1. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.1. Session 2.4. ContingencyPlanningExercise ?

2. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.2. Objectives After completing this session, participants will be able to:  Describe the process of contingency planning scenario development  List a number of immediate actions needed by sector in the event of a massive refugee influx

3. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.3. Generating Scenarios Make explicit analyses of risk & probability, so others can understand severity & plausibility of scenariosMake explicit analyses of risk & probability, so others can understand severity & plausibility of scenarios Identify possible warning signs and likely “triggers” for each scenarioIdentify possible warning signs and likely “triggers” for each scenario Emphasize program needs, i.e., build scenarios around anticipated needs of affectedEmphasize program needs, i.e., build scenarios around anticipated needs of affected Consider logistical needs & constraints as part of proposed operational responseConsider logistical needs & constraints as part of proposed operational response

4. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.4. Which types of scenarios?  Refugee influx, mass population displacement  Refoulement  Attack on refugee camp or settlement  Violence within a population  Epidemic  Natural disaster  Sudden repatriation

5. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.5. How do we limit the possibilities? Scenarios to which we are likely to respond.Scenarios to which we are likely to respond. 1 - 3 of most plausible scenarios1 - 3 of most plausible scenarios Some consider “worst case”, the “low probability / high risk” scenarioSome consider “worst case”, the “low probability / high risk” scenario

6. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.6. Scenarios & Assumptions Scenario assumptions include statements about (for example):  Likely number of refugees or IDPs  Expected number arriving in poor condition  Potential demographic distortion of affected population (e.g. many single-female headed households)  Likely duration of the emergency  Etc.

7. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.7. Contingency Planning in Mardon Background 1.A massive influx of Tuleran refugees may be in the works. 2.You have just arrived in Mardon City as the representative of your organization. 3.You will join the contingency planning process for the possible influx.

8. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.8. Tulera River Tule Ocean Ocean Mardonburg Mardon City Vares Suremia Mardon Tuléville

9. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.9. Mardonburg Mardon Customs Checkpoint Tulera Mardon “Little Tuléville” 50 kms. Tulé Desert

10. UNHCR/e-Centre/InterWorks - Emergency Management Training2.4.10. 1.Scenarios 2.Strategic objectives 3.Sectors & resources 4.Immediate actions 5.Participating agencies Contingency Planning in Mardon Tasks