1. The Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics Mount Stromlo Observatory

2. The Birth of Modern Cosmological Theory 1915 General Relativity Published by Einstein and Hilbert 1916 first Cosmological Model published by de Sitter (empty Universe) 1917 Einstein’s “static” Cosmological Constant Universe, de Sitter’s  Universe. 1922 Friedmann’s solutions for homogenous and isotropic Universe

3. Birth of Observational Cosmology 1916 Slipher finds redshift of galaxies 1923 Hubble definitively shows galaxies are beyond the Milky Way 1927 Lemaitre’s “homogeneous Universe of constant mass and growing radius accounting for the radial velocity of extragalactic nebulae” –Independently derived Friedmann Equations –Suggested Universe was expanding –Showed it was confirmed by Hubble’s data. Mathematics accepted by Einstein, but basic idea rejected by Einstein as fanciful 1929 Hubble’s Expanding Universe –Lemaitre invoking  to make Universe older than the Solar System

4. By the 1930s the basic Paradigm for Understanding The Universe was in place Theory of Gravity –General Relativity Assumption –Universe is homogenous and isotropic

5. The Standard Model Robertson-Walker line element Friedmann Equation a(t) is known as the scale factor-it tracks the size of a piece of the Universe

6. Model Content of Universe by theEquation of Model Content of Universe by the Equation of State of the different forms of Matter/Energy e.g., w  for normal matter w  for photons w  for Cosmological Constant

7. Flat Universe –Matter Dominated

8. Flat Universe – Radiation Dominated

9. Flat Universe –Cosmological Constant Dominated

10. Domination of the Universe As Universe Expands –Photon density increases as (1+z) 4 –Matter density increases as (1+z) 3 –Cosmological Constant invariant (1+z) 0 Note that exactly flat Universe remains flat – i.e.  i =1 Accelerating Models tend towards flatness overtime (w<-1/3) Non accelerating(w>-1/3) models tend away from flatness over time.

11. Log(a) Log(t) radiation matter Cosmological Constant

12. Classical Observational Tests 1950s-1995 Distances –Luminosity distance (How bright an object appears as a function of redshift) –Angular Size Distance (How big an object appears as a function of redshift) Age - –how old an object is as a function of redshift Volume –how many objects per unit redshift Sandage “[Observational Cosmology is the quest for two numbers, H 0 and q 0 ]”

13. the flux an observer sees of an object at redshift z Brightness or size of object depends exclusively on what is in the Universe - How much and its equation of state.

14. relative size/brightness -30% 0% 50% 100% 150% fainter/smaller brighter/larger

15. Age Matter-only Flat Carroll, Press, Turner 92

16. Volume Carroll, Press, Turner 92

17. Sandage, Humason & Mayhall 1956 Baum 1957 Peach 1970 Deceleration q 0 >1 Brightest Cluster Galaxies Gunn and Oke 1975 Gunn and Tinsley 1975 But Tinsley 1976 showed Evolution dominates Cosmology

18. Age Measurements 1950-1990 Hubble Constant Measurements Difficult! 40 < H 0 < 100 km/s/Mpc 24.5 > 1/H 0 > 9.8 Gyr Oldest star ages 13-20 Gyr 0.53 < H 0 t < 2.05 Carroll, Press, Turner

19. Excess z~2 QSOs: Loitering Universe Petrosian, V., Saltpeter, E.E. & Szekeres, P. 1967

20. 1970s & 80s Inflation + Cold Dark Matter addition to Standard Model Inflation Explains Uniformity of CMB Provides seeds of structure formation CDM Consistent with rotation curves of Galaxies Gives Structure formation Predicts Flatness and how Structure Grows on different scales.

21. It was widely presumed that Universe was made up of normal matter (Theorists) Inflation+CDM paradigm correct  ~ 1 H 0 <=50km/s/Mpc Observers are wrong on H 0 and  M (Observers)  M ~0.2 H 0 =50-80km/s/Mpc Inflation/CDM is wrong

22. 1990 - CDM Picture conflicts with what is seen Requires flatness, but  M ~0.2 from clusters Too much power on large scales in observations Efstathiou, Sutherland, and Maddox showed that compared to  M =1, a  M ~0.2,   ~0.8 fixed both problems

23. CDM theorists took this approach

25. Common theme - Written by Theorists with the assertion- inflation+CDM are right

26. Used same CDM+inflation orthodoxy, but “measured” flatness from CMB.

27. Dekel 93 POTENT Mohr et al 1995 Value of  M was not Crystal Clear While much of the evidence favoured that  M ~0.2, There was also evidence suggesting  M ~1

28. Angular Size Distance with Compact Radio Sources Kellerman (1993) Stepanas & Saha (1995) showed not that constraining

29. Number counts of Galaxies suggest  But Galaxy evolution not trusted

32. Zwicky’s SN Search from 1930s-1960s giving Kowal’s Hubble Diagram in 1968 Ib/Ic SN Contamination realised in 1984/5 1st distant SN discovered in 1988 by a Danish team (z=0.3) 7 SNe discovered in 1994 by Perlmutter et al. at z = 0.4 Calan/Tololo Survey of 29 Nearby SNe Ia completed in 1994 High-Z SN Ia History

33. Calan-Tololo SN Search Hamuy Suntzeff Schommer Phillips Maza Smith

34. Mark Phillips (1993) How fast a Supernova Fades is related to its intrinsic brightness.

35. A Most Useful Way of Parameterizing SNe Ia is by the Shape of their Light Curve Phillips (1993) & Hamuy et al. (1996) MBMB

36. Proof is really that it works… dm15, MLCS, stretch, BATM, SALT,Sifto,Cmagic…

37. 4 April SN 28 April

38. Adam Riess was leading our efforts in the fall of 1997 to increase our sample of 4 objects to 15. EUREKA? Adam’s Lab book, Key Page, Fall 1997: He found the total sum of Mass to be negative - which meant acceleration.

