1. Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of Well-Being by Gary Burtless The Brookings Institution August 11, 2009 Social Security Administration and Retirement Research Consortium Conference

2. Number (millions) and percent foreign born, 1850-2007 Source: Census Bureau.

3. Immigration and the income and wage distributions  Historically high rates of immigration  Major differences between immigrants and current residents  Age distribution  Skill mix  Direct impact on distribution of well-being  Average wage  Average income  Age-profile of income

4. Immigration and the income and wage distributions  Ignore feedback effects on natives’ wages  Use March CPS / ASEC files to estimate trends in wages, incomes if there were fewer immigrants  Identification of immigrants, year of entry  YEARS: 1993-2007  POLICY CHANGE: 1980  Doubtful identification of adult children of post- 1979 immigrants

5. Post-1979 immigrants in the U.S. wage distribution, 1993-2007 Share = 13.3% Share = 10.6% Share = 5.8% Source: Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC files.

6. Average Annual Wage by Immigrant Status and Year of Entry into the U.S., 1993 - 2007 Source: Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files. 19% 26%

7. Impact of Reduced Immigration after 1979 on Level of Economy-Wide Average U.S. Wage, 1980-2007 Source: Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.

8. Impact of Post-1979 Immigration on Average Size-Adjusted Personal Income, 1993 - 2007 Source: Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files. -2.0% -3.2%

9. Impact of selected changes in immigration policy on median size-adjusted personal income, 1993-2007 Source: Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC files. Percent of median size-adjusted income in indicated year +1.8% +1.7% +1.0% +1.1%

10. Increase in size-adjusted average income resulting from 20% cut in immigration after 1979: IMPACT ON AGE PROFILE OF INCOME (2006)

11. Increase in size-adjusted average income resulting from reduced immigration after 1979: IMPACT of ALTERNATIVE POLICIES (2006) 20% OVERALL CUT 50% CUT IN DROPOUTS 50% CUT IN MEXICAN IMMIGRATION

12. Immigration and well-being  Reduced immigration would --  Raise average wage of remaining population  Produce faster growth in initial social security benefits  Increase residents’ average income relative  Boost the relative incomes of residents who are members of households headed by younger adults  These conclusions ignore spillover effects of lower immigrant labor supply on prices and on natives’ employment and wages