63 kt (73 mph, 32.5 m/s). The convection in tropical storms is usually more concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into distinct bands. Tropical storms receive a name 25

26. Hurricanes A tropical cyclone with winds equal to or exceeding 64 kt (74 mph, 33 m/s) Hurricanes are further designated by categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes in categories 3, 4, 5 are known as Major Hurricanes or Intense Hurricanes. Known as typhoons or cyclones in some ocean basins 26

27. The Saffir-Simpson Scale Category12345 Pressure (mb)>979979-965964-945944-920<920 Wind (mph)74-9596-110111-130131-154>154 Storm surge (ft)4-56-89-1213-18>18 DamageMinimalModerateExtensiveExtremeCatastrophic 27

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29. Tracks of systems that became major hurricanes after forming in Tropical Atlantic or Caribbean Sea Active 24-Year Period 1955-1970, 1995-2002 67 Major Hurricanes Inactive 24-Year Period 1971-1994 27 Major Hurricanes 29

30. Storm Surge Local rise in sea level caused by storm processes –Wind –Waves –Low air pressure Not “STORM TIDE” 30

31. Normal high tide here is 2 feet above sea level. The storm surge is an additional 15 feet. Giving a total water level of 17 feet. High water level (+17 feet) 31

32. storm surge high water level tide level Observed (high water level) Observed (high water level) - Predicted (tides) - Predicted (tides) = Storm Surge = Storm Surge Storm-surge levels along South Carolina coast (from FEMA). 32

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34. What would the wind history be at cities A, B, and C as the hurricane makes landfall? 34

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36. Photo courtesy of the National Climate Data Center Floyd vs Andrew Andrew was much stronger, but Floyd was much larger 36

37. Lake Pontchartrain New Orleans 37

38. Katrina pushed water into Lake Pontchartrain Water broke through flood walls into New Orleans 38

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44. Which one is not an idiot? 44

45. B(4) warm water vapor C(1) cool dry air A(2) eye of the hurricane D(3) spiral rain bands 45

46. GPS Dropsondes Deployed from aircraft to measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and winds between flight level and the surface As the sonde falls at 10 m/s (2000 ft/min) it is also pushed by the wind The wind can be determined from the Doppler shifts of the GPS signals. Readings are relayed to the airplane at half second intervals. Vertical resolution for all measurements is 5 m 46

47. Dropsondes 47

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50. 3 major hurricanes struck GA coast in the 1890’s 50

51. Landfall near Brunswick as a Cat. 4 with max winds of 135 mph 180 dead; $56.5 million in damage (2004 dollars) Max storm surge was 13-18 ft. in Darien http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/research/hurricanes/history/1898/ Oct 1898 – Georgia Hurricane

52. 3 major landfalls in the 1890’s (but none since 1900) Potential for big storm surge owing to shallow shelf Barrier islands at extra risk associated with sea level rise Risks to Coastal Georgia 52

53. Impacts of floods Impacts of floods Hurricane Frances (2004) caused $41M damage to Atlanta from flooding Immediate impacts: property damage, injuries, death Health issues: infectious diseases, exposure to toxins Key water quality issues: Floodwater tainted with raw sewage, pesticides, agricultural waste, petroleum products, dead animals Flooding of animal waste retention pools from hog, cattle, dairy, poultry farms 53

54. Case Study: Hurricane Ivan (2004) Category 3 hurricane that made landfall just west of Gulf Shores, AL Produced 25 tornadoes in GA resulting in 2 deaths and 10 injuries. Rainfall in excess of 5 to 10 in. and high winds destroyed 50% pecan and 15% cotton crop in GA. Property damage in GA $68.8 M. From National Climatic Data Center Satellite Archives 54

55. While no major hurricane strikes since 1900, increases in # of Atlantic storms increases the probability of a GA landfall Landfall on GA coast has potential for big storm surge owing to shallow shelf Barrier islands at extra risk associated with sea level rise Heavy rainfall associated with storms that make landfall in the Gulf; rainfall in hurricanes is expected to increase Tornadoes likely to be spawned in GA by increasingly intense storms that make landfall in the Gulf Hurricane Risks to Georgia 55

56. Coastal ecosystems will eventually adapt, but hurricanes will cause short term damage to maritime forests, wetlands marshes, and wildlife disruptions Human systems will face shoreline erosion, loss of beaches and dunes, damage to structures, economic losses. Adaptation strategies include: Land use Coastal engineering Building codes Wetlands preservation Forest preservation Adaptation Strategies 56

57. Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting Track forecast cone, 3-day and 5-day Watches and warnings Wind speed probabilities Surface wind field (measured) Storm surge probabilities 57

58. Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone and Watches/Warnings 58

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