1. 1 Long-term sustainability and business issues for volcanoes, landslides, subsidence, and forest fires. Hints from the downstream projects DORIS, EVOSS, LAMPRE and PREFER Brussels - June 11, 2013 Supersites Coordination Workshop Fabrizio Ferrucci, Fausto Guzzetti & the DORIS, EVOSS, LAMPRE and PREFER teams

2. 2 The FP7 collaborative projects stimulate development of downstream GMES services “Downstream” : exploit “Core” services, be self- sustainable, address specific user segments Projects EVOSS  2010-13: volcanoes DORIS  2010-13: landslides PREFER  2012-15: wildfires/forest fires LAMPRE  2013-15: landslides

3. 3 EVOSS – European Volcano Observatory Space Services Total cost is € 4.2 M, EC contribution is € 2.8 M Lifetime is from 1 Jan 2010 to 30 Jun 2013 where are the costs Development Research Data Service (high-temporal resolution) Service (high-spatial resolution)

4. 4 DORIS – Ground Deformations Risk Scenarios: an Advanced Assessment Service Total cost is € 4.6M, EC contribution is € 3.4M. Lifetime is from 1 Oct 2010 to 30 Sep 2013. where are the costs Development Research Data (high-spatial resolution) Service (with a minimum number of sites within an assigned frame); otherwise 

5. 5 LAMPRE – Landslide modelling and tools for vulnerability assessment preparedness and recovery management Total cost is € 2.5M, EC contribution is € 2.0M Lifetime is from 1 Mar 2013 to 28 Feb 2015

6. 6 PREFER – space-based information support for prevention and recovery of forest fires emergency in the mediterranean area. Total cost is € 2.8M, EC contribution is € 1.9M Lifetime is from 1 Dec 2012 to 30 Nov 2015 where are the costs Development Research Data Service (high-spatial resolution)

7. 7 EVOSS Countries, civil protection authorities, Communities who don’t have an observatory but feel/are exposed to volcanic risk. Mandated Institutions, Observatories wanting to improve the extent of monitored parametres, all Institutions “in case of” Airline companies, planning and managing routing, and deciding whether or not to fly across an area where a SIGMET is released by the VAAC

8. 8 DORIS Civil Protection Authorities responsible for landslide and subsidence risk. Environmental agencies dealing with slope processes & ground subsidence phenomena. LAMPRE CPA responsible for landslide risk. EA dealing with slope processes & risk. Transportation agencies & service providers.

9. 9 PREFER Institutions and Entities responsible for the strategic management of land vs. forest fires, and forest fire preparedness

10. 10 DORIS LAMPRE EVOSS PREFER

11. 11 EVOSS – satellite real time synoptical monitoring of volcanoes at global scale DORIS – Long term deformation maps and time series & multi-sensors analysis LAMPRE – Accurate event inventory maps & vulnerability assessments PREFER – spaceborne high-resolution mapping of fire hazard / damage

12. 12 EVOSS – SO2 emissions monitoring DORIS – DInSAR maps for ground surface monitoring LAMPRE – Landslide inventory maps & image processing techniques PREFER – a part of image processing techniques, and indexing

13. 13 Global reach is the undisputed advantage of space borne Remote Sensing. Excluding military demand, the meteorological system is the sole example of need-driven remote- sensing.

14. 14 Observation: Everywhere, Anytime Information: Robust, Accessible, Accurate Price: Attractive, Sustainable

15. 15 Both in the case of EVOSS and DORIS, an extensive market survey and analysis has been carried out in the last two years in order to address their sustainability. All the different User communities have been involved, both in the private and institutional sector. A main outcome is that there is an actual need mainly in the institutional sector, but usually where is the need there are no resources available. Therefore, the sustainability of operational and validated services such as EVOSS and DORIS must be supported further on by EC institutions Extensive market survey and analysis was carried out to address their sustainability. All user communities were involved, in the private and the institutional sectors.

16. 16 Main need is in the institutional sector, but usually where is the need there resources are not available. Sustainability of operational and validated services such as EVOSS and DORIS should be supported further by the EU.

17. 17 As the “market” is basically Institutional, what is missing & needed: Institutional support following extensive validation of the results of successful projects

18. 18 Grant Agreement n. 242212 – www.DORIS-PROJECT.eu Main UsersSecondary Users Civil Protection Capacity Extraction Industry Structural Engineering Risk Assessment Government Agencies Public Authorities Regulators Mineral Oil & Gas Builders & Constructors Engineering consultants Utility Operators Transport Provides Industrial Infrastructures Developers & home owners Information providers Insurers Environment & Heritage Media Water

19. 19 Grant Agreement n. 242212 – www.DORIS-PROJECT.eu Main EO markets concerned with landslide risk assessment & hazard mapping: Disaster management (9%) Environmental monitoring (9%) Engineering (22%) Others (60%) World Share EO Segments, 2012

20. 20 Grant Agreement n. 242212 – www.DORIS-PROJECT.eu Main EO markets concerned with landslide risk assessment & hazard mapping: Disaster management (6 M€) Environmental monitoring (6 M€) Engineering (17 M€) European Market Relevant EO Segments, 2012

21. 21 Main Users Secondary Users VAACs Volcano Observatories Other Users Aviation Stakeholders Civil Protection ICAO EC Local Authorities Industry / Institutions Main User communities are: Aviation Industry to support Ash Advisory Volcano Observatories to provide complementary means

22. 22

23. Lack of certification in EO industry hampers increase market share [Promotion & dissemination]. Lack of benchmark on EO value adding processing & lack of metrics to judge the quality of products [Demonstration & Standards].

24. Operational costs are man power related rather than EO data costs. The availability of Sentinel free access policy will lower costs. Need to confirm whether Sentinel data can replace commercially available data (i.e., CSK, TSX). A rigorous quality / achievement assessment of projects to be carried out The EC support and ethical guidance to exploit worldwide the top achievements of best Space projects is welcome

25. 25 Grant Agreement n. 242212 – www.DORIS-PROJECT.eu Consolidation of service requests is a benefit of DORIS, allowing to divide the costs among users. To be relevant, service shall expand in and outside of Europe. Need to educate users and ensure adoption of services in existing and new processes.

26. 26 Thank you! Ferrucci@ipgp.fr Guzzetti@irpi.cnr.it