1. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Coasts and Climate Change: potential for adaptation and mitigation in the Local Government Association Dr Larissa Naylor What are the characteristics of the coastal systems? How will climate change & sea level rise exacerbate existing pressures in estuaries & coasts? What can we do about it?

2. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Presentation Outline: 1. Overview of the Tyndall Centre 2.Climate impacts research terminology. 3.Overview of coastal pressures and processes, with a focus on the UK 4.Summary of current coastal impacts & adaptation research 5.Exploring how coastal councils can incorporate climate change into their daily activities and planning 6.Questions & Discussion

3. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Purpose of the Tyndall Centre ….. “To research, assess and communicate from a distinct trans-disciplinary perspective, the options to mitigate, and the necessities to adapt to, climate change, and to integrate these insights into the global, UK and local contexts of sustainable development.”

4. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI The Tyndall Centre partner institutions University of Leeds University of Sussex CLIMATE SCIENCE APPLIED ECONOMIC MODELLING TRANSPORT MODELLING SCENARIOS & POLICY ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS ARCHITECTURE

5. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI UK climate will become warmer; high summer temperatures will become more frequent & very cold winters will become increasingly rare. Winters will become wetter with more frequent heavy precipitation and summers may become drier. Snowfall amounts will decrease throughout the UK. Relative sea level will continue to rise around most of the UK’s shoreline, with extreme sea levels experienced more frequently. Future UK climate

6. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Impacts of climate change Climate change (temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events) Impacts Housing Water resources Natural areas Agriculture Health Infrastructure Tourism Biodiversity Coastal areas

7. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Adaptation: 1.Adaptations are actions taken to reduce the magnitude of the adverse impacts of climate change (or to exploit the beneficial impacts) 2.Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, including variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantages of opportunities or to cope with the consequences, IPPC, TAR, 2001. 3.Current Adaptation Research, see: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/theme3.shtml

8. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Mitigation: 1.Mitigation are actions taken to reduce the magnitude of climate change 2.Mitigation + adaptation = response to climate change … 3.... Some, if not most, actions might include both mitigation and adaptation. Definitions from Mike Hulme, November 2002.

9. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI What is Vulnerability? 1.Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability & extremes (IPCC TAR, 2001). 2.Mitigation + adaptation = response to climate change … 3.Coastal Vulnerability Research: -National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/cvi/ -DINAS-COAST Project: http://www.pik- potsdam.de/dinas-coast/

10. IPCC, 2001: “Most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Adaptation & Mitigation Options: Atmosphere: –Limit the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. –Reduce emissions and increase sequestration. Coastal and Estuarine Areas: –Re-think our coastal defence policies –Reduce development in floodplains /changing our housing design. –Encourage natural, dynamic coastlines which can respond to changing sea levels. –Act now to reduce the risks (loss of life, housing, etc.) despite uncertainties in our predictions. –Educate & involve local people What changes can we make?

11. Potential effects of climate change on coasts: 1.Sea level Rise – it is already a problem: SLR rose by nearly 20 cm in the 20 th century (Peltier 2001). 2.Elevated sea surface temperatures 3.Increased levels of inundation, erosion & flooding. 4.Knock-on effects for: Biodiversity (species extinction) Fisheries (reduced production) Tourism (islands may disappear) Housing/Infrastructure (coastal defences may become too expensive to maintain) (IPCC, 2001) Hurricane Mitch, Grand Cayman Islands, Source: Emma Tompkins

12. SEA LEVEL RISE and its components HadCM2 GHG1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1950200020502100Year 1900 Sea-level rise (m) Total Thermal expansion Glaciers Greenland The Met.Office Hadley Centre Antarctica not included

13. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI CHANGE IN TIDAL HEIGHT FREQUENCY Return period/years Return height/metres HARWICH (data from Proudman Oceanographic Lab) Current 100-year return period water level 31 cm sea-level rise by 2050s Return period in 2050s=20 years 1101001000 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 The Met.Office Hadley Centre

14. Change in 50-yr surge height (2080s, Low Emissions, low SLR) [Source: Jason Lowe]

15. Change in 50-yr surge height (2080s, Medium-High Emissions, medium SLR) [Source: Jason Lowe]

16. Change in 50-yr surge height (2080s, High Emissions, high SLR) [Source: Jason Lowe]

17. Annual mean sea temperature change

18. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Coastal futures Areas currently below the 1000-year return period level in England and Wales By 2100: the 1 in 1000-year level may become a 1 in 100-year level

