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Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives Eric Kaufmann e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk Twitter: @epkaufm
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Data Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. – 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters – Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward – Longitudinal – LA and ward census data appended Local Election Data, 2010-12 – UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 – Ward and LA census data appended
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…. British Election Study Internet Panel 2015, Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June 2014 (Fieldhouse et. al) – 35,000 sample size – LA is lowest geographic identifier – Panel study, with second wave to come – LA level electoral data appended
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2010 Vote Only (full data) 2010 Vote Only (multilevel data) +Labour Contextuals +Attitudes +Labour Contextuals +Attitudes BetaS.E.BetaS.E.BetaS.E.BetaS.E.BetaS.E. Age.017.002.014.003.014.003.007*.003.007*.003 Personal Income-.001.006-.003.009-.002.009-.006.010-.006.010 Tabloid/Broadsheet.525***.072.550***.082.549***.079.164*.079.158*.074 Education level -.285***.045-.340***.037-.344***.038-.113*.050-.124*.053 Female -.336***.040-.414***.086-.416***.085-.445**.132-.451**.131 2010 Tory Voter.477**.145.241**.083-.137.163-.115.123-.703**.230 2010 Labour Voter-.839***.087-.781***.129-.763***.129-.688***.160-.644***.154 2010 BNP Voter1.908***.2321.798***.3371.815***.343.850**.433.895**.439 2010 UKIP Voter2.641***.1632.575***.1732.579***.1802.028***.2612.038***.275 Labour % of LA Vote -.003.004-.009*.004 Labour % of LA Vote x Tory voter in 2010.011**.004.017***.005 Immigration Cultural Benefits -.352***.027-.353***.028 Out of EU 1.721***.1011.724***.102 Satisfied UK Democracy -.465***.035-.471***.035 _cons-2.516***.218-1.929***.197-1.803***.188-.516*.215-.133.225 Pseudo R2.11.104.105.2586.2601 N182356595 6025 Method: Logistic, clustered on LA; also multilevel
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Model 1Model 2 (+attitudes) BetaS.E.BetaS.E. Age.015***(.004).006(.004) Tabloid/Broadsheet.525***(.085).158*(.077) Education level-.328***(.045)-.128*(.055) Female-.419***(.088)-.443**(.132) Vote 2010 (Ref none): Conservative -.287(.181)-.649**(.212) Labour-.862***(.145)-.569***(.151) Lib Dem-.253(.150).069(.156) BNP1.720***(.313).967*(.427) UKIP2.473***(.206)2.112***(.281) Other party.842*(.282).759**(.276) Don't know.234(.235).245(.290) Labour % of LA Vote-.004(.003)-.009*(.004) Labour % of LA Vote x Tory voter in 2010.012**(.004).017***(.004) Immigration Cultural Benefits-.352***(.027) Out of EU1.716***(.103) Satisfied UK Democracy-.473***(.034) _cons-1.706***(.143)-.184(.229) Pseudo R2.108.260 N65905981
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Method: multilevel (region) Tory-UKIP Switcher Tory-UKIP Switcher (+Attitudes) Labour-UKIP Switcher (+Attitudes) Age.019***(.003).014***(.003).004(.006) Personal Income-.011(.007)-.012(.008).006(.015) Tabloid/Broadsheet.466***(.076).141(.086).044(.160) Education level-.245***(.059)-.137(.066).106(.127) Female-.346***(.073)-.354***(.082)-.386*(.153) Immigration Cultural Benefits -.291***(.031)-.457***(.059) Out of EU1.786***(.134)1.990***(.205) Satisfied UK Democracy -.772***(.050)-.193*(.091) _cons-2.039***(.236)-.467(.319)-2.178***(.568) Level 2: Region (variance components).026**(.018).023*(.018).114**(.072) Avg. obs. per region527.5500.3375.5 Log Likelihood-2481.8-1956.8-631.7 N580355034130
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Source: Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre)
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UKIP-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Labour vote ratio DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio
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UKIP harms Tories…. but also hurts the Left? UKIP damaging Tories, but: Right-wing parties gain in combined share over time as UKIP share rises Canadian example ??
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Source: Plymouth Elections Centre
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Populist Right Harms Conservatives Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre)
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But, UKIP share rises with right bloc in leftist areas, then tapers off
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