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COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games: representation and use of EPS.

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Presentation on theme: "COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games: representation and use of EPS."— Presentation transcript:

1 COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games: representation and use of EPS products and development of COSMO-RU2-EPS E. Astakhova, D. Alferov, A.Montani, G. Rivin, I. Rozinkina

2 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 2 2 TL: A. Montani and E.Astakhova Preparation of epsgrams Visualization Operational dissemination Forecasters’ feedback Clustering+ COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014 FDPFDP COSMO- S14- EPS RDPRDP ∆x~7 km 40 ML fc+72h COSMO- RU2- EPS ∆x~2.2 km 50 ML fc+48h ARPA-SIMC RHMC ICs&BCs All 10 forecasts for Sochi-mini Probability fields for the entire domain RHMCRHMC ECMWF EPS forecasts Visualization Case studies Verification Sochi-mini Integration domain RHMCRHMC

3 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 3 Current status The time of data arrival is very stable !!! 12 UTC: 20:15-20:20 00 UTC: 8:15-8:20 Only few forecasts were not delivered From 15 May to 15 Aug 2013 : UTC12: June 10, Aug 5 UTC 00: June 27 (+ System session at ECMWF on June 5) Epsgrams are prepared and probability fields are drawn in operational mode Forecasters receive EPS products at 12 UTC: 20:20-20:30 00 UTC: 8:20-8:30 Forecasters’ feedback Ensemble products are used more actively Stations for epsgrams were chosen according to forecasters’ needs Thanks to Andrea!!

4 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 4 What’s new since GM2012 Ensemble meteograms Three types of meteograms are prepared at RHMC and sent to forecasters twice a day The box-and-whisker diagrams can be also found at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/meteogr-arpa (authorization required: login frost pass steam)http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/meteogr-arpa Elements are grouped in three plots:  T2m, Td 2m, T850  total prec, rain, snow, rh 2m  total clouds, low clouds, wind 10m, gusts 10m Since January 2013

5 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 5 Ensemble meteograms

6 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 6 Relation to FROST2014 Participating ensembles:  COSMO-S14-EPS (Italy, 10 members, 7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC ) Representative members from ECMWF EPS, COSMO model Was the first to provide ensemble forecasts Stable time of data arrival Well-represented on the W eb (probability fields+epsgrams) Delivered in time to forecasters via e-mail  GLAMEPS (Norway, 54 members, ~11km, fc+54h, 06UTC,18UTC ) ECMWF DET (1) HirEPS_S and HirEPS_K (24+2) HirLAM model with two cloud physics parameterizations AladEPS (13) ECMWF EPS (14)  NMMBEPS (USA, 7 members, ~7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC ) NMMB model, breeding  LAEF (Austria, 16 members,~11 km,fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC, interpolation to ~7km grid) –only test files Aladin model, IC:breeding-blending cycling; ensemble surface assimilation with perturbed observations

7 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 7 Relation to FROST2014: All forecasts and observations on the Web http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/multi-system-point-forecasts (authorization required)

8 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 8 Main results: The forecasts are regularly produced, processed and delivered to forecasters at fixed time The forecasters get used to probabilistic forecasts and are applying them more and more actively Open issues and plans: Archiving graphical products at the FROST site Forecasters’ training (October 2013) Verification We’re ready for the Olympics!

9 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 9 9 COSMO-RU2-EPS:Current status ICs & BCs from COSMO-S14-EPS 7km (November-April 2013) UTC 00: 8:15-8:30 UTC12: 20:15-20:30 10 COSMO-S14-EPS members --> 10 2.2km ensemble members (downscaling) No physical parameters perturbed Forecast length 48 h; output time step 1h Uses ~3 h elapsed time on 120 PEs (10*12) SGI Altix 4700 Itanium 2, 1.66 GHz, NUMALink, 1664 PEs, Peak 11 Tflops Quasi-operational runs: start at 9:30 and 21:30 UTC 12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013  The forecast is ready at ~12:30 and 00:30 UTC (~12,5 h after observation times)

10 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 10 Quasi-operational EPS run: Elapsed time 12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013 00 UTC 12 UTC date Depends on the computer load!

11 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 11 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 11 What’s new (Trial results)? Postprocessing added (using fieldextra) New case studies Ready to use VERSUS for EPS verification against AMS data Output data are re-coded, observations and forecasts are loaded The integration domain was increased: now 172x132 grid points instead of 86x66 ones The elapsed time increased by ~20% (0.5h) Some bugs were fixed Too large precipitation near the boundaries lana_qr_qs and llb_qr_qs were not turned on New Old IC&BC

12 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 12 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 12 Postprocessing: fieldextra update Since version 11.1.0: –added cosmo-ru-eps as an option for default model name in fieldextra –added Moscow as a supported originating center for ensemble postprocessing Now COSMO-RU2-EPS is fully supported in fieldextra (thanks to fieldextra team!) Output fields: –PMSL, T2m, T850 – mean and spread; –mean 3-hour sum of total precipitation; –Probabilities – like in COSMO-S14-EPS; 1-hour T2m max, T2m min and wind gusts at 10m added.

