1. Towards a New Social Contract Environment and Conservation Association Gala Dinner 27 March 2009 Dr. Anthony Turton Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd dr.anthony.turton@gmail.com www.anthonyturton.com © AR Turton, 2009 Images © National Geographic

2. Layout of Presentation Does SA need to grow its economy? What are the current natural resource constraints? Our management problem is... Towards a New Social Contract... Conclusion

3. Does SA need to grow the economy? Yes..... The hope of a generation of disenfranchised citizens culminated in the promise of democracy. That promise has largely failed.... Revolution of rising expectations. If the demands of society exceed the capacity of the state to deliver, then anger is possible.

4. What are the current natural resource constraints? Energy... Water... Our energy constraint is defined by water. The sulphur cycle is of particular importance – but is not debated / studied. In a future scenario where we burn more coal, but possibly with less precipitation, what will happen to rainfall? Acidification is our energy limitation...

5. SA’s Water Situation Source: Peter Ashton SA has a water constrained economy In 2004 we had allocated 98% of the national water resource at a high assurance of supply The significance is that SA has generally lost its dilution capacity Propelling water quality management to a national strategic priority With linkages to energy, food security and human health

6. Years 19651975198519952005201520252035 20 40 80 60 Water Demand (10 9 m 3 yr 1 )(billion m³/yr¹) Highest water use estimate Lowest water use estimate Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology) Total surface resources (existing technology) Q x F = YQ = volume of water available at national level at a high assurance of supply Y = volume of water needed at national level at a high assurance of supply to sustain the economy F = Flux value of water If Flux value of water = 1.7 38 x 1.7 = 64.6 Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (200:19)

7. Our Management Problem is... Water is a flux, but we manage it as if it were a stock. If we can recycle our national resource once, then we double the national stock. The management objective should be to get the F value > 1 and ideally = 2. Return flow management is so bad that the Flux value is currently about.8 38 x.8 = 30.4 (This is our problem).

8. However... Beware of unintended consequences... EDC’s Partially metabolized medication Microcystin We can never forget about our historic legacy... The Externalization of Costs as a legacy issue

9. Microcystin Contamination Death caused by Cyanobacteria bloom partially arising as a result of attempts to neutralize acidic water (AMD) from the coal mining industry. This means that environmental remediation for AMD is not as simple as we thought it would be. Microcystin Benchmark Finland’s worst case is +- 10 ug/l USA’s worst case is +- 60 ug/l RSA is currently at 10,000 ug/l The biochemistry of Microcystin was described in 1985 – it is chemically similar to Rinkhals venom – but no significant public domain research is being done on the linkage between chronic exposure and human health This is a looming national crisis of note!

10. Externalization of Costs Model Value Time Dev Cost Revenue V1 V2 Profit Mine Closure T1 Remediation Cost Magnitude at Closure T2 Externalized Costs © Adler et al., 2007 Balance Sheet Items Off-Balance Sheet Items

11. Our National Dilemma is... We either increase the value of Q... Or we lower our economic growth aspirations... (decrease the value of Y) Or we increase the value of F... This is technology and capital intensive, so we need to reinvent relationships between public and private sectors & environment In short we need a new social contract between water, energy and people.

12. A New Social Contract? Management of return flow is now VITAL Increase the F value to the target of 1.7 by 2035 if we accept a low growth scenario. Vigorous public debate about the Energy – Water – Food Security – Climate Change – Human Health nexus.... Historic legacy issues HAVE to be dealt with... Corporations as Social Entrepreneurs

13. Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibi a Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 25 0 50 0 0 Kilometres N Rovuma South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000) Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa © P Ashton Clearly what we did in the past to manage our water scarcity constraints to development cannot be extrapolated into the future – we can no longer use today’s science based on yesterday’s experiences to solve tomorrow’s problems.

14. A Key Element of the New Social Contract... Acid mine drainage... Estimated decant from Wits goldfields is in order of 345 Mpd (exact value unknown) Current decant from Harmony = ±35 Mpd Rest will happen in the next decade It is radioactive, toxic and highly acidic It is an emotive issue... When we solve AMD we can use mine voids for strategic storage... So it is vital

15. Conclusion Water quality management will need a new strategic paradigm if we are to grow our economy. National Water Quality Science, Technology and Policy Support Program –National Council of Provinces has already accepted this Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76) Clever companies will re-invent themselves and base their future viability on a New Social Contract

16. Thank You Q x F = Y F = 1.7 by 2035