1. Earthquakes within the Cascadia Region

3. Seismic Risk Acceptable Risk: Taking into account the tradeoffs involving cost to the individual, cost to the society, amount of safety increased per unit of additional cost, etc

5. Tectonics

9. Earthquakes Green = N. Am plate Red = J. de Fuca plate PNW Urban Corridor Portland Seattle

11. Hazard -- Shallow / Crustal Most earthquakes are a result of movement in the crust, a relatively thin layer on the Earth’s surface. Shallow quakes are usually less than magnitude (M) 7.4. Most California quakes are shallow, as were the quakes centered at Vancouver Island, British Columbia in 1946 (M7.3) and Scotts Mills, Oregon in 1993 (M5.6). Small shallow earthquakes are recorded every day in Cascadia; damaging quakes occur every few decades. Strong shaking is generally 20-60 seconds, although it could be longer in localized areas. Damage can be very heavy in the area of the epicenter and along the fault. Aftershocks are common and may cause further disruption. No tsunami expected, although there could be a local tsunami from landslides or from an earthquake under Puget Sound.

12. Photo from Port of Seattle ? ? ? Northern edge of bedrock outcrop Downtown Seattle, view southeast North Deformation front of the Seattle fault

14. Geologic Materials Fill Till Dense Sand Br Till

15. Geologic Materials Fill Till Dense Sand Br Till

16. Subduction zone / Seattle Fault Earthquakes Peak Ground Acceleration Magnitude 6.7 Modeled fault I G D

18. Secondary Hazards Fire Explosions Flooding Subsidence Landslide Psychological trauma of shake Disorientation Uncertainty Grief

20. Driving vs. Resisting Forces Driving Forces Resisting Forces

21. 1995 Kobe Earthquake Moderately Seismic Region Higher Population Density Over 6400 Deaths Over 40,000 Serious Injuries Over 300,000 Homeless Substantial Cost ($40B US) Direct Economic Loss $200B US

22. Tsunami A subduction zone earthquake would generate a tsunami, which is actually a series of waves. The number of large waves and their height will depend on local conditions. In some cases, waves may be up to 30 feet (10 meters) high,

24. Vulnerabilities and Impacts Ground response - Earthquakes release energy that travels through the earth in waves. Subduction quakes are richer in long- period waves, which are most dangerous for tall buildings and for long bridges or pipelines. This is a different pattern than in a typical shallow quake, where the greatest effect is on short buildings.

25. Vulnerabilities and Impacts Ground failure - Sandy soils saturated with water can liquefy, or behave like a liquid, during an earthquake. Major earthquake destruction is often found on these soils that are prevalent along rivers, streams and lakes. Liquefaction can seriously damage buildings, bridges, pipelines, and roads by undermining their foundations and supports

27. Systems Vulnerabilities and Impact

28. Renton Lifeline Cluster Water (blue) Wastewater (dark red) Liquid Fuel (yellow) Power (red) Transportation (black) High liquefaction susceptibility (pink) Pipeline floated in 1965 Seattle Earthquake

29. Hwy 101 corridor / coast Widespread damage and isolation To a large extent, each coastal community is isolated for weeks, as landslides disrupt many sections of Highway 101. Many communities on the coast are devastated by the combination of strong shaking, landslides, tsunami waves, and fire. Buildings, roads, bridges, and utility lines suffer varying amounts of damage. Some are destroyed.

30. I-5/Hwy 99 Corridor Utilities, transportation, other systems disrupted Throughout this area, electricity and telephone service—both traditional and cellular—are inoperable for more than a day. Some water, sewer, and natural gas services are interrupted because of broken pipelines. Even buildings with no structural damage have to close because they do not have adequate utilities. This results in lost wages and lost profits.

31. East of the Cascades Indirect economic effects Some residents in the area feel the ground shake, but it is only a very weak version of the earthquake felt at the coast. In a city like Spokane, 300 miles (500 kilometers) east of the subduction zone, the community is affected, even for those who don’t feel the ground shake.

32. Long-term recovery Transformation after destruction We cannot ignore or negate the power of a subduction zone earthquake. However, with planning, we can use the event to transform our region. For example, Hwy 101 can be rebuilt to current engineering standards, rather than continuing to be pieced together every winter after damage from storms and landslides. This will give the coast a dependable transportation backbone on which to rebuild the future.

