1. CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis Baghdad June 2009

2. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Achievements of transition Overarching trends Development challenges Key areas of concern Human rights, justice and security Economic development and inclusive growth Human development Governance Development gaps Top priorities Next steps Summary

3. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Country in transition: security & political improvement Security incidents fell by 90% Aug 2007 - Apr 2009; Casualties down People’s perception of security improved. 80% of Iraqis report improvement; The political process consolidates: Regained sovereignty; successful elections in 2009; people’s trust in the state increasing 43 62 84 39 49 61 Aug 2007 SeptOctNovDecJan 2008 FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecJan 2009 FebMarAprMay Total Incidents Casualties Positive Security perception (%) Confidence in National Government (%) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 No deaths / incidents 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage Source: Security: UNAMI-SSI, Returns: UNHCR (April 2009)

4. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Country in transition: reintegration Return of displaced population increased; no major new displacement. Between 60-80% of IDPs would like to return to their homes (IOM, HCR) Security Incidents Refugee returnsIDP returns Source: Security: UNAMI-SSI, Returns: UNHCR (April 2009) Monthly Average 2007 Monthly Average S1 2008 Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 No. of families Security Incidents 0 10000 30000 50000 20072008 Yearly totals

5. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Country in transition: socio-economic improvements 1.Improved macro-economic stability Economic growth Contained inflation 2.Human development indicators have shown improvement Improved food security o Food insecurity down from 15 to 3% (WFP/COSIT 05, 07) o Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since 1990s (9% in 05 to 4.7% in 07) Improved schooling o Overall increase in enrolment o Gap between male & female education achievements narrowed o Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87% in 07-8, MOE) and now passed 5m pupils. Antenatal care is relatively high 87% of pregnancies / ~80% of births are attended by skilled personnel (IFHS)

6. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Country in transition However, the situation remains fragile and reversible

7. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Overarching trends Bigger, fast growing and younger population: 31 million, 43% under 15 yrs Iraq’s natural resources & ecological support system in decline Higher dependency on highly unstable international oil market Growth in public sector: public sector jobs created instead of developing private sector; focus on subsidies at the expense of service delivery

8. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Key challenges to Iraq’s transition Consolidate peace o Ensure political participation & strengthen state-citizen relationship o Address limitations to women’s participation in public life Sustain improvement in security o Strengthen rule of law o ensure protection of basic rights Strengthen economic performance o improve management of resources, o stimulate private sector, generate economic opportunities, particularly for women & young people Enable env’t for return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees Improve access to and quality of basic services, esp. for the most vulnerable. Address regional disparities & improve rural standard of living.

9. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Key areas for Iraq’s future development 1. Human rights, security and justice 2. Economic development 3. Human development 4. Governance

10. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations

11. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations 1. Human Rights, Security & Justice Human rights a major concern. Women particularly at risk. Civilian casualties still high and security institutions (esp. police) need strengthening Key message: Continued improvements in human rights, security and justice are needed for national reconciliation, peace, and development

12. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations

13. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations 2. Economy Dev’t & Inclusive Growth Economic performance affected by dominant public sector (44% full-time employment), weak private sector, underperforming & under-skilled labour force. Young people & women left out (25% of men aged 20-24 yrs unemployed and 18% of women participate in Labour Force) 23% of the population under the poverty line, high regional disparities, rural population twice as poor (IHSES).

14. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Youth Unemployment Rate (%) by Age Groups (Concentration among young) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465 and more 2006 unemployment rate2008 unemployment rate

15. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Economically Inactive (25% 15-64yr) Unemployed (14% of LF) Part Time (21% of LF) Full Time (65% of LF) Gender Men (age 15-64yr) Women (age 15-64yr) Economically Inactive (82% 15-64yr) Unemployed (19% of LF) Part Time (45% of LF) Full Time (36% of LF)

16. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Economic Dev’t: Energy, Rural dev’t & Environment Electricity unreliable (daily average of public supply 7.9 hrs; 22% of population rely on public network - IHSES) Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in the rural economy due to lack of value chains (e.g. weak, small agro- industry). Weak management of natural resources and pressure on natural environment strain economic development, esp. rural, including agriculture.

17. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Environment and rural development Areas affected by drought in both 2008 and 2009 Affected CropLand / Total_CropLand 46% - 56% 31% - 45% 26% - 30% 6% - 25% 4% - 5% 39% of all cropland suffered from drought in both 08-09 Source: FAO, IAU (2009)

18. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Key message Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraq’s economy remains oil dependent, with a weak private sector and job market and with few opportunities for the poor

19. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations

20. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations 3. Human Development: Education Iraq’s capacity to nurture the skills of next generation is weak High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp. among rural women (55% rural women aged 15-24 illiterate, MICS3) 40% of students go from primary to secondary school (MOE). Poor quality and overcrowding: one in three schools operating double shift (MOE) 28% of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams (MOE 2007) 40% pass rate in South and Centre

21. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Human development: Health Iraq ‘s health status has waned due to consecutive wars, violence and inadequate public/reproductive health strategies. Life expectancy at birth = 65yr (1987) / 58yr (2006) Infant mortality rate = 30 per 1,000 live births (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006) Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any mental disorder: Men (8.8%) / Women (13.5%. IMHS) Poor measles immunisation: 65% coverage (MICS3) Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.

22. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Human development: Water & sanitation 82% HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste collection (IHSES) Lack of access to safe and reliable water and sanitation One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time (MICS3)

23. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Essential Services: the public water network Network infrastructure exists but is in a state of disrepair; 27 % Have access to reliable drinking water 44 % Suffer from less than One interruption a week 19 % Are not connected to the general water network 24 % Suffer from more than one interruption a day 13 % Suffer from more than one interruption a week Source: Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey (2007) – COSIT/World Bank, UNICEF (2008) In Iraq’s most vulnerable communities

24. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Human development: social protection Social protection exists but not protecting the most vulnerable 45% of jobs covered by social insurance; 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural areas, and these children are less likely to participate in school - MICS3 PDS provides great proportion of food consumed and improves food security amongst the poorest prevalence of hunger low at 7% But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable (Diyala 51% hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered due to violence).

25. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Human development: housing and shelter 4 key issues to poor housing & growing demand: 1. Population growth rates 2. Levels of overcrowding; 3. Poor housing conditions and access to basic services; 4. Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons;

26. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Key message: human development Access to quality services is a key priority and requires strong further improvement; it is central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy of the government

27. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations

28. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations 4. Governance Perception of state legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness improving, but still weak, partly because of slow improvement with services and economic opportunities Public sector reform urgent but needs to be gradual to avoid destabilisation given high dependence on state jobs & subsidies. Budget allocations is key issue Weak independent media, environmental and cultural resource management needs urgent attention.

29. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Budget Allocation: Investment Gap 2008 Actual expenditure shares (% of total budget) 0 10.3 6.3 0.1 6.3 5.2 0 0.20.1 0.6 Total (Op.&Inv.) Expenditures Projects Investment 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 % Public Activity OtherKurdistanInteriorDefenceElectricityOilJusticeAgricultureHealthEducation Subsidies. Pensions, War rep Local Administration SecurityEnergyInvestment Gap

30. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Service Delivery Perceptions 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % FuelElectricity WaterMedical CareLocal Schools Aug 2007Mar 2009 Source: ABC Polls (Aug 2007 / Mar 2009) Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in people’s perception due to private and public investment Service delivery on water, health and education less improvement (reflecting lack of investment)

31. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Key message Improving governance, management of public resources, capacity to deliver services and generating public debate are critical to consolidate peace.

32. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Development Gaps 1. Human capacity 2. Strategy to address poverty 3. Governance capacity

33. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Top priorities Prioritise & sequence interventions with high transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend potential Address regional and governorate disparities Address poverty and unemployment through rural development Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children

34. CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis COSIT/KRSO – United Nations Next Steps 1. Identification of Thematic Groups 2. Amman Workshop 3. Drafting of CCA