1. Poverty and Place: What have we learned from the last decade? Jim McCormick Scotland Adviser, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) jms.mccormick@yahoo.co.uk

2. Direction of change for 56 Monitoring Poverty & Social Exclusion indicators (NPI, 2008) Change1998-20022003-2007 Better3014 Steady1927 Worse 715 Net+23- 1

3. Indicators showing progress Sustained: Fewer young people failing to achieve ‘standard’ level of qualifications Fewer young people failing to achieve ‘standard’ level of qualifications Proportion of homes not of a decent standard Proportion of homes not of a decent standard Single pensioners on a low income Single pensioners on a low incomeStalled: Child poverty rate Child poverty rate Value of out-of-work benefits relative to earnings Value of out-of-work benefits relative to earnings

4. Change in child poverty, GB (1998-2007)

5. Indicators showing progress...but then reversed: Households in fuel poverty Households in fuel poverty Rate of young adult unemployment Rate of young adult unemployment New JSA claims no more than 6 months after previous (work/no work churn) New JSA claims no more than 6 months after previous (work/no work churn)

6. No progress (steady) Area concentration of worklessness Area concentration of worklessness Long-term worklessness (2 years +) Long-term worklessness (2 years +) Disabled adults in work Disabled adults in work

7. Area concentrations of worklessness in Scotland

8. Getting worse Steadily: Real value of benefits for workless households without children Real value of benefits for workless households without children Low-income households paying full Council Tax Low-income households paying full Council Tax Entitled pensioner households not taking up Council Tax Benefit, Pension Credit and HB Entitled pensioner households not taking up Council Tax Benefit, Pension Credit and HB After period of stability: People in very low-income households People in very low-income households In-work poverty – now more adults are poor in work than out of work In-work poverty – now more adults are poor in work than out of work

9. Poverty trends: household type Down by one-fifth among children Down by one-fifth among children Down by almost half among pensioners Down by almost half among pensioners Little change for working-age adults as a whole, but... Little change for working-age adults as a whole, but... Down for those with children, both in-work and outDown for those with children, both in-work and out Up for those without children, whether in-work or not (220,000 adults)Up for those without children, whether in-work or not (220,000 adults) Most workless adults are poor, many are among the poorest 10%Most workless adults are poor, many are among the poorest 10%

10. Income inequality Solidarity target on lowest-income 30%: addressing those at risk of poverty, in poverty and their share of total income Solidarity target on lowest-income 30%: addressing those at risk of poverty, in poverty and their share of total income ONS (2008): ONS (2008): ‘UK income gap same as in 1991’ OECD (2008): OECD (2008): ‘Rich and poor gap narrows in the UK.’

11. People and places: what works? Review of UK-wide policies to target places (area-based) and people (client- groups) by Oxford University Review of UK-wide policies to target places (area-based) and people (client- groups) by Oxford University Most UK policies had small, positive impacts with costs usually offset by savings Most UK policies had small, positive impacts with costs usually offset by savings Policies to help IB claimants (PtW) and lone parents (NDLP) into work fared best among person-focused Policies to help IB claimants (PtW) and lone parents (NDLP) into work fared best among person-focused But some area-based (Employment Zones) did better than equivalent person- based policies But some area-based (Employment Zones) did better than equivalent person- based policies

12. People and places: what works? Policies had greatest impact if: Policies had greatest impact if: Tailored to disadvantaged people with minimal complexityTailored to disadvantaged people with minimal complexity Reflected local needs and prioritiesReflected local needs and priorities Shaped through active engagement with stakeholders including service usersShaped through active engagement with stakeholders including service users Question of purpose: lots of evaluation, but less clarity about how policy objectives link to policy outcomes Question of purpose: lots of evaluation, but less clarity about how policy objectives link to policy outcomes

13. Looking ahead Solidarity target (30%) means wider focus on low-income working households and older people than poverty target (20%) Solidarity target (30%) means wider focus on low-income working households and older people than poverty target (20%) Reduce income inequality: assets; skills for learning, life and work Reduce income inequality: assets; skills for learning, life and work Secondary schools: lowest-attaining 20% Secondary schools: lowest-attaining 20% Reduce inequality between areas: maps of worklessness and low pay differ Reduce inequality between areas: maps of worklessness and low pay differ Complex and deep poverty: drug and alcohol dependency, offending, asylum- seeking, mental ill health Complex and deep poverty: drug and alcohol dependency, offending, asylum- seeking, mental ill health

14. Looking ahead Welfare reform for the recovery - ‘work first’ won’t do Welfare reform for the recovery - ‘work first’ won’t do Balancing paid and unpaid workBalancing paid and unpaid work Tackling in-work povertyTackling in-work poverty Reform of tax creditsReform of tax credits Goal of sustainable work and skills progressionGoal of sustainable work and skills progression

15. Looking ahead Pensioner poverty: who is best placed to transform uptake levels? Pensioner poverty: who is best placed to transform uptake levels? Consumer poverty: addressing market failure for essential services, starting with household energy Consumer poverty: addressing market failure for essential services, starting with household energy

16. JRF Programme 2009 What has devolution done for poor people and places? What has devolution done for poor people and places? Second-generation housing stock transfers Second-generation housing stock transfers Housing and Neighbourhoods Monitor Housing and Neighbourhoods Monitor Migrants in front-line services Migrants in front-line services Empowerment of older and disabled people Empowerment of older and disabled people Problem drinking Problem drinking