1. CLIMATE CHANGE IS DUE TO OCEAN VARIATIONS – NOT CO 2 William M. Gray Department of Atmospheric Science July 2014

2. There is no scientific justification for the CO 2 global warming hypothesis.

3. FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE STUDY (1979) (The Charney Report) Doubling CO 2 will lead to global ∆T of 1.5-4.5 ° C (~3 ° C) Due to positive water-vapor feedback ∆T ∆ moisture reduced global OLR (IR) ∆CO 2 RH const. 1°C 2°C = 3°C WARMING - grossly unrealistic

5. REALITY GCMs IR 0 0 AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP CONVECTION INCREASE ENHANCED SUPPRESSED

6. 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 PRESSURE (mb) 10 0.5 q s 10 2 q s 10 5 q s 10x5 50 10x2 20 10x.5 5 30 x 8 Rain 165 Cb RH = 75/240 = 31% Rain Eff. = 165/240 = 69% 75 vapor subsidence 8 q s Net 240 Condensation More IR 14 - 12 - 11 - 10 - ALTITUDE (km) 1/4 1/16 10 km UPPER TROPOSPHERE

7. Lapse-Rate 191 198 198 Wm -2 water- vapor T = 243 o K T = 241 o K ht 241 o 243 o 24 IR 0.2 g/cm 2 191 Wm -2 0.2 g/cm 2 IR DRY WET COLDWARM Wm -2 Temp. HOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS UPPER MOISTURE CONTROLS THE EMISSION LEVEL AND IR FLUX TO SPACE Moist Dry MORE LESS

8. 0 Vertical Motion (ω) GRID SPACE – ω– ω – ωωdωd – ω u IR = 2 RH = High IR = 4 RH = 60% RH = 100% GCM grid ω Sub-grid up & down motion concentration MOIST DRYER

9. ΔqΔqΔRH Change in specific humidity (%)Change in relative humidity (%) Pressure (hPa) HANSEN – early model + 6%+ 50% Changes for a doubling of CO 2 WAY TOO MUCH VAPOR

10. Top of Atmos. Sfc. 2 X CO 2 Restriction Sen. Heat 0.5 Evap. 2.5 IR 0.7 3.7 Equilibrium Response 3.7 Double CO 2 = 3.7 3.7 IR 3.7 ΔT = 0.2-0.3°C3% ↑ 342 Solar 342 IR + Albedo

11. GCMs Projected Reality Net Global Warming Direct CO 2 Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback Warming Net Global Warming Direct CO 2 Warming w/Rainfall ∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative Feedback 1oC1oC 2oC2oC 3oC3oC 0.5 o C -0.2 o C 0.3 o C DOUBLING CO 2 SURFACE VALUES

12. DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES FROM SALINITY VARIATIONS

13. S. PoleN. Pole Ocean Mean +3 o C CURRENT Poles and Ocean Cold mixing S. PoleN. Pole CRETACEOUS PERIOD Poles and Ocean Warm mixing Ocean Mean +17 o C

14. THC (or AMO) STRONG THC (or AMO) WEAK

15. 12 3 H H Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

16. SAS THC

17. ~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = -25 ~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = -35 ~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = -15 -25 -35 - 15 Mixed Layer Thermocline Mixed Layer SPNP SPNP SPNP MEAN ∆E = 0 ∆E = - 10 ∆E = + 10 THC STRONG THC WEAK COOLING + More Rain more upwelling WARMING - Less Rain less upwelling Steady State 1510 15 5 20 10

18. MORE UPWELLING COOLING LESS UPWELLING COOLING More Rain Less Rain GLOBAL COOLING GLOBAL WARMING

19. extrapolated

20. 1998188019101940 19752030 Multi-Century Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century Multi-Century TEMP 0 THC ? mean neg. ? Multi-century + decadal THC+ THC-

21. 19 TH Century20 TH Century Globe CoolerGlobe Warmer

22. 21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996) FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 25- 30 YEARS William M. Gray (written in 1996) We expect that these changing Ocean (or MOC) patterns will lead to a small global surface temperature cooling. The mean global surface temperature change in the next 20-30 years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences and be one of weak cooling, not warming.

23. The Ocean, not CO 2 increase is the primary driver for climate change. CO 2 increases are beneficial. Climate research must become free of political domination.

24. Wm. M. Gray climate change papers for Heartland Conferences: ICCC3 – 2009 (NY) ICCC4 – 2010 (NY) ICCC7 – 2012 (Chicago) ICCC9- 2014 (Las Vegas) http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/