1. In this presentation, we will: 1.Describe each step the Compass model and show comparable steps in the IRM. Compass = What,, Where, How IRM= Who, What, When, Where, How, Why 1.Take a household through these steps and show how the household is treated differently in the two models. 2.Show how the additional complexity of the IRM provides additional sensitivity (we can test and represent more.) Reality Is more complicated than 4 step models can show. –“Putting on the Glasses”

2. The New Regional Model - Focus Big Picture Effects of development pattern/design –UGB scenarios –TOD –Urban Centers –“New” Urbanism vs traditional 20 th century suburban patterns –Mixed versus single use

3. The New Regional Model - Focus Big Picture Explicit modeling of bike/ped. Time of day modeling Person/household characteristics: –Age –Gender –Household population composition Presence and age of children Number of workers

4. The New Regional Model - Focus Big Picture Number of vehicles Work at home Full induced demand for the first time –Trip/tour suppression/re-structuring –Trip-length changes –Mode changes –Time of day changes –Path changes

5. The New Regional Model - Focus Details for Tekkies Modeling trips in tours, not separately Each household and job is given a precise location (xy point) Each household/person in the region is represented individually – PUMS-level data

6. The New Regional Model - Focus Details for Tekkies More / real trip purposes: –Old model: home-based work, home-based non-work, non-home-based –New model: work, school, escort, shopping, eat meal, social-recreation, personal business

7. The New Regional Model - Focus Bottom Line The model operates at the level at which decision actually are made –Usually the person –Occasionally the household

8. The New Regional Model - Focus Bottom Line The model operates at the level at which decision actually are made –Usually the person –Occasionally the household

9. The New Regional Model - Focus Bottom Line disaggregate modeling means recognizing that things are different, and describing them as they are: –Person/household type –Tour/trip type –Location –Time of day

10. The New Regional Model - Focus Bottom Line better modeling now – better ability to improve in the future – better ability to run scenarios –Example – where will the elderly live? –Example – use of hybrid / electric vehicles.

11. Compass i. Network Processing ii. Area Type 1. Trip Generation i. Highway/Transit Skims 2. Trip Distribution 3. Mode Choice i. Parking Cost ii. Time-of-Day 4. Highway/Transit Assignment

12. 1. Population Synthesizer Network Skims Aggregate Mode/Destination Choice Logsum Generator Mode Choice Logsum Generator 2. Regular Workplace Location Choice 3. Regular School Location Choice 4. Auto Availability Intermediate Stop Logsum Generator 5. Daily Activity Pattern Choice IRM Exact Number of Tours Choice Work Tour Destination Type Choice Model Work-Based Subtour Generation Choice 6. Tour Primary Destination Choice 7. Tour Main Mode Choice 8. Tour Time of Day Choice Intermediate Stop Generation Choice Intermediate Stop Location Choice 9. Trip Mode Choice 10. Trip Departure Time Choice 11. Assignment

13. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

14. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations… –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

15. ? ? ? What do we know about the people in the households in the Compass model? Answer: nothing. Example Family: Adult - Age? Job status? Adult – Age? Job status? Child – Age? Student status? Relationship To adults?

16. Example Family: Mother, Age 33 Part Time Service Worker Father, Age 34 Full Time Education Worker Son, Age 4 Pre-School Student Family Income : $61,000 What do we know about the people in the households in the IRM ? Answer: Anything included in the Census.

17. What do we know about individual people in Compass?

18. Person Data in the IRM

19. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system?

20. Household Data in Compass

21. Household Data in the IRM

22. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

23. Ok, so what do we know about household locations in Compass ? Answer: They are located in traffic analysis zones, and…

24. And what do we know about households in the IRM?

25. We know a lot more about households in the IRM: why is that better? Households with more drivers and workers own more cars. Households with more cars make different choices than households with fewer cars: –They make more tours –And use drive mode for them more often Point-level location means we actually know: –Walk distance to/from transit –Walk trip distance –Bike trip distance –Short auto trip distance.

26. We know a lot more about people in the IRM: why is that better? Lots of reasons! –People tend to work in places where there are a lot of jobs in their field. –Kids tend to go to school where their older siblings go. –Workers tend to go to work, students tend to go to school, retired people tend not to do either (etc.) –People with kids tend to cart them around a lot, and drive doing it.

27. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times

28. What do we know about where jobs are in Compass? Answer: they are in traffic analysis zones, and…

29. What do we know about where jobs are in the IRM ?

30. Job Data in Compass

31. Job Data in the IRM

32. What do we know about schools in Compass?

33. And about Schools in the IRM?

34. We know a lot more in the IRM: why is that better? Tie the kind of job people have to the kind of company and its location. We know precisely how far the company is from the transit stop. Non-university students tend to go school in their home school district. We know precisely how far the school is from each home.

35. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

36. What do we know about what people do during their day in Compass? Number of work trips by households in the zone. Number of other kinds of trips made by households in the zone.

37. Compass Trip Rates Note also: only three types of trips- Home-Based Work, Home-Based Non-Work, and Non-Home Based

38. What do we know in the IRM? Mostly about things they do when they leave the house: –Exception: we know if they work at home. Out-of-home activities: work, school, shop, eat meal, socialize, escort others, personal business.

39. Doing what?Primary reason for going out Just making a stop along the way Workingx Going to school Shopping Escorting othersx Socializing Eating outx Personal business IRM Activities in the Day

40. HOME DAY CARE PARK AND RIDE WORK RESTAURANT Walk TOUR-BASED MODEL 1 home-based work tour 1 work- based meal tour 2 intermediate serve passenger stops TRIP-BASED MODEL 4 non-home based trips Two home-based other trips NHB trip poorly handled... Tours Generated in the IRM

41. Doing what?Primary reason for going out Just making a stop along the way Workingx Going to school Shopping X Escorting others Socializing Eating outx Personal business IRM Activities in the Day

42. HOME WORK STORE TOUR-BASED MODEL 1 home-based work tour 1 shopping stop TRIP-BASED MODEL 1 home-based work trip 1 non-home-based trip 1 home-based non work trip Tours Generated in the IRM

43. Doing what?Primary reason for going out Just making a stop along the way Working Going to schoolX Shopping Escorting others Socializing Eating out Personal business IRM Activities in the Day

44. passenger HOMEDAY CARE 13 TOTAL TRIPS BY HOUSEHOLD: 1 HOME-BASED WORK 5 HOME-BASED NON-WORK 7 NON-HOME BASED: TOUR-BASED MODEL 1 school tour TRIP-BASED MODEL 2 home-based non work trips TOTAL TOURS BY INDIVIDUAL: WOMAN: 1 HOME BASED WORK TOUR 1 WORK-BASED MEAL TOUR 2 SERVE PASSENGER STOPS MAN: 1 HOME BASED WORK TOUR 1 SHOPPING STOP CHILD: 1 HOME-BASED SCHOOL TOUR Tours Generated in the IRM

45. Why is it better that the IRM is more detailed in describing why people travel? Able to depict how changes in demographics, like a larger older population, can cause different amounts and types of travel. Able to represent how much accessibility and mixed use density a person’s home zone has to other locations impact the amount of travel they do.

46. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

47. Table 23: Final HBW Trip Attraction Rates by Income Group Income Group Trip Attraction Rate per: Household Production / Distribution Employee Retail Employee Service Employee Low (Less than $15,000)0.0030.0270.0820.070 Middle ($15,000 - $74,999)0.0200.7870.9160.776 High ($75,000 or more)0.0140.2690.2500.440 Total0.0371.0831.2481.286 Source: ATTHBW_R.asc TransCAD file dated 10/22/2003 Notes: 1 Total rates shown only for comparison with models from other regions. To what location do people go to do the activities? In Compass, the trip attractions and productions are used to predict trip origins and destinations.

48. Tij=trips between TAZ i and TAZ j Pi=productions in TAZ i Aj=attractions in TAZ j Kij=“K-factor” adjustment between TAZ i and TAZ j Fij=“friction factor” between TAZ i and TAZ j i=production TAZ j=attraction TAZ n=total number of TAZs In Trip-based models, the gravity model predicts the number of trips from origin to destination based on the number of productions in the origin zone and attractions in the destination zone. Friction Factors are calibrated so that modeled trip length frequency distributions match observed trip length frequency distributions.

