1. Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation 1 Kirsti Ashworth, Nick Hewitt, Oliver Wild 2 Gerd Folberth 1 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University 2 Met Office Hadley Centre

2. VOCs Cultivation OZONEAEROSOLS CLIMATEAIR QUALITY

3. Methodology

4. Biofuel scenarios Scenario DescriptionArea Control CMIP5 SSTs - IGBP vegetation dataset

5. Biofuel scenarios Scenario Description Area (Mha) Control AMIP SSTs - IGBP vegetation dataset SRCs Extra-tropics 92 Crops/grasses replaced

7. Biofuel scenarios Scenario Description Area (Mha) Control AMIP SSTs - IGBP vegetation dataset SRCs Extra-tropics 92 Crops/grasses replaced Oil Palm Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69 Broadleaf trees replaced

9. Biofuel scenarios Scenario Description Area (Mha) Control AMIP SSTs - IGBP vegetation dataset SRCs Extra-tropics 92 Crops/grasses replaced Oil Palm Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69 Broadleaf trees replaced

10. Biofuel scenarios Scenario Description Area (Mha) Control AMIP SSTs - IGBP vegetation dataset SRCs Extra-tropics 92 Crops/grasses replaced Oil Palm Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69 Broadleaf trees replaced + NOx Processing and fertiliser 69

11. Results

12. Global analysis SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

13. Global analysis SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 %

14. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 % Δ isoprene+ 1% Global analysis

15. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 % Δ isoprene+ 1% Climate impacts Global analysis

16. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 % Δ isoprene+ 1% Climate impacts-- Global analysis

17. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 % Δ isoprene+ 1% Air quality Global analysis

18. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx Fossil fuel replaced 1 % Δ isoprene+ 1% Air quality-- Global analysis

19. Regional analysis SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

20. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Regional analysis

21. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Planted area (Mha)6927 Regional analysis

22. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Planted area (Mha)6927 Fuel yield (Mt/y)110 Regional analysis

23. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Planted area (Mha)6927 Fuel yield (Mt/y)110 Total area (Mha)14001350 Regional analysis

24. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Planted area (Mha)6927 Fuel yield (Mt/y)110 Total area (Mha)14001350 Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Regional analysis

25. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Planted area (Mha)6927 Fuel yield (Mt/y)110 Total area (Mha)14001350 Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.4+0.25 Regional analysis

26. July SEAsia NOx

27. July EU SRC

28. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Area Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.4+0.25 Regional analysis

29. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Area Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.4+0.3 Veg Regional analysis

30. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Area Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.4+0.3 Veg Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.3+0.9 Regional analysis

31. SRCs Oil Palm + NOx RegionEuropeSE Asia Area Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.2 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.4+0.3 Veg Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.3+0.9 Peak Δ O 3 (ppbv) +0.7+1.2 Regional analysis

32. Conclusions

33. Any questions?

34. Workshop Biogenic VOC emissions models and their applications May 17 th -18 th, Lancaster More info and to register: www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/bvoc