43. High-Z SN Observations directly measured distances which were incompatible with any matter-only Universes. But SN Ia themselves might be affected by Dust, evolution or measurement difficulties, and Community felt they were not to be completely trusted on their own.  M =0.25,   =0.75 Universe compatible with most Cosmological measurements except for lensing limits (Kochanek 1996) and high  M measurements.

44. The Equation of State Garnavich et al. 1998  w  +    =1 The beginnings of the quest to measure the equation of state of Dark Energy EOS was new stuff to us, so we had no problem giving the constant the name 

45. 1994-7 CDM+Inflation applied to Microwave Background W. Hu

46. CMB - mid 1998

47. 2000 - Boomerang & MAXIMA Clearly see 1st Doppler Peak Once a Flat Universe was measured, the SN Ia measurements went from being 3-4  to >7 

48. 2001 - LSS & CMB Peacock et al 2001 Jaffe et al. 2001 2dF redshift survey finds  M ~0.3 from power spectrum and infall

49. Getting Rid of Dark Energy requires 2 out of 3 experiments to be wrong

50. 2003 - WMAP+2dF+SNIa+H 0

51. 1998-2005 The Rise of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations From any initial density fluctuation, a expanding spherical perturbation propagates at the speed of sound until recombination. The physics of these baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is well understood, and their manifestation as wiggles in the CMB fluctuation spectrum is modeled to very high accuracy – the 1 st peak has a size of 147±2 Mpc (co-moving), from WMAP-5

52. Modelling shows that this scale is preserved in the Dark Matter and Baryons. A survey of the galaxy density field should reveal this characteristic scale. Need Gpc 3 and 100,000 test particles to reasonably measure the acoustic scale. Angular measurement gives you an Angular-size distance to compare to the CMB scale - and potentially a redshift-based scale that measures H(z). The largest galaxy surveys to date, the 2dF, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey, have yielded a detection of the BAO at =0.2 and =0.35 Eisenstein et al. 2005

53. Where we Stand now SN Ia (SNLS, Higher-Z, Essence, low-Z stuff) + WMAP5 +BAO(SDSS)+ HST H 0 Kowalski et al 08  w  +    =1

54. Where we Stand now SN Ia (SNLS, Higher-Z, Essence, low-Z stuff) + WMAP5 +BAO(SDSS & 2dF) + HST H 0 Komatsu et al 08 w  w     all constrained simultaneously

55. If the Universe is Homogenous and Isotropic the Universe is Accelerating! Expand the Robertson-Walker Metric and see how D(1+z,q 0 )... Supernova Data are good enough now to show the acceleration independent of assuming General Relativity. Daly et al. 2008 redshift

56. Dark Energy ? only if the Universe is not homogenous or isotropic - Robertson Walker Metric invalid. Occam’s Razor does not favour us living in the center of a spherical under-density whose size and radial fall-off is matched to the acceleration. Theoretical Discussion on whether or not the growth of structure can kink the metric in such a way to mimic the effects of Dark Energy. This is the only way out I can see - But controversial!

57. Dark Energy looks a lot like  In total, as near as we can tell the Universe is expanding just as a Cosmological Constant would predict. Observers are searching blindly, hoping to find something that distinguishes it from . Current currency that describes our progress is –uncertainty in the measurement of w –future progress is to be measured in the w=w 0 +w 1 (a) plane We need to remember this is parameterized ignorance. The Goal is to constrain physics based models, not essentially meaningless numbers.

58. BAO can measures effects of Dark Energy itself Percival et al. 07 - ratio of BAO (2dF+SDSS vs. SDSS LRG) distances Problem with BAO distances - Concordance Universe Problem with SN Ia - Non-  Dark Energy BAO Disagrees with Concordance Model?

59. Measuring  astronomically Measure wavelengths of various transitions of lines seen in Quasars Do I believe  has been measured? Not yet. Has this result been disproved? Not Yet. Really requires specific instrumentation.

60. Dark Energy Futures SN Ia 2nd Generation Surveys Provide distances to 1000s+ objects at 0.05<z<1.5 (include SNLS, Higher-Z, Essence, SDSS-II Experiments, SkyMapper, Pan-Starrs, PTI...) Most Precise Measurements of Dark Energy’s Properties of any experiments to date - but are we reaching a systematic wall? Blue-Chip stock over the short-term, but long term future is hazy

61. Dark Energy Futures CMB WMAP 5 may have milked the Sky for what it is worth when it comes to Dark Energy Possible excitement through improved measurements of H 0 Through tying distance scale to NGC4258 Maser Distance rather than LMC. (Riess et al) Potential for Future Geometric Distances (more distant NGC4258s, or Gravity Waves from merging black-holes) WMAP/Planck Detection of Polarization B-modes could confirm/revolutionise basic Inflation-CDM picture

62. Dark Energy Futures BAOs Low Risk Growth Stock from Glazebrook

63. Dark Energy Futures Growth of Structure High Risk - High Growth Stock –Measuring the growth of Dark Matter structures as a function of redshift is potentially the most powerful probe of Dark Energy we have. –Weak Lensing and Clusters provide ways forward, but questions about systematics abound.

64. Dark Energy Futures The Unexpected –Astronomy is full of Mysteries besides Dark Energy –By continuing to explore the Universe around us from the solar system to 13.7 Gyr ago, we might well gain insight in Dark Energy from an Unexpected Place This is my Best Bet for Understanding Dark Energy