1. DECISION MAKING Chapter 10

2. Groups Decision Making None of us alone is as smart as all of us together (Myers, 2002)  more people = more information  more people to do more work  more people means people can do what they are best at

3.  groups can discuss, process information (check for errors, etc.)  groups have standards for deciding (e.g., majority rules)  people are more likely to follow through if part of a group that decided  is not caused by any one mechanism, but by several processes Groups Decision Making

4. Why make decisions in Groups?  The effectiveness of groups as decision makers  Examples: investment groups, advisory boards, planners  Individual vs. group decision making – Majorie E. Shaw’s (1932) study of groups vs. individuals – Individuals solved fewer problems than groups

5. Type of Decisions Group effectiveness also depends has a demonstrated correct solution  Intellective Tasks (right or wrong answer – e.g., math problems ) vs. Judgmental Tasks (no correct answer – jury’s verdict)  Group members are superior in intellective tasks than judgment tasks.

6. Anatomy of Group Decision Functional Theory of Group Decision Making - Skilled decision making groups are more likely use procedures that enhance the way they gather, analyze, and weight information Phases of Decision Making - Orientation - Discussion - Decision - Implementation

7. Functional Model of Decision Making Discussion Orientation Implementation Decision Reached Decision No Decision Reached Orientation Planning the Process Defining the Problem  Orientation  Development of shared mental model  Group defines the problem  Sets strategy & goals  More time spent in this stage the greater the performance

8. Discussion Remembering Information Exchanging Information Processing Information  Remembering Information – 30 % of all comments made by group members are expressions of opinions and analysis of issues  Collective Memory – a group’s combined memory  Cross-cueing – recall of memories improved through group members’ statements  Transactive Memory – information is distributed to various members of the group

9. Discussion Remembering Information Exchanging Information Processing Information Weakness in group memory - importance of keeping records (meeting minutes)  Exchanging information: Acquiring & sharing data  Processing information: Collective review of info.

10. Deciding  Social Decision Schemes – strategy used to select a single alternative from various alternatives proposed by the group  Delegation - an individual or subgroup within the group makes the decision for the group  Statistical Aggregation – group members’ individual decision are averaged

11. Deciding  Social Decision Schemes  Voting – publicly or secret ballot – 50% rule is used primarily, however, sometimes more substantial percentages are needed for a decision to become final  Consensus (discussion to unanimity)  Random Choice – final decision is left to chance

12.  Implementation  Evaluating the decision  Adhering to the decision: Coch and French’s (1948) clothing mill study  Participation is key in decision making – if limited, hostility, turnover, & satisfaction decreases Implementation

13.  Bringing closure and learning lessons to bring to future decisions  Gather group together  Review decisions made and decision making process  Look for lessons learned  Record them Post-Mortem Discussions

14.  Vroom’s Normative Model of Decision Making: theory of decision making that predicts the effectiveness of decisional procedures across a number of group settings  Autocratic I & II – leader solves the problem on his/her own with information available at the time or obtains information from group members and then decides  Consultative I & II – leader either shares the problem with selected group members or the entire group Individual vs. Group Decision Making

15.  Vroom’s Normative Model of Decision Making:  Group – the leader discusses the problem with the members of the group. Together the leader and members devise options for a solution.  The leader acts as a chairperson of a committee & does not try to influence the group to adopt a certain a certain solution.  Procedure must fit the problem to be solved and the decision to be made Individual vs. Group Decision Making

16. Group Discussion Pitfalls  Group discussion pitfalls  Information processing limitations: leveling, assimilation, sharpening  Poor communication skills  Decisional avoidance (procrastination, bolstering, avoiding responsibility, ignoring alternatives, satisficing)

17.  Is the tendency for groups to spend more time discussing information that all members know and less time examining information that only a few members now  Oversampling shared information leads to poorer decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by considering the unshared information more closely.  Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease (using a Group Decision Support System) the bias  Judgment errors and heuristic biases  Sins of omission and commission  Sins of imprecision: Heuristics Shared Information Bias

18.  Judgment errors and heuristic biases – individual’s judgments are often distorted by cognitive and motivational biases  Individuals also overestimate their judgmental accuracy because they remember all of the times their decisions were confirmed  Sins of omission – overlook useful information  Sins of commission – information misused  Heuristics – mental rules of thumb  Sins of imprecision – oversimplify decision  Confirmation Bias – tendency to seek out information that confirms one’s inferences rather than disconfirms them Cognitive Limitations

19. Group Polarization  Group Polarization – the tendency to respond in a more extreme way when making a choice as part of a group, as opposed to when responding individually  Social comparison theory  Persuasive-arguments theory  “Risk-supported wins” social decision scheme

20. Group Polarization: A shift in the direction of greater extremity in individuals' responses Polarization and Risk

21. What is Groupthink?  Janis’s theory of groupthink – a distorted style of thinking that renders group members incapable of making rational decisions.  Members try very hard to agree with one another that they make mistakes that could easily be avoided  Example: Kennedy’s advisory group planning the Bay of Pigs “covert op”  The theory identifies symptoms, causes, and possible cures

22. Symptoms of Groupthink  Overestimation of the group (illusions of invulnerability, illusions of morality)  Close-mindedness (rationalizations, stereotypes about the outgroup)  Pressures toward uniformity (self-censorship, the illusion of unanimity, direct pressure on dissenters, self-appointed mindguards).  Pluralistic ignorance and the Abilene Paradox (Harvey, 1988)  Entrapment and sunk costs  Defective decision-making processes

23. Causes

24. Causes of Groupthink  Cohesiveness  Cordial relationships  Lack of conflict  Structural Faults  Insulation  Control of the leader  Provocative Situational Context  How members deal with stress  Exaggerate the positive and minimize the negative

25. Can Groupthink Be Prevented?  Limiting premature seeking of concurrence  Open style of leadership  Devil’s advocate, subgroup discussions  Correcting misperceptions and biases  Using effective decision-making techniques