Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

2014 © 2014 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. LWI.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "2014 © 2014 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. LWI."— Presentation transcript:

1 2014 © 2014 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. LWI Financial Inc. (“Loring Ward”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Securities transactions are offered through its affiliate, Loring Ward Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. B 14-025 (Exp. 04/16)

2 2 U.S. and International Market Indexes January 1, 2014 through March 31, 2014 Market Returns Global 1-5 Year Bonds +0.6% BONDS U.S. STOCKS Emerging Markets Stocks -0.4% Int’l Small Stocks +3.5% Int’l Value Stocks +1.1% U.S. REIT Stocks +10.4% U.S. Small Cap Stocks +1.1% U.S. Value Stocks +3.0% U.S. Large Cap Stocks +1.8% INTERNATIONAL STOCKS U.S. Gov/ Credit 1-3 Year Bonds +0.3% Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: U.S. Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), U.S. Value Stocks (Russell 1000 Value Index), U.S. Small Company Stocks (Russell 2000 Index), U.S. Real Estate Market (Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index), International Developed Value (MSCI World Ex USA Value Index (net div.)), International Small (MSCI World Ex USA Small (net div.)), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div)), Global Bonds (Citi WGBI 1-5 Yr Hdg USD), US Bonds (BofA ML Corp & Govt 1-3 Yr TR). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Annualized for 5 and 10 Year Periods ONE Year 21.921.624.94.319.121.1-1.40.90.7 FIVE Years 21.221.824.328.916.421.514.51.82.0 TEN Years 7.47.68.58.16.78.410.13.12.8

3 3 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. 5 and 10 year periods are annualized. Asset allocations and index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Stocks represented by MSCI World IMI Index (net div.) and Bonds represented by 50% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Yr Hedged and 50% Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Treasury/Agency 1-3 Yr. Globally diversified portfolios rebalanced annually. Hypothetical value of $1 and kept invested through December 31, 2013 from the respective dates. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Diversified Portfolios Review Asset Class Qtr 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 10 Year Volatility 100% Stocks 1.519.619.07.216.3 75-25 1.215.114.76.711.9 50-50 0.910.410.35.77.7 25-75 0.65.65.94.43.7 100% Bonds 0.30.71.52.81.3 Growth of Wealth Apr 2004 – Mar 2014

4 4 What Worried the Markets

5 5 Is the US Stock Market Rigged? Source: 60 Minutes: Is the U.S. Stock Market Rigged? March 30, 2014, http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/03/charles-schwab-jack-bogle-join- the-debate-on-high-frequency-trading/, http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/hender/HFT-PD.pdf,http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/03/charles-schwab-jack-bogle-join- the-debate-on-high-frequency-trading/http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/hender/HFT-PD.pdf The impact on investors can be hard to measure and likely not as clear cut as may be implied. Vanguard Founder, Jack Bogle: “We are better off with high- frequency trading than we are without it.” Dr. Hendershott: “Overall HFTs facilitate price efficiency.”

6 6 Ukraine Tensions in Ukraine caused volatility in financial markets UKRAINE

7 7 As of December 31, 2013 SS1110 In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg Securities Data. Many nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to mainland China investors. 1. An example large cap stock provided for comparison. International and emerging markets involve additional risks, including, but not limited to, currency fluctuation, political instability, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. As a result, they may not be suitable investment options for everyone. Capitalization over time United States Developed markets Emerging markets Not invested World Market Capitalization

8 8 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Annualized and Cumulative return of the S&P 500 index from March 9, 2009 through March 7, 2014. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Investors with time horizons of less than five years should consider minimizing or avoiding investing in common stocks. With so many villains- are there any Super Heroes???

9 9 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Annualized and Cumulative return of the S&P 500 index from March 9, 2009 through March 7, 2014. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Investors with time horizons of less than five years should consider minimizing or avoiding investing in common stocks.

10 10 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Annualized and Cumulative return of the S&P 500 index from March 9, 2009 through March 7, 2014. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Investors with time horizons of less than five years should consider minimizing or avoiding investing in common stocks.

11 11 Investment Perspectives

12 12 What do these people all have in common? Will I have enough to retire? Should I move to all bonds? How long does my money have to last?

13 13 Retirees Should Plan for a Long Retirement Probability of a 65-year-old living to various ages Source: 2012 Individual Annuity Mortality Basic Tables, Society of Actuaries. © 2014 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved 0 25 50 75 100% 65 years old707580859095100105 80 87 86 92 91 96 82 88 93 Male Female At Least One Spouse

14 14 When planning retirement many make a simple budget of their spending estimate Groceries Utilities Vacation Property Tax They then invest their nest egg to fund that amount of withdrawal Nest Egg Annual Spending Needs

15 15 Mortgage 14.5% What were you planning for in 1984? S&P 500: 164 Film CD 11.0% Technology

16 16 Mortgage 4.5% 30 Years Later S&P 500: 1,800 No More Film CD 1% Technology

17 17 Disney World Ticket $17 $95 5.9% Corn Flakes $0.89 $3.79 4.9% Big Mac $1.50 $4.62 3.8% Gallon of Gas $1.25 $3.52 3.5% Movie Ticket $3.36 $8.35 3.1% This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Sources: Allears.net, National Association of Theatre Owners, http://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.txthttp://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.txt Erosion of Purchasing Power 1984 2014 30 Year Inflation

18 18 Dwindling value of a dollar over 30 years due to inflation Source: DFA Returns 2.0, Compounding historical rate of consumer price index from 1926-2013 average of 2.96% for 30 years. For illustrative purposes only INFLATION

19 19 Inflation Risk: Will Returns Keep Pace with Inflation? 9.9% 6.7% 5.5% 2.5% 3.5% 0.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Before inflationAfter inflationBefore inflationAfter inflationBefore inflationAfter inflation Bonds Stocks Cash Annualized Returns 1926 to 2013 Source: DFA Returns 2.0. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Stocks are represented by the CRSP 1-10 Index; Bonds are represented by the Ibbotson/SBBI Long-Term Government Bonds Index; Inflation is represented by CPI. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

20 20 Understanding the Tradeoffs Preservation of Purchasing Power Worst-Performing Periods Real Total Returns StocksBonds -63% (1941-1981) -54% (1929–1931) U.S. 1926–2013 Preservation of Capital Worst-Performing Periods Nominal Total Returns StocksBonds -15% (2009) -64% (1929-1932) Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: Bonds (SBBI US Long Term Government Bond), Stocks (CRSP 1-10 Index). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk.

