1. 1 Adaptive Management: Integrating Inquiry, Decisions, Policy and Practice Session I Uncertainty and other Barriers to Adaptive Management Jan Sendzimir Environmental Partnership for Central Europe - Austria

2. 2 Two Main Questions s What is Adaptive Management? -What does it aim to do? -What has it achieved in theory and practice? -What factors enhance it? s What is not Adaptive Management? –What has it yet to develop? –What blocks it?

3. 3 Outline  Brief Overview of Adaptiveness  What Started the Search for Adaptiveness?  Types and Sources of Uncertainty  Nature - Complexity in time and space  Society - Immature management  Barriers to Adaptiveness

4. 4 Adaptive Practices  acknowledge and embrace uncertainty S Assume we will be surprised because we can’t predict S Create a rigorous process of structured learning (inquiry and management).  treat policies as hypotheses and link the inquiry and action phases with processes of information feedback, reflection and revision.  encourage the suspension of conflicts as traditional adversaries jointly develop ways to learn from experience.

5. 5 Integrating how we understand with how we act

6. 6 Wicked Problem  Can recognize it - can’t really define it  No single objective function to maximize  Many players working at different levels and using different values that are not commensurate - You can’t add them up

7. 7 Wicked Problems  Problems that are complex all the way down.  They don’t successfully decompose at any one level into units that can be added back up to the whole picture.  Things are entangled within levels and across levels (up and down).

8. 8 Sources of Uncertainty How can we oversee all the levels?  Spatial complexity makes prediction difficult –Natural systems are patchy and heterogeneous in the distribution of objects and in the scales at which processes operate.  Summary - Look at Process Operation –Different sets of processes dominate at different scales to generate different structures characteristic of those scale ranges.

9. 9 Ecological Scaling Scale is the spatial and temporal frequency of a process or structure. Bounds of a scale domain: in space - pixel size and window size in time - speed and lifetime. 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 420- 2- 4- 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1 cm 1000 km 1 km 10 m 1m1m Log Space (km) 10 000 yrs Log Time (years)

10. 10 Vegetative & Atmospheric Scales Atmospheric processes occur faster than vegetative processes occurring at the same spatial scale. LOG SPACE- km 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 420- 2- 4- 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1 cm 1000 km 1 km 10 km 100 m 1m1m standpatch crown needle forest region El Niño front s long waves thunderstorms climate change LOG TIME - years Vegetative Structures Atmospheric Processes 10 000 yrs

11. 11 Mesoscale Processes LOG TIME - years LOG SPACE - km 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 420- 2- 4- 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs 10 000 yrs day hour Atmospheric Processes Mesoscale Processes Boreal forest 1 cm 1000 km 1 km 10 km 100 m 1m1m Budworm Outbreaks Fire Meso-scale Disturbance Processes (fire, insect outbreaks) link atmospheric processes with vegetative structures.

12. 12 Sources of Uncertainty  Temporal complexity makes prediction difficult. –Natural systems rarely maintain a predictable, linear course. –They erupt in episodes of transformation –Biblical events: pestilence, fire, flood, plagues. –They may “flip” between different stability domains..

13. 13 Examples of Multiple Stable States  Coral Reefs –coral vs. algae  Arid Landscapes –shrubland vs. grassland  Shallow Lakes –eutrophic vs. clear  North Florida Forest –longleaf pine savanna & fire vs. hardwood forest without fire

14. 14 Adaptive Cycle Dynamics

15. 15 Two views of a stable equilibrium A world-view that justifies taking risks with Nature and/or Society, because you are always forgiven.

16. 16 Unstable Equilibrium (Cassandra): The world is ephemeral and may collapse at any minute for any small reason.

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19. 19 Surprise in Florida Bay Florida Bay Seagrass Clear Water Muddy Water Algae Blooms

20. 20 Sources of Uncertainty  Society is also complex in space & time –Mosaic of different cultures, politics. –Episodes of transformation –War, Globalization, Cultural Shifts, AIDS.  Management actions can increase the complexity –Efforts to control ecosystems or society have started smoothly and ended in catastrophe

21. 21 Management Pathologies  Research to control variability that limits production –Crop or fish production, pests, water flow, fire  Initial success --> abandon research to understand, focus on profit maximization  Slow variables change, connecting the system, making it vulnerable to collapse.  Invest heavily to raise production and demand, society becomes dependent on resource.  Collapse - contagious agents spread through the overconnected system.

22. 22 Northwest Salmon Fisheries  Salmon nurseries increase production and make it more steady for the moment.  Government subsidizes larger fishing fleets to meet rising public demand.  Larger fleets first deplete wild stocks, leaving mostly nursery salmon.  Large scale variables slowly shift:Habitat destruction, logging, dams erode reproductive capacity of salmon.  Finale: when highly dependent on technology to sustain us, the nurseries are attacked by disease.

23. 23 Management Pathology Management in Linear Bursts Each problem is a unique, one-way ride.  Crisis: prime motivator for management.  Operations - control damage and fix the situation as soon as possible.  As soon as situation improves, move to another crisis.  Experience and memory fade as people and organizations that made teams to fight the problem are redirected to other areas.  Little or no effort to monitor the situation, assess policies, anticipate future crises.

24. 24 Barriers to Adaptiveness First Insights from Ecology  Faith in Eden - belief that the world is originally balanced and returns to balance after disturbance. This ignores the reality that systems have multiple stable points and can fall to degraded states that are hard to escape.  Faith in Laboratory Science - we can no longer take what we learn in the laboratory and extrapolate it up to understand the larger world. Different processes operate at different scales.  Faith in Management – Control of variability is temporary and leads to overdeveloped systems that are increasingly vulnerable to disturbance. –Management applied in linear bursts cannot learn about long term developments that lead to the next crisis.

25. 25 Barriers to Adaptiveness Failures of Institutions & Leaders  Bias towards targets and outcomes –(Numerical goals more important than process)  Data access blocked by –a. no money, b. politics, c. no one aware of data  Expectation that government makes all decisions, has all responsibility  Fear of experimentation  Fear of loss of authority  Fractured communication and decision-making (government, science, political groups)  Inability to admit uncertainty