49. Trip Distribution Output: O-D matrix

50. Compass model output From Trip Distribution: Home-Based Work Trips from Zone 307020

51. Compass model output From Trip Distribution: Home-Based Non-Work Trips from Zone 307020

52. Tour origin Tour destination Where does the woman go during her day? The IRM destination choice models could predict the following for the woman:

53. The IRM destination choice models could predict the following for the man:

54. Why is it better how destinations are chosen in the IRM? Can test how desirable a location is by how easy it is to get there by all modes including transit. Can test how mixed use density causes a destination to be more desirable Can test how a person chooses destinations close to their usual work or school zone.

55. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

56. How does mode choice work in Compass? Each trip purpose has a model (HBW, HBNW, NHB.) All trips between each zone-pair are treated as being identical. Trips that are really in the same tour know nothing about each other. Outputs are trip tables by mode by purpose (and by income for HBW.)

57. Compass mode choice output: O-D Trips by Mode

58. HOME DAY CARE PARK AND RIDE WORK RESTAURANT Drive- SR2 Drive to Transit Walk Example IRM Mode Choices for the Woman

59. HOME WORK STORE Drive Alone Example IRM Mode Choices for the Man

60. passenger HOME DAY CARE Drive- SR2 Example IRM Mode Choices for the Child

61. Why is the IRM better at representing mode choice? Has bike and walk modes as a choice Represents how Origin and destination employment density impacts a person’s mode choice Represents how a person’s auto availability impacts mode choice Allows school tours and work-based subtours to have different mode choices than other tours (Compass just has home- based other)

62. How does the model do its job? It answers these questions: –What kind of people… –In what kinds of households… –Living in what locations... –Working and going to school where and how –Do what kinds of things during their day… –Requiring them to make what kinds of trips… –To what locations… –By what travel modes… –By what paths through the transportation system? –At what times?

63. When do trips occur? Compass Very Simple Model: Time-of-Day Factors For Example, 68% of Home-Based Work Tours, arrive at work from 6:30 am –9:00 am.

64. Compass: Time-of-Day Factors applied (based on total observed vehicles hours observed in each period)

65. Compass Model Time of Day Outputs: O-D Trips by Time of Day

66. IRM Time of Day Models Tour time-of-day: –Predicts start and end of tour –Higher priority tours run first, block out times of day not available to lower priority toursTour time-of-day: Trip time-of-day: –Predicts departure time from each stop –In-transit time known, so serves as departure time and duration model

67. HOME DAY CARE PARK AND RIDE WORK RESTAURANT time Time time Example IRM Mode Choices for the Woman

68. Why are the IRM time of day models better? Can better represent time-shifting due to congestion Can represent how changes in demographics impact time of day choices, i.e. more retired people means less congestion peaking Can represent how a person’s mode choice impacts what time of day they travel, i.e. I can’t take the bus until 3:15 PM

69. Example Tour Outcomes for the Family : Purpose, Origin, Destination Mode, Time of Day

70. Finally, in both the IRM and Compass models the choices of where to go, when, by what mode are assigned to the networks. Example AM Peak Highway Flows:

71. The woman drives with the child to the daycare down 120 th, then takes the bus route 122X to Civic Center, and walks from the station to work down Broadway.

72. Key Model Differences Trip/tour generation sensitivity. Time-of-day sensitivity. Development pattern sensitivity. Modeling of non-motorized modes and walk access to transit. Trips connected in tours. Person-level decisions made at the person level – using many person characteristics.

73. Scenario Sensitivity Examples- Why the IRM is better? How does putting on the glasses help us see better? Effects of aging population or other changes in demographics. Effects of neighborhood “gentrification.” Enhanced EJ evaluation. Better evaluation of “induced demand.” “Peak spreading” effects. Effects of transit-oriented development. Effect of built environment on Bike and Ped Movement

74. Walk Mode Shares Example Output

75. Bike Mode Shares Example Output

76. Factors that make a trip more likely to use walk/bike modes Factors that make a trip less likely to use walk/bike modes PERSON CHARACTERISTICS No car in Household Fewer cars than drivers Low income University student Meal or Social Trip Purpose BUILT ENVIRONMENT Mixed use origin/destination Intersection density CBD destination Residential density PERSON CHARACTERISTICS High income Age over 50 Female Preschool age Driving age HS student BUILT ENVIRONMENT Rural origin Long walk/bike time

77. A Bit on Status All models estimated (around 50 or so.) Database design complete. –Suzanne Childress will talk more about this. Software 2/3 complete. –Jen Malm will talk more about this.