19. 1.Global: Small Islands & Low-lying deltas 2.National: low-lying areas of reclaimed land, such as along the East Anglian coastline in the UK, Southeastern United States and/or Atlantic Canada. 3.Local: Thames Estuary A 1m sea-level rise would affect 13 million in people Bangladesh, with 16% of national rice production lost (Leatherman & Nicholls 1995). Hot Spots: Source: Gommes et al. 1998 Flood defences are currently designed for 1:1000 year events, by 2030 it will be reduced to 1:100 years & 1.2 million new homes will have been built in London. Source: Thames Barrier Website

20. What does this mean for us? Need to manage climate change through: 1. Information – direction, rate and scale of change – areas and people likely to be affected 2. Action – adapt to forthcoming changes in the climate – mitigate climate change 3. Research – Tyndall Centre’s Research – Environment Agency’s Flood Risk to 2100 study

21. Coastal Settlements at Risk in England 1.7 million residencies & 130 000 commercial properties are vulnerable to flooding. This equates to approximately 10 percent of the population of England & property worth over £200 billion. (The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, DEFRA, www.defra.gov.uk) Research is currently being conducted into how buildings can be adapted to be made more flood-proof and how new homes can be built in a sustainable way. See: http://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/research/index.ht ml Perhaps build houses on stilts? Or change insurance policies to replace carpets with flagstone floors? Or change building codes to put electrical sockets above 1 m on the ground floor? Great Yarmouth, 1953 Floods Source: CCRU website

22. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Current Defences: 1.Expire in 2030 (or earlier) 2.Thames Barrier was commissioned in 1982 & cost £530 million Current Risks: 1.> 150 km 2 lies below high tide level 2.750, 000 homes are at risk from flooding 3.Flooding would result in immense disruption to commerce, etc. 4.Ground water tables are rising 5.More intense rainfall = increased urban runoff London: Thames Estuary Flood Risk Assessment Adaptation Measures: 1.Currently planning flood defences to 2100 (Environment Agency, http://www.environment- agency.gov.uk/yourenv/eff/natural_forces/flooding/). 2.All new developments must have a flood risk assessment (it is a material consideration in planning) 3.Innovative designs are being considered: - spillway gardens around buildings to slow influx of heavy rainfall into sewers - urban parks along the river front which flood during storm surges - restricting development in the outer Thames to increase the tidal prism - holding upstream water back during extreme high tides/storms) 4. Education for local residents & businesses. For example, http://www.city.london.on.ca/BasementFlooding/

23. Policy & Research Needs: Research: Regional – local scale integrated assessment models Develop & test adaptation methods. To develop new tools to simulate the effects of different policy options & climate change scenarios on estuarine systems Policy: Need cross-cutting policies which work to plan and manage entire coastal zones. Need to involve local people early in the policy & planning process. Need flexible, long-term (50-100 year) policies which are continually updated.

24. A place-based approach Understanding and anticipating key processes in the coastal zone Exploring new institutional and stakeholder approaches to coastal zone management Integrating conservation strategies with soft and hard engineering approaches to coastal management Nearly 1 Million pounds of research money is being invested to examine coastal responses to climate change Tyndall’s Sustaining the Coastal Zone

25. Tyndall’s Aims into Action: research foci (1)improving our scientific understanding of how climate change predictions will affect coastal processes such as flood risk, wave climate and sea level rise; (2) examining how coastal communities might adapt to climate change and; (3) examining the interrelationships between the two spheres of research and their combined affect on coastal sustainability in light of climate change.

26. East Anglia Prototype Coastal Simulator Lincolnshire Essex Estuarine biogeochemistr y Tiered Flood Risk Biodiversity & Tourism Virtual Reality GIS Vulnerability Assessment Biodiversit y & sediment dynamics Sediment transport & cliff recession MCDA & Stakeholder s New forms of coastal governance Legal issues and climate change Geomorphologica l responses

27. What is the Regional Coastal Simulator? Definition: It is an innovative decision-support tool where climate change scenarios & policy response options are integrated with information on sediment transport, biodiversity, sea defences & socio-economic activities. Aim: It will explore the effects of different sea-level rise & adaptation scenarios on coastal habitats and communities in East Anglia. Intended Outputs: 1. Management tool: A decision-support system for regional decision makers 2. Strategic testing device: to explore the possible implications of a number of plausible coastal futures. 3. Methodology: An alternative method for conducting integrated assessments in the coastal zone. Simulator Design Team: Prof. Andrew Watkinson, Dr. Larissa Naylor, Prof. Bill Sutherland, Dr. Jenny Gill and Dr. Andy Jones