13 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 13 Case Study - 1: Precipitation 7-8 January 2013: Precipitation in Sochi region COSMO-RU2-EPS vs COSMO-S14-EPS Period (DDMM/HH UTC) 12-h prec, mm 06.01.2013 15:000,4 07.01.2013 3:005 07.01.2013 15:0012 08.01.2013 3:0012 08.01.2013 15:003 09.01.2013 3:001 09.01.2013 15:000 SYNOP data Aibga Large probabilities of precipitation sums > 10mm should be predicted from 7.01.2013/12 to 8.01.2013/00 Heavy rain started 07.01.2013 at ~12 UTC

14 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 14 Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013 00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013 7 km 2.2 km COSMO-S14-EPS COSMO-RU2-EPS Aibga Orography Better resolution, more details Is most evident for small probabilities

15 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 15 Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013 00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013 Aibga 12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013 7 km 2.2 km COSMO-S14-EPS COSMO-RU2-EPS Aibga Beginning of the event was caught well by both systems! High-resolution system adds value!

16 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 16 Probabilities of total precipitation and rain >10 mm / 12 h Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013 12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013 7 km 2.2 km Aibga COSMO-S14-EPS Total prRain COSMO-RU2-EPS Both systems differentiate between snow and rain! Snow is predicted in the mountain cluster!

17 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 17 Case Study - 2: Temperature at 2m 14-15 February 2013:Foehn in Sochi region, sudden and hardly predictable warming Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m 12.02/00-2.4 12.02/06-3.2 12.02/12-3.4 12.02/18-5 13.02/00-5.2 13.02/06-6.1 13.02/12-2.8 13.02/18-6 14.02/00-2.6 14.02/06 14.02/123 14.02/181.6 15.02/000.6 15.02/06-1.3 15.02/120.6 15.02/18-3.8 16.02/00-3.6 SYNOP data 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 12.02 00 UTC 13.02 00 UTC 14.02 00 UTC 15.02 00 UTC 16.02 00 UTC Aibga -6 -8

18 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 18 Case Study - 2: T2m Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m 12.02/007.1 12.02/065.5 12.02/126.3 12.02/185.1 13.02/004.2 13.02/064.6 13.02/1211.3 13.02/183.9 14.02/001 14.02/063.2 14.02/1213 14.02/186.2 15.02/002.4 15.02/063.7 15.02/1216.2 15.02/189.7 16.02/005.4 SYNOP data 18 16 14 12 10 8 12.02 00 UTC 13.02 00 UTC 14.02 00 UTC 15.02 00 UTC 16.02 00 UTC Krasnaya Poliana 6 4 2 0 14-15 February 2013:Foehn in Sochi region, sudden and hardly predictable warming

19 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 19 COSMO-RU2-EPS: probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C Initial time: 12 UTC 12.02.2013

20 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 20 COSMO-RU2-EPS: probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C Initial time: 00 UTC 13.02.2013 Warming time was predicted well!

21 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 21 Case Study – 3 : Wind gusts at 10m 15-16 March 2013:Strong wind gusts in Sochi region SYNOP data Above 15 m/s at 15.03/19-21 UTC and 16.03/02-03 UTC m/s

22 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 22 Case Study - 3: Wind gusts at 2m 15-16 March 2013:Strong wind gusts in Sochi region SYNOP data Above 15 m/s at 15.03/15 UTC – 16.03/00 UTC, strongest at 15.03/17-18, 20-22 UTC m/s

23 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 23 COSMO-RU2-EPS: probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec Initial time: 00 UTC 14.03.2013 Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC

24 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 24 COSMO-RU2-EPS: probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec Initial time: 12 UTC 14.03.2013 Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC Better forecast for smaller lead-times Better forecast in Sochi Problems with wind gust prediction in the mountain cluster

25 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 25 Case Studies : results Precipitation is predicted quite well (both the precipitation amounts and the moments of beginning/end). Good differentiation between rain near the shore and snow in the mountains was demonstrated. T2m is also predicted well. The system clearly indicated a warming related to the foehn event. Gusts are well predicted near the shore. There are problems with predicting wind gusts in the mountain cluster Comparisons of COSMO-RU2-EPS and COSMO- S14-EPS forecasts show that the higher resolution system adds value

26 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 26 What is next ? Quantitative verification using VERSUS Graphical output in quasioperational mode (probability maps, epsgrams) Quasioperational runs starting from mid- November Present the results at the FROST site Try to provide the results to Sochi forecasters Experiments with soil perturbations and model perturbations (COTEKINO)

27 COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal 27

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