1. Discussion of Resource Plans Michael Schilmoeller for the Council Power Committee Tuesday, June 9, 2009

2. 2 Overview  Comparison of least risk and least cost plans  Similarities  Differences in  Wholesale power market exposure  Power cost and rate volatility  Interpreting the resource strategy  Resource build out  Decision milestones  Choosing a plan

3. 3 Filtering Out Plans  Efficient Frontier  Finding the best plans  Discovering the successful and less unsuccessful strategies  Looking at the distributions of cost associated with plans on the efficient frontier

4. 4 Efficient Frontier Source: Analysis of Optimization Run_L811 090510 2101.xls A D

5. 5 Examining Annual Differences  Market Exposure  Cost and rate variation  Changes within a particular future

6. 6 Comparison of Average Exports for the Least-Risk and Least-Cost Plans Source: Comp.xls, worksheet “DATA (2) LR”

7. 7 Exposure to Market Imports Source: Comp.xls, workbook “Comp 02.xls”, worksheet Average

8. 8 Likelihood the Least-Risk Plan Would Reduce Market Exposure By At Least $300 M In A Hydro Quarter Source: Comp.xls, worksheet “LR-LC qtr future”

9. 9 Likelihood of Improvements

10. 10 Expected Advantage of Least Risk over Least Cost Market Purchase Expense

11. 11 Likelihood of Annual Rate Increases

12. 12 Difference in Likelihood of Annual Rate Increases

13. 13 Changes in System Cost

14. 14 Changes in System Cost

15. 15 Overview  Comparison of least risk and least cost plans  Similarities  Differences in  Wholesale power market exposure  Power cost and rate volatility  Interpreting the resource strategy  Resource build out  Decision milestones  Choosing a plan

16. 16 Plan D Source: Schedules for plan resources 090519.xls

17. 17 RPS Development

18. 18 Build Out of Resources Wind Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls”

19. 19 Build Out of Resources Geothermal Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls”

20. 20 Build Out of Resources Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbine Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls”

21. 21 Build Out of Resources Simple-Cycle Combustion Turbine Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls”

22. 22 Schedule of Decision Least-Risk Plan

23. 23 The Choice  A plan with more resources reduces dependence on the power market and increases power price and rate stability  A plan with resources provides guidance to the region regarding the resources that promote an efficient and reliable system  Very little difference exists between least- cost and least-risk plans in the five-year Action Plan time period.  The least-risk plan preserves decision milestones

24. End

25. 25 Plan A Source: Schedules for plan resources 090519.xls

26. 26 Difference in Cost Distributions 1 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR and LC”

27. 27 Difference in Cost Distributions 2 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR and LC”

28. 28 Difference in Cost Distributions 3 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR less LC”