1. Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC

2. Vulnerability- general definition Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover Is a function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND coping capacity (internal and external) Arises from multiple stresses Is the result of a process Is dynamic and differential

3. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC Exposure to GEC

4. GECAFS perspective: MULTIPLE stressors produce vulnerabilities that are multi- dimensional FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY HIV-AIDS Climate Change Political Unrest Floods, Droughts Currency Fluctuations Water Pollution Economic Recession War Change in Trading Agreements

5. Social or biophysical vulnerability? Social: Vulnerability is socially determined and is a function of access to assets or resources, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures Biophysical: depends upon understanding of ecosystems –Ecologists (ala Holling) mention wealth and diversity, connections/ controllability, adaptive capacity

6. Adaptive capacity Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses –Function of assets and access to them Ecological = resilience = –How much shock system can take without change –Ability to self-organize –Ability to adapt and learn –Often function of slow variables, such as reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

8. Food systems are social and ecological, or ‘coupled’ systems –Theoretically appealing, but how to describe in practice? Environmental management is function of social, political and institutional mechanisms. Look at the potential hazards from GEC in the context of socio-economic change

9. The Main Elements of Food Systems: Drivers, Activities, Outcomes Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental Security, and other societal interests Food Availability Food Utilisation Food Access Environm. Security Social Interests DRIVERS Interactions GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Wider Societal Interests relate to Food Systems Food Security Environment Security Other Securities

10. Vulnerability of IGP food systems Function of: –The vulnerable parameter –Stress –Exposure –Sensitivity –Coping capacity or resilience –In context of multiple stressors –Note time and scale –Logic of why vulnerable (process) – recent history!

11. Exercise In the same groups as yesterday (sites 1, 2, 3 and 4, 5) identify five to eight food system outcome determinants (or activities) that are vulnerable to GEC- induced changes in water availability –Explain WHY!

12. Exercise – part 2 Identify five food system outcome determinants (or activities) that have adaptive capacity in the face of GEC- induced changes to water availability –Explain WHY!

13. Space and time Why an issue for vulnerability? –DIFFERENTIAL and DYNAMIC Stress can be chronic, cumulative or one time Different locations experience the stress differently How to capture this? –Define who, where and when What tools do we have for this?

14. Gujarat, Punjab, Pakistan : wheat dominates, food self- sufficient, mixed irrigation, high level of infrastructure, moderate income, policies function somewhat. Ludihana, Central Punjab, India : wheat and rice predominate, slow to stagnant productivity growth, groundwater dependent, lots of investment, high income levels, functional policy support. Vaisahali District, Bihar, India: rice preferred, low infrastructure investment, flooding, low income levels, out migration, little government policy support. Greater Faridpur, Bangladesh: rice dominates, flooding and concern over salt water intrusion, low income levels, government institutions fail. GECAFS Research Sites in the IGP Ruhani Basin, Terai of Nepal: rice preferred, transition zone, seasonal flooding, out-migration, sharecropping dominates, urbanization increasing.

15. Tools for space/ time Map ‘hot spots’ –Ecological –Social? –With GIS layers can show multiple impacts and differentials Time? –Need historical maps, calendars, etc. Causal maps of vulnerability? –Problem trees? Spider grams?

16. Quantifying vulnerability: indicators Indicators are often proxies for what we cannot measure directly What data can we find to represent the vulnerability of the food system parameters we have identified? –Focus on processes –Go through our tables Correlations or significant relationships?

17. Examples of indicators of vulnerability Webhe etal look at three components of adaptive capacity: –Access to resources –Flexibility –Stability For each context, determine indicators

18. Examples of indicators of vulnerability Adger et al: set of indicators to evaluate national level vulnerability to climate change

19. Poverty and vulnerability Relationship is much debated in the social literature –Poverty not the same as vulnerability but can contribute to it (or vice versa) BFP specifically interested in poverty reduction What can we say for the specific food systems we have described for the IGP?

20. Poverty vs vulnerability in IGP food systems FS parameter How vulnerable to GEC? Is poverty involved in vulnerability? Is the parameter related to vul?

21. Which concept is more useful? Poverty Vulnerability