28. Research questions the pilot model is seeking to answer: 1.What happens (to biodiversity, sediment, tourism, etc) as a result of … X, Y, Z sea level rise and … X, Y, Z adaptation option? 2.What policy choice is most appropriate, given a particular sea level rise? 3.Which future habitat states are most likely given … X, Y, Z sea level rise and … X, Y, Z adaptation option? The extent of Mean High Water Neap in 2050, under a high emissions scenario. If current defences are not maintained, it is possible that some or all of these areas would be flooded by 2050.

29. Biodiversity responses Visualisations Critical evaluation of modelling tools The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Outputs of the coastal simulator: Policy options and stakeholder dialogue Multi-disciplinary implications of different coastal futures

30. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Re-designing the Coast Workshop Series Science Workshop – October 2001 - Highlight key research priorities in coastal climate change science - Provide a state of the art analysis of our current knowledge of coastal processes and climate change. - Proceedings: www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/workshops/ Policy and Users Workshop – March 2002 - Highlight key administrative and policies which help and hinder coastal management - Introduce ideas for new forms of coastal governance. - Proceedings: www.uea.ac.uk/env/cserge/publications/2002/ Local Citizens Workshop – May 2002 - Synthesising and presenting material from the first 2 workshops. Encouraging local parishes to help ‘Redesign the Coast’ - Encouraging coastal parishes to become involved in coastal management issues and coordinate activities in rural coastal communities

31. Redesigning the Coast Workshops: Aims Engaging stakeholders throughout the research process, encouraging local residents to play an active role in the research process Bringing together teams of scientists, government and non-government organisations, environmental managers and local stakeholders to discuss core issues on the topic of coastal management & climate change Heighten awareness of the potential for local-scale and institutional adaptation to climate change

32. Public Participation and Climate Change Education and Involvement by: Raising awareness of current and future flooding in community and business (insurers, builders etc). Inviting speakers and/or preparing education materials to help inform local citizens about climate change and coastal flood risk. See climate change and flood planning as a catalyst for positive local change. For example, protecting against sea level rise using managed realignment could enhance the coastline’s value through tourism. Alternatively, harvesting of samphire could become more lucrative than that currently gained from seasonal grazing marshes. Packaging information/results in a form which is accessible for the public Tyndall Website: www.tyndall.ac.uk For further information, contact: Prof. Andrew Watkinson – a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk Dr. Larissa Naylor – lnaylor@bristol.komex.com

33. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Local Government and Climate Change Local Government Structure – where does climate change fit? Climate Change Strategies at the Local Government Level Some ideas for how to incorporate climate change in Local Government policies and practice Resources to assist in preparing climate change action plans UKCIP resources 'Climate Change & Local Communities - How Prepared are You?’ http://www.ukcip.org.uk/ local_authorities/local_a uthorities.htm

34. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Impacts of climate change Climate change (temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events) Impacts Housing Water resources Natural areas Agriculture Health Infrastructure Tourism Biodiversity Coastal areas

35. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Refuse District Council’s – where does climate change fit? Impacts on: Local Planning Municipal Ports Local Agenda 21 Economic Dev’t Civil Emergency Land Drainage Beaches Envt’l Health Cliff Stability, Flood Defence Burials Highways

36. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC & ESRC and receives additional support from the DTI Climate Change Strategies at the Local Government Level Bristol City Council’s: ‘Bristol Climate Protection and Sustainable Energy Strategy’ consultation process. April 2003 to the end of December 2003. The aim of the external consultation is to: Raise awareness of how climate change will effect Bristol Ensure all relevant information is included in the strategy Provide the opportunity to decide on priorities for an action plan Set carbon dioxide emission reduction target(s) for the city Develop new and build upon existing projects and partnerships Four phases.: Expert & Interested Stakeholders (open to all) - May/June 2003 Community Organisation s - June/July 2003 Industry & Commerce - June/July 2003 General Public - Autumn 2003 End Product – development of an Action Plan with Emissions Targets

37. UKCIP Local Authorities Adaptation Guide Access from: http://www.ukcip.org.uk/local_authorities/local_authorities.htm Excerpt from the guide:

38. Visualisations The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI What do we want the future to look like?