21 21 Understanding the Tradeoffs Bonds 1940-1991 Stocks 1928-1936 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: Bonds (SBBI US Long Term Government Bond), Stocks (CRSP 1-10 Index). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Purchasing Power of $1

22 22 Stocks are risky year to year CRSP 1-10 Return minus Long Term Government Bonds Return — 1926-2013 192620131994197719601943 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: Bonds (SBBI US Long Term Government Bond), Stocks (CRSP 1-10 Index). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk.

23 23 An investor can reduce portfolio risk by holding combinations of investments which are not perfectly positively correlated. Modern Portfolio Theory — 1952 University of Chicago 1990 Nobel Prize in Economics Harry Markowitz Please note: Diversification cannot ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Modern Portfolio Theory

24 24 Probability of Meeting Income Needs Various withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations over a 25-year retirement CRSP 1-10 minus Long Term Government Bonds — 1926-2013 IMPORTANT: Projections generated by Morningstar regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes using the Ibbotson Wealth Forecasting Engine are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 “A limitation of this simulation model is that it assumes a constant inflation-adjusted rate of withdrawal, which may not be representative of actual retirement income needs. This type of simulation also assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond, inflation by the Consumer Price Index and mutual fund expenses from Morningstar. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The data assumes reinvestment of income and does not account for taxes Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed. See slide 27 for further discussion of Simulation Criteria and Methodology. 5% Withdrawal Rate4% Withdrawal Rate

25 Source: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholder letter, 2013, www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf. Siegel, Jeremy, Future for Investors (2005), With Updates to 2013 Data is from Jan. 1, 1802 – June. 30, 2013. Hypothetical value of $1 invested on January 1, 1802 and kept invested through June 30, 2013. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock investing involves risks, including volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Investors with time horizons of less than five years should consider minimizing or avoiding investing in common stocks. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise, issuer's creditworthiness declines, and are subject to availability and changes in price. The price of gold may be affected by global gold supply and demand, currency exchange rates and interest rates. Investors should be aware that there is no assurance that gold will maintain its long-term value in terms of purchasing power in the future. T Bills are backed by the US government and are subject to interest rate and inflation risk. T Bill values will decline as interest rates rise. The value of the U.S. dollar depreciates over time with inflation, so the primary risk is inflation risk. Total Real Return Indexes January 1, 1802 – December 31, 2013 “Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits — and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments.” — W ARREN B UFFET 25

26 26 Standardized Performance Data and Disclosures Average Annual Total Returns (%)3 Mo1 Yr5 Yr10 YrSince Inception S&P 500 TR 1.8121.8621.167.4210.60 Jan-70 Russell 1000 Value TR USD 3.0221.5721.757.5812.50 Dec-78 Russell 2000 TR USD 1.1224.9024.328.5312.03 Dec-78 DJ US Select REIT TR USD 10.354.3528.938.059.17 Dec-86 MSCI World Ex USA Value NR USD 1.0919.0816.406.7111.94 Dec-74 MSCI World Ex USA Small Cap NR USD 3.4521.1221.518.419.56 Dec-00 MSCI EM NR USD -0.43-1.4314.4810.1110.69 Dec-98 Citi WGBI 1-5 Yr Hdg USD 0.550.931.823.125.90 Jan-85 BofAML US Corp&Govt 1-3 Yr TR USD 0.250.742.042.815.35 Jun-86 Data as of 3/31/14 Source: Morningstar Direct 2014. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Fixed Income investments are subject to interest and credit risk.

27 27  Many of the following images were created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation. This model estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used herein are the historical 1926–2013 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.2%, return 12.1%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.4%; Correlation 0.00; Inflation: return 3.0%.  Note that other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. Each simulation produces 35 randomly selected return estimates consistent with the characteristics of the portfolio to estimate the return distribution over a 35-year period. Each simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible 35-year scenarios. A limitation of the simulation model is that it assumes the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Discussion of Simulation Criteria and Methodology

28 To ask a question, open your GoToWebinar control panel by clicking on the orange icon with an arrow. Type your question into the Question box and hit send. For further questions, please contact Your Financial Advisor QUESTIONS Loring Ward is a strategist on the Lifetime Wealth Portfolios Platform offered by Eagle Strategies LLC (Eagle). The strategist creates and updates a model portfolio utilizing various mutual funds or exchange traded funds and delivers the model portfolio to Envestnet Asset Management, Inc. (Envestnet) for implementation. [Loring Ward uses the Dimensional Funds exclusively in its management under the Lifetime Wealth Portfolio platform.] An investor should refer to his/her Investment Management Agreement as well as the Disclosure Brochure for each of the firms noted above for complete information on their respective roles and responsibilities. Loring Ward, Envestnet, and Eagle are registered investment advisers with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are not affiliated companies. SMRU# 528301 Exp. 4/30/2014


Download ppt "2014 © 2014 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. LWI."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google