1. The Employment Strategy and the Lisbon Agenda - The way towards more and better jobs? -
Luc Tholoniat
European Commission -
DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities

2. The EES and the Lisbon Agenda
The EES: a complement to other EU instruments (annual guidelines, recommendations and action plans since 1997)
A key pillar of the Lisbon Agenda since 2000
2002 impact evaluation and 2003 "Kok report"
2005: Mid-term review of the Lisbon Agenda

3. Main lessons since 1997
observed progress stopped in 2001/2002
some evidence of structural "improvements"
impact on national policies: focus on employment growth; move towards an active and preventive approach; role of human capital; quality and productivity at work; gender equality; employment-friendly reforms of tax/benefits; role of public employment services; use of indicators and targets; monitoring and evaluation; etc.
 … but no room for complacency

4. Necessary path to the 2010 target

6. GDP, employment and labour productivity growth
EU15 US
1. GDP
1.5
3.3
3.2
4.1
1.0
2.5
2.0
2. Employment
-0.4
1.6
1.9
2.1
0.4
-0.5
0.6
1.2
3. Labour productivity (31-2)
1.7
1.3
2.9
1.4
4. Hours worked per employed (a)
-0.3
0.3
-0.6
0.5
5. Hourly labour productivity (53-4)
2.2
1.1
1.8
Sources: DG‑ECFIN's Ameco database and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC).
a) GGDC data are used to calculate average annual hours worked per employee.

7. Is the labour market the main culprit?
Why a decline in labour productivity growth compared to the US? - slowdown in business investment growth - deterioration in total factor productivity growth
What hampers economic growth in the EU? - domestic demand - global imbalances
 more and better jobs: not just a labour market issue

9. Overall employment rates (cont.)
Pace of progress
since
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low
Close to average
High
> 70 DK
SE, UK NL
65-70
AT, CY, DE, PT
FI, IE
< 65
CZ, EE, LT, MT, PL, SI, SK
BE, EL, FR, LU, LV
ES, HU, IT

13. Female employment rates (cont.)
Pace of progress
since
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low
Close to average
High
> 60 DK
AT, FI, PT, SE, UK
CY, NL
55-60
CZ, EE, LT, SI
DE, FR, LV IE
< 55
MT, PL, SK
BE, EL, HU
ES, IT, LU

15. Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)
Pace of progress
since
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low
Close to average
High
> 50
CY, EE
PT, SE
DK, UK
40-50 EL
CZ, ES, LT
FI, IE, LV, NL
< 40
AT, DE, PL, SI, SK
BE, IT, LU, MT
FR, HU

16. Labour productivity growth and levels
Annual growth rate of real GDP
per person ( )
GDP per person
employed in ppp in 2003 (EU25=100)
Low
Median
High
≥ 110 IT
AT, FI, BE, FR, LU, NL IE
75-110 ES
DE, DK, SE, UK
CY, EL, MT
50-75 PT
CZ, HU, PL, SI, SK
≤ 50
EE, LV, LT

17. Areas where policy response is most visible
Areas of reforms (1)
Areas where policy response is most visible
"Making work pay" (tax/benefits reforms)
Reforming public employment services
Designing and reviewing lifelong learning strategies
Facilitating business creation and development

18. Areas where policy response is mixed
Areas of reforms (2)
Areas where policy response is mixed
Ensuring employment-friendly wages and other labour costs
Promoting flexibility combined with security in the labour market, but risks of segmentation persist
Promoting childcare to increase female participation
Strengthening active labour market policies, but efforts seem insufficient with rising unemployment, esp. of young people

19. Areas where policy response is weak
Areas of reforms (3)
Areas where policy response is weak
Developing active ageing strategies
Improving the level, effectiveness and sharing of investment in human capital, including reducing early school-leaving and increasing participation in training of the low-skilled
Addressing the gender pay gap
Tackling undeclared work

20. Key challenges for the EU
The new Lisbon Agenda (1)
Key challenges for the EU
(cf. also Commission's Social Agenda of 9/2/2005)
Anticipating, triggering & absorbing economic change
Demographic trends and ageing
Diversity of performances in the enlarged EU

21. The new Lisbon Agenda (2)
Three main objectives
Make Europe a more attractive place to invest and work
Support knowledge and innovation for growth
Create more and better jobs (i.e. full employment; quality and productivity at work; social and territorial cohesion)

22. Key priorities for action
The new Lisbon Agenda (3)
Key priorities for action
attract and retain more people in employment and modernise social protection systems
improve the adaptability of workers and enterprises and the functioning of the labour market
invest more in human capital through better education and skills

23. The new Lisbon Agenda (4)
Next steps
Spring European Council (March 2005)
Integrated Guidelines Package (Broad Economic Policy Guidelines and Employment Guidelines)
National Lisbon Programmes (Autumn 2005)
EU Lisbon report (January 2006)

24. http://europa.eu.int/comm/ employment_social/index_en.htm
More information
Commission's Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities website:
employment_social/index_en.htm