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Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director.

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Presentation on theme: "Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date

3 Summary Statistics Winning Nominees MeanMinimumMaximu m MedianStandard Deviation Revenue 24243846116894615805056171 185472335188485606 Budget47569153415800026800000 0 3630000046985166 Running Time 144.599321913333.34 Days released before ceremony 170.466840912995.65

4 MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue18167119 7 1471900721388500 00 9236126827418963 6 Budget39212831244000017550000 0 2889300034417879 Running Time 131.988419412823.88 Days released before ceremony 187.3457444135.5113.86 Losing Nominees Summary Statistics

5 95% Confidence. H0H0 H1H1 P Value Days from Ceremony μ w -μ L =0μ w -μ L <0.1880 Does a closer release date indicate a higher chance of winning? T-Test

6 VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept-0.0540788190.84446358 Adjusted Revenue1.35159E-100.393175424 Adjusted Budget-8.61494E-100.476716168 Days from release to award-0.0001114170.753687073 Running Time0.0041665880.023103215 Experienced Director-0.2035953730.00943012 Comedy-0.1164114560.390173456 Drama-0.1134573940.251954524 Thriller-0.2476098640.048548348 True Story-0.121307570.184288749 Original-0.0505867490.541565801 Major Studio0.0667142240.401458856 R-Squared.143 Significance F0.034 n143

7 Ŷ= 1.35E -10 x 1 -8.62E -10 x 2 -1.1E - 4 x 3 +0.0042x 4 -0.20x 5 -0.12x 6 - 0.114x 7 -0.25x 8 -0.12x 9 - 0.05x 10 +.067x 11 Our Equation X 1 =Adjusted Revenue x 2 =Adjusted Budget X 3 = Release Date X 4 = Running Time X 5 = Director Experience X 6 =Comedy X 7 = Drama X 8 = Thriller X 9 = True StoryX 10 = Original X 11 = Major Studio

8 Film Lost in Translation Master and Commander Mystic River Seabiscuit The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ŷ.312678 0.299045 0.167013 0.447025 0.664269

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11 Film Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Frost/Nixon Milk The Reader ŷ 0.448771 0.527424 0.117674 0.116869 0.242687

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14 Conclusions The strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar Winnings We showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a myth Interestingly, we found a Negative correlation between experience of director and winning. Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.

15 Credits Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-Pounds Assistant Excel TechnicianBryce Gerard Data CollectionGrisel Zuniga Warren Brown- Pounds Bryce Gerard Regression AnalystsWarren Brown-Pounds Bryce Gerard Data Provided By imdb.com boxofficemojo.com PowerPoint DesignBryce GerardBased on an Idea byBryce Gerard Special Thanks to: Rajat Gupta

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