1. The AGIR Conference - Brussels1 Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project Are we living longer and in better health? The AGIR project - WP1 N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira ENEPRI – European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes FEDEA – Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada www.enepri.org – www.fedea.es herce@fedea.es 10 th March 2005

2. The AGIR Conference - Brussels2 Structure of the presentation: 1.Population, births and mortality since 1950 2.Longevity 3.Lifecourses 4.Health and disability 5.Ageing and health 6.Concluding comments

3. The AGIR Conference - Brussels3 1. Population I

4. The AGIR Conference - Brussels4 1. Population II

5. The AGIR Conference - Brussels5 1. Births I

6. The AGIR Conference - Brussels6 1. Births II

7. The AGIR Conference - Brussels7 1. Mortality I

8. The AGIR Conference - Brussels8 1. Mortality II

9. The AGIR Conference - Brussels9 1. Mortality III

10. The AGIR Conference - Brussels10 2. Longevity I

11. The AGIR Conference - Brussels11 2. Longevity II

12. The AGIR Conference - Brussels12 2. Longevity III Jeanne Calment (1997)

13. The AGIR Conference - Brussels13 2. Longevity IV

14. The AGIR Conference - Brussels14 3. Lifecourses

15. The AGIR Conference - Brussels15 4. Health and disability I Problems with self assessed health status

16. The AGIR Conference - Brussels16 4. Health and disability II

17. The AGIR Conference - Brussels17 4. Health and disability III

18. The AGIR Conference - Brussels18 4. Health and disability IV

19. The AGIR Conference - Brussels19 4. Health and disability V

20. The AGIR Conference - Brussels20 4. Health and disability VI

21. The AGIR Conference - Brussels21 4. Health and disability VII

22. The AGIR Conference - Brussels22 4. Health and disability VIII

23. The AGIR Conference - Brussels23 5. Ageing and health I

24. The AGIR Conference - Brussels24 5. Ageing and health II Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Males at 15)

25. The AGIR Conference - Brussels25 5. Ageing and health III Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Females at 15)

26. The AGIR Conference - Brussels26 5. Ageing and health IV Two scenarios for Adjusted LEs: CRM or “Constant Relative Morbidity: It implies keeping constant the ratio of years lived in good health (or bad health or free of disability) to the number of years lived (Stable weights) CAM or “Constant Absolute Morbidity: It implies equating any gain in life expectancy (in years) to an equal number of years lived in good health (or free of disability) (Compression Hypothesis)

27. The AGIR Conference - Brussels27 5. Ageing and health V

28. The AGIR Conference - Brussels28 5. Ageing and health VI

29. The AGIR Conference - Brussels29 6. Concluding comments 1.European populations have been ageing since the first demographic transition ended before mid of XX century. The “second demographic transition” has made ageing more apparent. Survival has increased considerably and will be the leading driver of future ageing. 2.Longevity has been the result of compressed mortality rather than of extended limit to human life. Whether life endurance increases steadily, survivors ratios at extreme ages have increased manifold in last decades. 3.Lifecourses have evolved thus that number of working years is becoming closer to number of years after leaving activity. This heralds a much distorted future balance between “assets” and “liabilities”, or resources and needs of any kind (pensions, health, dependency) both at individual and aggregate levels.

30. The AGIR Conference - Brussels30 6. Concluding comments 4.Assessing health status is a puzzle. Countries compare badly and time trends are difficult to discern from either national health surveys or the ECHP. However, there is a general pattern of health (or disability) adjusted life years keeping track with gains in unadjusted life expectancies. 5.A sophisticated projection of adjusted life expectancies cannot be done on the basis of the data available. Rather what can be done is to build scenarios that do not contradict plainly observed trends. Both CRM or CAM scenarios show that as life expectancy of Europeans increases, few more years free of health or disability impairments could also be at their hand. But that is not granted.