1. How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland? BSPS Conference September 2007 Dr David Marshall NISRA

2. How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

3. Outline what we do know & Data in population estimates

4. UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.” UN (1998) - In use across European Union - “Usually resident” population

5. A8: Eastern European countries that joined European Union in May 2004 Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia

6. 1.In and out-migration sources 2.Migration estimates for NI 3.Conclusions

7. Births to Mothers Born outside Northern Ireland -Registering births in NI, mother supplies information on her country of birth -New NI mothers born outside the UK & Ireland – 700 in 2001 up to 1,450 in 2006 (projected 1,700 in 2007) -A8 mothers – 2 births in 1997 – 650 (projected) births in 2007

8. Mother’s Country of Birth Registration Year 2001…200420052006 2007 (Jan- Jun) Northern Ireland18,994…19,05919,03919,61110,166 Rest of UK1,553…1,4041,4601,475731 Republic of Ireland724…689706736375 A8 Countries12…34110390321 Other Countries / Unknown679…1,13210131,060545 All Births21,962… 22,31822,32823,27212,138 Births registered in NI

9. Annual School Census –Annual School Census - English as an additional language (October 2006) –1.5% or nearly 2,400 “primary” school children have English as an additional language –A8 languages: c0.7% - 1,100 “primary” school- children (Polish most popular) –School Census not a measure of migration

10. Worker Registration Scheme –Set up by UK Government (Home Office) –A8 nationals required to register –May 2004 - March 2007 UK: 605k people NI: 24k (3.9%) –WRS: 50% in temporary employment (short-term) –Covers working age population - no need to deregister

11. NI WRS Registrations by quarter (May 2004 - March 2007)

12. NI WRS Registrations by local authority of employment per 1,000 resident population (May 2004 – March 2006)

13. NI Worker Registration Scheme –Numerically high in Belfast, Mid-Ulster –Mid-Ulster rate effect –Lithuanian effect in Northern Ireland (20% of NI registrations – 10% in UK )

14. New registrations with a family doctor – health cards - Central Services Agency record (re)registrations with family doctors - Form available in 7 languages (English, Portuguese, Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Russian and Czech) -Non-UK registrations rising from 7,200 in 2003 to 13,600 in 2005 and again to 18,000 in 2006 - Numerically highest in Belfast, Mid-Ulster LGDs

15. New Health Card Registrations from outside UK by quarter of application (2003 - 2006)

16. Deregistrations from a family doctor list - Central Services Agency record deregistration from family doctor list - Deregistrations rising from 4,400 in 2003 to 5,600 in 2006 - Incomplete data (evidence from 1990s around 1/3 of people are not deregistered)

17. UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.” Migration estimates for NI

18. Country of BirthNumberPercentage Northern Ireland1,534,26891.0% England61,6093.7% Scotland16,7721.0% Wales3,0080.2% Republic of Ireland39,0512.3% Other EU countries10,3550.6% Elsewhere20,2041.2% All persons1,685,267100.0% 2001 Census “Country of Birth”

19. NI methodology to estimate migration IPS not used in NI population estimates - NI ports not included - Ireland / Northern Ireland - Small sample size for NI Migration into NI: GP registrations – Small adjustment made for young adult males Migration out of NI: – GP registrations in GB (UK figures agreed) – CSO Ireland Household Survey for RoI – GP deregistrations for elsewhere – Elsewhere figures adjusted for incompleteness and young adult males

20. –1970s/1980s - NI exporter of people (“The Troubles”) –1990s – migration in balance 20,000 in (13,000 from GB, 2,000 RoI, 5,000 Rest of World) 20,000 out (13,000 to GB, 7,000 Rest of World) –Post- 2001 Increasing levels of migration Summary of NI picture

21. Background: Estimates of Net Migration in Northern Ireland (1973/4-2005/6) Population Gain Population Loss EU Expansion The “Troubles”

22. Combined 2005 Survey Results Combined 2006 Survey Results Households Households surveyed2,2763,727 No. where someone left in last year139191 Perc.6%5% People Number of people who left167228 Went elsewhere in Northern Ireland130169 Went to Great Britain1933 Went to Republic of Ireland78 Went to outside UK and Ireland/Unknown1118 Household Survey: “Has anyone left your household?” Out-migration (Partial)

23. Research report Data published in two NISRA reports July 2006 and July 2007 see www.nisra.gov.uk/demography Selection of some of the research/sources outlined – NINos, WP data ….www.nisra.gov.uk/demography

24. Other research - National Insurance Numbers falling out of use - Proposed survey of migrants (attitudes/intentions etc…)

25. Conclusion - NI migration levels have increased - EU expansion (big impact) - 2006 larger migration estimates - New developments on out-migration

26. How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland? BSPS Conference September 2007 Dr David Marshall NISRA