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Nothing below this point 2.68 1.57 1.97 Subtitle 2.64 2.99 Nothing below this point 0.22 4.77 Development.

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Presentation on theme: "Nothing below this point 2.68 1.57 1.97 Subtitle 2.64 2.99 Nothing below this point 0.22 4.77 Development."— Presentation transcript:

1 Nothing below this point Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.57 Guide @ 1.97 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.99 Nothing below this point Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.77 Development of Coal and Power Sector Harsh Agrawal February 2011 Investor Perspectives

2 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 2 Large Capacity Additions Planned in Power Generation Capacity Announcements by the Private Sector MW Installed Capacity at March 2010 Source:CEA, Infraline, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research; e= Morgan Stanley Research estimates Experienced GeneratorsCompanies Associated with the Power SectorCompanies Unrelated to Power Sector / Unawarded Projects Capacity Addition Announcements Between F2011e–17e Potential Installed Capacity at March 2017e Centre State Private Centre State Private Centre State Private += ~81 GW in Additions by FY2015, Led Primarily by Private Sector

3 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 3 High Dependence on Domestic Coal to Meet Targets Coal Dominates the Thermal CategorySignificant Capacities Dependant on Domestic Linkages and Coal Blocks Lignite Gas Coal Domestic - Linkage Domestic - Captive Blocks Imported Domestic + Imported Fuel Linkage not tied up Source:CEA, Infraline, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research % of Total Thermal Capacity Additions between FY 2011E and FY 2017E (118GW of Thermal Capacity)

4 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 4 Captive Mine Production Till Date CILCaptiveSCCL Captive Mine Production Relative to CIL, SCCL Production Source:Infraline, Company Websites, Industry Sources MnT Production Dominated by CIL, Coal Block Production Needs to Ramp Up to Meet Demand

5 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 5 Captive Coal Block Status Award DateAllocatedOperational <20033923 200441 2005222 2006520 2007520 2008240 2009210 201010 Total21526 Source:Minutes of Review Meeting held on 20 th and 21 st July 2010 under the Chairmanship of Additional Secretary (Coal) to review progress of captive blocks and associated End Use Projects

6 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 6 Details of operating blocks Captive Coal Block Status Sl. NoName of Allocattee / JVAllotment yearName of coal blocksNo. of blocksProduction yearTime taken 1CESC Ltd./ICML1993Sarshatali120029 2INDAL/ HINDALCO1994Talabira120039 3WBSEB/BECML1996Tara (East)119971 4WBPDCL/BECML1996Tara (West)119971 5BLA Industries1996Gotitoria (E&W)220048 6Monnet Ispat Ltd.1996Gare Palma IV/5120048 7JSPL Ltd.1996Gare Palma IV/1119993 8Steel Authority of India1996Tasra1200913 9Jindal Power Ltd.1998GarePalma IV/2&3220079 10Jayaswal Neco Ltd.1999Gare Palma IV/4120067 11RASL now SEML2000Gare Palma IV/7120099 12PSEB2001Panchwara Central120065 13Prakash Industries Ltd.2003Chotia120063 14Arunachal PMDCL2003Namchik Namphuk120074 15KPCL2003Baranj IV, Kiloni and Manora Deep620085 16Usha Martin Ltd.2003Kathautia120085 17WBPDCL/BECML2003Barjora120096 Source:Minutes of Review Meeting held on 20th and 21st July 2010 under the Chairmanship of Additional Secretary (Coal) to review progress of captive blocks and associated End Use Projects, Company Websites, Industry Sources

7 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 7 Issues Faced in Development of Captive Mines Source:KPMG, Infraline, Industry Sources Core Issues faced by Captive Mine Developers Clearance hurdles: Grant of prospecting license, approval of mining plan, land acquisition etc. time-consuming Infrastructure bottlenecks: Blocks in remote areas require development of transport infrastructure at extra cost Land acquisition issues: Availability of land records, tribal and forested land, R&R procedures add to acquisition delays Local issues: 90% of coal reserves in India are in 4 states which have been affected by Naxalism Financing limitations: Uncertainty of cash flows, aggravated by the issues listed above, lead to lender discomfort Coal block allotment Purch ase of geolo gical report Mini ng leas e app licat ion to Stat e Gov t. Mining plan prepar ation and approv al Envir on- ment al cleara nce Forest Clearanc e Land Acquisit ion Producti on 28 months 24 months12-18 months Normative timelines issued by MoC indicate that production may start ~72 months from allotment Potential for substantial delay Of the 24 operational blocks, the time to become operational has ranged from 3 to 9 years

8 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 8 Analysts Predicting Growing Deficits Over Time Deficit Predictions of 300 – 400 MM Tonnes by FY 2017 Analyst 1 Source:CEA, Infraline, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Projected Thermal Coal deficit; MM Tonnes Analyst 2 Projected Total Coal Deficit; MM Tonnes Source:Credit Suisse Estimates

9 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 9 However, Constrained Port Handling Capacity Imported Coal Volumes to be Affected due to Capacity Constraints Majors Ports Running at Very High Utilisation Total Traffic (mtpa)% Source Indian Ports Association Total Coal Handling Capacity Needed at Ports mtpa Source Credit Suisse Estimates

10 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 2.68 Guide @ 1.64 Guide @ 1.95 Subtitle Guide @ 2.64 Guide @ 2.80 Only Source / Footnotes below this line Guide @ 0.22 Guide @ 4.69 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/7/2014 10 Increasing Investments and the Way Forward Policy changes to increase coal production – Allowing for coal block auctions – Third party sales from captive blocks Streamlining clearance procedure for coal blocks – Shortening of development timeline critical – Forest and environment clearance obtained before allocation – Land acquisition substantially complete – R&R issues analyzed before allocation Strengthening inland transportation and port handling capacity – Increasing rail capacity and reduction in transportation time – Enhanced port handling capacity


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