33. Stages of response and recovery Priorities for the first 72 hours: Save live s, by emergency personnel and neighbor hood residents. Establish communications when telephone and electrical systems are seriously damaged. Assess bridges, roads, buildings and assess and repair infrastructure (power, water, sewer, gas, transportation). Remove debris to improve access for responders. Priorities for the first 30 days: Provide temporary shelter, food, water, and medical care. Restore electrical power, particularly to water treatment facilities, hospitals, and emergency facilities. Remove debris; find appropriate locations for dumping material. Inspect buildings, including shoring unsafe buildings, and reevaluations after aftershocks. Repair transportation routes. Begin managing inventory control and distribution. Priorities for 30 days to 6 months: Continue damage inspection, aftershock re evaluation, and inspect new construction. Continue rebuilding infrastructure. Continue temporary shelter, food, water, and medical care. Move those in temporary shelters to more permanent housing, streamline resulting permit and land use planning processes. Manage debris, including sorting and re cycling, prevent / treat health and environmental problems. In July 2002, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) invited nearly 200 people from federal, state, provincial, and local governments to a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake tabletop exercise. Their fore cast of long-term needs included:

34. Earthquake Scenario Time of Earthquake Season Day of the weak Day / Night Time of the day Schematic illustration of seismic zonation as the link between earthquake risk assessment and earthquake risk management.

36. Police Powers –14 th Amendment: “…nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law” –10 th Amendment: The federal government has the power to regulate only matters specifically delegated to it by the Constitution. The Commerce Clause: ( Article I, Section 8, Clause 3 ) of the United States Constitution, empower the United States Congress, "To regulate Commerce … among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.” –5 th Amendment: says, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation

37. LOCAL GOVERNMENT POWERS REGULATION: Building Codes Zoning Ordinances Subdivision Ordinances Floodplain Ordinances Critical Area Management ACQUISITION/INCENTIVES Fee Simple Acquisition Easements TDRs TAXATION Preferential Taxation Special Assessments Exactions SPENDING Public Buildings and Facilities Capital Improvements Programming Police Powers

38. Property rights Land ownership rights are sometimes referred to as a bundle of sticks with each stick representing a right such as the right to possess, sell, lease property, develop, mine ore, etc. But not all rights out of the bundle held by the owner are owned by the owner. In the United States, no owner ever holds the fullest possible bundle.

39. Laws –Statutes –Case law –Regulations “Code of Federal Regulations” (CFR) –Mandates –Executive Orders –Guidance can be offered by agencies operating under legal authorities. Often this guidance has the effect of law.

40. Plans and Planning –Comprehensive land use –Hazard Mitigation plans Building Standards –Special building standards –Building codes Development Regulations –Zoning ordinances –Overly zones –Bonus and incentive zoning –Performance or impact zoning –Planned Unit Development (PUD) –Subdivision ordinance Information and Community Participation – Public information –Disclosure Environmental Management –Wetland protection –Stormwater management Public Facilities Policies –Capital improvements plan Land and Property Acquisition –Acquisition of land –Structural buy-outs –Relocation of existing dev. –Acquisition of dev. rights and easements –Transfer of development rights Taxation and Fiscal Policies –Preferential (reduced) taxation –Impact taxes or special assessments

41. Capabilities Matrix Discussion

42. What Urban Design Can Offer to Make University Campuses Safer? Symposium 2005 Best practices in Risk Reduction For Colleges and Universities University of Washington Seattle, Washington January 27-28, 2005 Professor Hossein Bahrainy

43. What urban design can do? Generally –System Redundancy –Restorability –Serviceability –Evacuation Potential –Hazard Potential –Trauma Potential –Occupancy –Coping ability –Critical residents

44. More Specifically: General Location Use micro zonation data / map Site selection: – Topography – Landslide – Rock fall – Liquefaction – Soil dynamics – Foundation consideration

45. More Specifically: Development Pattern/Form Decentralized Concentration

46. More Specifically: Accessibility Network Balanced Network Alternative access Alternative Corridors Accessibility / Land use

47. More Specifically: Access Network Distance between Main Roads Road enclosure Road capacity and use Road access Road blockage

48. More Specifically: Access Network

49. More Specifically: Landuse Pattern Avoiding hazardous areas / activities Decentralized uses Relatively independent clusters

50. More Specifically: Special Uses Hospitals Labs Libraries Sport Facilities Hubs

51. More Specifically: Activity Centers Balanced distribution of activity centers Easy access to centers Optimum location of centers Optimum size of centers

52. More Specifically: Activity Centers Decentralized centers Hierarchy of activity centers

53. More Specifically: Density Lower the density Particularly on the slopes, Instable soils and high risk zones

54. More Specifically: Open Spaces Provide open spaces next to activity centers Easy and safe access to and from open space Decentralized open spaces

55. More Specifically: Life Line Alternative network Using seismic standards Decentralized system

56. More Specifically: Architectural Planning of Building ` Plan shape Simple Symmetrical Elevation : Not too elonged in plan or elevation No. of Storeys: Uniform and continuous distribution of strength. Have horizontal members which form hinges before the vertical members. Have its stiffness related to the sub-soil properties

57. Door / Window openings Size and shape of room enclosures More Specifically: Architectural Planning of Building ` Construction quality Structural design, EQ resistant elements Additional features