2. A 21 ST CENTURY LOOKBACK WILL SUSTAIN A COMMUNITY’S FOCUS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. IF WE FORGET OUR PAST AND OUR PRESENT VULNERABILITIES … WE WILL BE UNPREPARED TOMORROW WHEN SIMILAR EVENTS HAPPEN AND ROB US OF OUR FUTURE

4. NOTE: THIS EXAMPLE, WHICH IS FOR EARTHQUAKES IN THE CENTRAL USA, CAN BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ANY PAST NOTABLE DISASTER CAUSING EVENT

5. FACT FOUR LARGE EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE, USA 16 DECEMBER 1811 – 7 FEBRUARY 1812

6. UPDATE YESTERDAY’S REALITY WITH TODAY’S KNOWLEDGE ADD NEW KNOWLEDGE FROM DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, ONGOING RESEARCH AND LONG- TERM MONITORING TO EXTRAPOLATIONS OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED WHEN FOUR GREAT EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL USA IN 1811-1812

7. THE GREAT EARTHQUAKES 1811 16 DECEMBER: Estimated Mw - 8.2 1812 23 JANUARY: Estimated Mw-8.1 7 FEBRUARY: Estimated Mw-8.3

8. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of five states in the Mississippi River drainage basin: Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Major demographic changes have occurred in the NMSZ since 1811 – 1812.

10. ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

13. INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

15. EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: MEMPHIS, TN

16. EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: ST LOUIS, MO

17. EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: CHICAGO, IL

18. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS

19. Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008 Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02

20. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

21. 1)Damage and loss estimates and planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in the NMSZ 2) Date and time:13 December 2008 at 2:00 pm CST

22. 3) The epicenter is located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

23.  The geography of the multi- state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides induced by earthquake ground shaking.

24.  The most notable impacts will occur in and around the Mississippi River drainage basin where the soils are unconsolidated and susceptible to liquefaction.

25.  Over 260,000 people are displaced.  Over 60,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.

26.  Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil.  Multiple fires will occur as a consequence of damage to natural gas pipelines crossing the 5-state region.

27. Utilitiy systems will be damaged with power, water, gas, and waste disposal outages occurring over a wide area.

28.  Critical infrastructure (highway structures, utility systems, power plants, dams) located throughout the region will be seriously compromised

29.  Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

30.  Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be severely impacted

31. Communication throughout the region will be seriously impacted.

32.  Over 250,000 buildings will sustain damage, and an additional 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

33. Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

34. Over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced and over 15,000 casualties.

35. Total direct economic losses in Missouri are expected to approach $40 billion.

36.  Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13)  Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8)

37.  Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15)  Fire Protection (ESF 4)

38.  Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution (ESF 7)  Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12)

39.  Hazardous Materials (ESF 10)  Evacuee Case Mgmt / Family Reunification ) (ESF 6 & 8)

40. RISK MANAGEMENT PREVENTION MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS PREDICTION AND WARNING INTERVENTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY RISK MANAGEMENT PREVENTION MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS PREDICTION AND WARNING INTERVENTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO SCENARIOS WILL IMPROVE THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS RESEARCH