1. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 1 The National Earth System Prediction Capability Partnership built upon National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) and Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research David McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Daniel Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service Aug 4, 2015

2. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 2 Interagency Effort: Result of Community and Agency Calls to Action An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty- First Century (Shapiro et al. 2010) Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (Brunet et al. 2010) Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (Weller, 2010) A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling (NRC Press, 2012) Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navy’s Roadmap for the Arctic (Titley and St. John, 2009) The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction are not Achieving their Potential (Mass, 2006)

3. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 3 Scientific rationale: same documents call for Holistic approach – Obs, models, DA, HPC Seamless weather-to-climate systems, including uncertainty Multi-model ensembles Improve representation of processes, esp. convection Air-ocean-land-ice coupling Exploit sources of predictability in system – MJO, ENSO, Arctic ice, monsoon variability Common shared software infrastructure

4. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 4 Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation Spanning Weather and Climate Decision Time Scales/Requirements Need for “Seamless” (Internally Consistent) Forecasts Agriculture Rivers, snow: hydrologic management Arctic ice ship routing FEMA: Preposition emergency supplies Transportation, coastal infrastructure and planning Public safety: Hazardous weather watches, warnings Energy planning Politically destabilizing events DOD planning Aviation weather DOD operations Ship routing Drought, flooding, heat, cold extremes Hum. assistance 6,7,8 days: planning for evac/sortie 5 days: USN ship sortie 4 days: state/local emerg. evacuation

5. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 5 National ESPC Partnership incorporates existing NUOPC effort Goal: a more accurate, longer range, global ocean and atmosphere forecast system for decision support “Extended” Synoptic Range – Increased accuracy for lead times of 1-32 days – Accurate Arctic forecasts at multiple lead times. – Integrated, coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land and upper atmosphere global prediction system with improved forecast skill over the current operational suite Longer Range: – Ensemble prediction to 90 days – Inter-agency multi-model sub-seasonal, seasonal, intra- annual, sub-decadal to decadal outlooks of global weather and ocean conditions Need: more computationally efficient environmental prediction codes optimized for emerging architectures A coordination activity to develop/implement a common or coordinated prediction technology through an affiliation of existing Programs, Projects, Laboratories, Centers Partnership of federal environmental research and environmental operational guidance agencies Meet needs of user community through existing/planned agency operational numerical prediction capabilities through coordinated R&D and operations Waves Land Ice Aerosol Atmosphere Ocean

6. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 6 Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O Ensembles Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days) Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA), Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC: 5-16 days) Multi-model ensembles improve medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events Leverage multi-agency resources and missions Extending to 30 days (poss. 45 days) Increase resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015 Incorporates Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF) N. Am. Multi-model Ensemble* (NMME: 1-9 months) Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada) Skill improves with spatial resolution - All run at sub-optimal but best affordable resolution. Leverage Existing Capabilities: Collaborative Programs Across Scales *CPO, CTB funding

7. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 7 NUOPC as a transition and operational implementation coordinator History managing inter-agency topic-driven committees – Common Model Architecture – Physics Interoperability – Unified Ensemble Operations – Coupled Global Modeling (new) – Integrated Modeling Systems (new) Common Model Architecture: ESMF v.6 (incl NUOPC layer) released Unified Operational Ensemble – 60-member ensemble plus 3 controls (NWS, CMC, Navy) – Common bias correction method – 1° resolution output, going to.5° in Sep 2015 – 80 fields exchanged at 1°, becoming 91 fields at.5° – 16d extent with 6-hourly output going to 32d when ready – Raw and bias-corrected fields and products available – WWIII ensemble based on 63-member ensemble – Atmosphere-only, including ocean/sea ice/waves in 2018

8. A Common Model Architecture for Integrated Whole Earth Modeling The Earth system modeling community is converging on a common modeling architecture Atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land, wave, and other models are ESMF components called by a top-level driver/coupler Many models are componentizing further Navy Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System / Wavewatch III Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – CICE Sea Ice NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) NOAA GFDL MOM4 Ocean Model NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model NCAR Community Earth System Model Weather Research and Forecast Model HAF Kinematic Solar Wind-GAIM Ionosphere pWASH123 Watershed-ADCIRC Storm Surge Model Features and Benefits: Interoperability promotes cross-agency knowledge transfer and collaboration Portable, fast, fully featured toolkits enhance capability Cost savings from code reuse Automatic compliance checking for ease of adoption ESMF-enabled systems include: A Common Model Architecture

9. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 9 NUOPC Layer Merger of NASA, NOAA NEMS, NRL ESMF infrastructure – Defines conventions for implementing the Earth System Modeling Framework; compatibility-tested – Infrastructure for modelers to share common utility code, e.g. grid remapping – Implements a component-based software architecture with four basic building blocks: Driver, Model, Mediator, and Connector. Arrange in different ways to implement various model architectures: simple connections, component hierarchies, ensemble systems

10. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 10 LEGEND Compliant (Completion date) In progress Candidate Coupled Modeling Systems NEMS and CFS COAMPS, COAMPS- TC NavGEM- HYCOM- CICE GEOS-5ModelECESM Driver 2015 Atmosphere Models GFS/GSM NMMB 2015 CAM FIM2015 GEOS-5 FV 2015 ModelE Atm COAMPS Atm NavGEM Neptune WRF Ocean Models MOM 2016 HYCOM 2015 NCOM MPAS-O POP POM2015 Sea Ice Models CICE 2015 KISS 2015 Ocean Wave Models WW32015 SWAN DeLuca et al. 2015 (brief) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) ESPS is a collection of NUOPC- compliant Earth system component and model codes – interoperable, documented, available for integration/use Implementation is part of NOPP project awarded under ESPC – “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models” ESPS interfaces are based on ESMF and the NUOPC Layer ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave): http://www.earthsystemcog.org/pr ojects/esps/

11. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 11 Research Challenges Advance understanding, representation of key processes – Multi-scale tropical convection and its two-way interaction with global circulation – Arctic processes: freeze-thaw, ice mobility; atmosphere BL and ocean modeling – Blocking processes – Atmosphere, land, hydrology, ocean, and cryosphere coupling; teleconnection processes between Arctic, temperate, and tropical regions Model technology: – Data assimilation (including coupled DA) and ensemble generation techniques – Model component characterization of internal processes, coupling between components, and interactions – Physical process-based metrics for model accuracy characterization as well as product guidance – Ensemble numerical post-processing techniques Assessments of uncertainty Member management (clumping, distributions) Ensemble design across time scales: model membership, update cycles, initialization strategies etc. Product generation to express perception of predictions as well as uncertainty (social science) HPC utilization – Exploit advanced architectures

12. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 12 NOAA ESPC-Related Programs Leverage existing efforts across scales, coordinate with interagency efforts Short Range Hurricane Ensembles Mid-range global ensembles (NUOPC) - Operational Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Extended Weather Range: 30 – 45 day weather ensembles Week 3 and 4 Initiative (Presidents Budget) Longer Range: NMME sub-seasonal project 0-45 days in development NMME Phase-II Ensemble prediction Inter-agency multi-model sub-seasonal, seasonal, and intra-annual outlooks of global weather and ocean conditions NOAA HPC supports ONR-funded NOPP project on advanced architectures NOAA prediction R&D Data assimilation, model improvement, post-processing projects Process-improvement projects (ice formation/melt, stratus and convection processes, ocean mixing and module coupling

13. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 13 NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) An unprecedented MME system to improve intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) operational predictions based on the leading US and Canada climate models. NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a CTB research project supported by CPO/MAPP Program in FY11. NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental seasonal prediction system as a FY12-13 MAPP/CTB project with contributions from NSF, DOE, NASA and NOAA Sandy Supplemental Fund. Ended July 2014 Extended to July 2015 NOAA is planning to operate NMME Phase-II to both support its seasonal forecasts and its research activities. OrganizationsModels NOAA/NCEPCFSv2 NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 FLOR (March 2014) NASA/GMAOGEOS5 Environment Canada CMC1-CanCM3 CMC2-CanCM4 NCAR CCSM3.0 CCSM4.0 (July 2014) NCARCESM1.0 (Jan 2015) *new/upgraded models NMME-Phase II Forecast Providers Courtesy of Huang (NCEP), Mariotti (CPO), Gross (GFDL)

14. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 14 Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System/NMME Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System/NUOPC Regional Hurricane Spanning Weather and Climate Global Dust Fire Wx Vision: Multi-model ensemble system across scales Climate Forecast System

15. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 15 Questions?

16. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 16 Supplemental Information

17. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 17 FY14FY18FY21FY22FY23FY19FY20FY16FY17FY15 National ESPC Atmospheric Model Roadmap GFS SL/SI T1524L64 Hybrid Ensemble DA Navy DSRC OPS FLOPS NAVGEM 1.3 T425L60 (31km) Common Physics Driver NAVGEM 1.4 T639L70 (21km) 400 TFLOPS1000 TFLOPS3000 TFLOPS DYCOR Core Down-select Coupled Model DA Hybrid EnKF-4DVar Operational DYCOR Coupled System Hybrid EnKF-4DVar 17 Non-Hydro GFS DYCOR Core Select Coupled NAVGEM T1025100 NOAA OPS FLOPS xxx TFLOPS Coupled NAVGEM Ensemble NEXGEN Dynamic Core DYCOR Coupled Ensemble NAVGEM 2.0 T681L80 (19km) Coupled Model DA Hybrid EnKF-4DVar