1. Complex Adaptive Systems
377 NOTES UMR
3/27/2017
Complex Adaptive Systems
William W. Schoening
Boeing 1

2. What Is a Complex Adaptive Systems?
Collection of independent systems
Developers can make unilateral decisions about their own systems
Emergent behavior of the whole is the result of collaboration – explicit & implicit
Behavior adapts to the evolving context
Examples
Internet
Highway transportation
Air transportation
FCS
Boeing

3. CAS Seldom Built From Scratch
Exceptions
Internet
FCS
More common
Road and air transportation
Companies
Governments
Exceptions evolve toward less central control over time

4. Business System Transformation Eastman Kodak Consumer Segment
Picture Life Cycle for Traditional Technologies
Picture Life Cycle for Digital/Hybrid
Complex collaborative systems are the way of life in the commercial world
Use with the permission of and thanks to James C. Stoffel, Sr. VP Eastman Kodak

5. Why Are CASs of Interest?
All of our systems reside in CASs
Can ignore (at own risk) important features so long as pace of change is less than response time
NCO and need for more rapid response has made better understand of CASs essential for success

6. What Makes CASs Difficult?
Lack of centralized authority over development and evolution
Ambiguous and ever changing objectives
Continuing adaptation to external world
Far more human involvement with potentially conflicting goals
Systems can be part of multiple CASs
Even CASs developed under authority evolve in collaborations

7. Nontraditional Approaches
Adaptation of concepts from
Chaos theory
Ecology
Biology
Sociology
Psychology
Economics
Business
Politics
Modifications to sacred cows of systems engineering

8. Chaos Theory Not about being chaotic Focus Suspect focus is misguided
Nonlinear behavior
Starting conditions
Suspect focus is misguided
Well understood non-linear behavior is not a problem
Nonstandard (unexpected) behavior is a problem

9. More on Nontraditional
Diversity in ecosystems can mitigate viruses
Human behavior is psychological and sociological
Decisions by owners of component systems are often based on business decisions
CAS adaptations are often political

10. Challenging the Sacred Cows
Boundaries are in constant flux around the CAS and within the CAS
Top-down is insufficient
Bottoms-up & middle-out
Verification of CAS-level requirements of little value
What are requirements for an adaptive complex system?
Can you pin down the CAS well enough to perform verification?
Is validation replacing verification at the CAS level?
Satisfying requirements ahead of schedule and below cost may not be enough for success
Can contractors unilaterally implement features based on own understanding of the higher level CAS?

11. Some Major Questions What are the keystone systems and behaviors?
Given new operating conditions, how might a CAS adapt?
What kinds of behavior might we expect from component systems pushed into nonstandard behavior?
How will a CAS adapt and behave in nonstandard operating conditions?
How should we organize?
Are our processes adequate?

12. Some Approaches
Instead for humans to pick up what machines cannot do, balance human and machine functionality
Architect in adaptability, not just design margin
Expend more effort to understand possible futures states for CAS
Better simulations of CAS