1 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology.

1 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology Disclaimer The views expressed in this briefing are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government.

2 Research Overview Propose a general model for simulating the establishment of security in a post- conflict reconstruction Demonstrate the application of the proposed general model on a notional scenario

3 Post-Conflict Reconstruction Post-conflict reconstruction is defined as  Rebuilding the socioeconomic framework of society  Reconstructing the enabling conditions for a functioning peacetime society  More than just the rebuilding of physical infrastructure  Includes promoting reconciliation and establishing Governance Rule of law Security Literature on post-conflict reconstruction spans the literature on nation-building, peacekeeping, peace enforcement, and stability operations Harme and Sullivan, 2002:89

4 Systems Dynamics Systems dynamics models are continuous event simulations It models systems as webs of key factor levels and dynamic rates of change driven by non-linear interconnected relations, information feedback loops, and time delays In the past systems dynamics has been applied to a number of different types of systems to analyze how different types of systems develop over time Examples include Industrial setting Urban development World economic development STRATMAS And others

5 Model Overview Labor Market Indigenous Security Institutions Law Enforcement Critical Infrastructur e Public Opinio n Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities

6 Components of a Systems Dynamics Model -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value Forrester 1961

7 General Post-Conflict Reconstruction Model Unemployed Persons Gov’t Employees Gov’t Employee Rate of Change Police In Training Police Officers Police Officer Training Rate Criminal Recruitment Rate Criminal Apprehension Rate Police Officer Recruitment Rate Criminals Insurgents Insurgent Rate of Change Civilian Casualties Crime Rate Privately Employed People Employment Rate Indigenous SF in Training Indigenous SF Recruit Rate Indigenous Security forces Indigenous SF Casualty Rate Indigenous SF Graduation Rate Insurgent Captured or Killed Rate Coalition Troop Casualty Rate International Insurgent Rate of Change Coalition Troops In Country Coalition Troop Rate of Change Troops Securing Borders Troops Quelling Insurgents Troops/MPs In Police Roles Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Amount of Food/Fuel/Water/ Electricity Delivered Each Day Power/Water/Food Infrastructure Development Rate People Dissatisfied With the Occupation People Neutral to or Satisfied With the Occupation Rate of Change of Public Opinion # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Insurgent Rate of Change Per Capita GDP Growth Rate Per Capita GDP Crime Rate Note: Some levels have been aggregated on this slide

8 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Sub-Model Unemployed persons Insurgents Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Coalition Troops Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Civil Defense Personnel Indigenous Military Personnel Border Patrol Personnel Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22) Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Indigenous Police Officers Tips on Insurgent s (Eq. 3.40) Detained Insurgents Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

12 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Sub-Model Unemployed persons Insurgents Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Coalition Troops Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Civil Defense Personnel Indigenous Military Personnel Border Patrol Personnel Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22) Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Indigenous Police Officers Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Detained Insurgents Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

17 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Sub-Model Unemployed persons Insurgents Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Insurgent Killed or Detained Rate (Eq 3.28) Coalition Troops Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Civil Defense Personnel Indigenous Military Personnel Border Patrol Personnel Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22) Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Indigenous Police Officers Tips on Insurgent s (Eq. 3.40) Detained Insurgents Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

18 General Post-Conflict Reconstruction Model Unemployed Persons Gov’t Employees Gov’t Employee Rate of Change Police In Training Police Officers Police Officer Training Rate Criminal Recruitment Rate Criminal Apprehension Rate Police Officer Recruitment Rate Criminals Insurgents Insurgent Rate of Change Civilian Casualties Crime Rate Privately Employed People Employment Rate Indigenous SF in Training Indigenous SF Recruit Rate Indigenous Security forces Indigenous SF Casualty Rate Indigenous SF Graduation Rate Insurgent Captured or Killed Rate Coalition Troop Casualty Rate International Insurgent Rate of Change Coalition Troops In Country Coalition Troop Rate of Change Troops Securing Borders Troops Quelling Insurgents Troops/MPs In Police Roles Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Amount of Food/Fuel/Water/ Electricity Delivered Each Day Power/Water/Food Infrastructure Development Rate People Dissatisfied With the Occupation People Neutral to or Satisfied With the Occupation Rate of Change of Public Opinion # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Insurgent Rate of Change Per Capita GDP Growth Rate Per Capita GDP Crime Rate Note: Some levels have been aggregated on this slide

19 General Post-Conflict Reconstruction Model 23 Variables in 44 Equations

20 Application to a Notional Scenario Notional scenario based on Operation Iraqi Freedom  Day 0 is the day the Baathist regime collapsed  Scenario ends when security is effectively established  Security is established when the 30 day moving average for crime and insurgent related deaths falls below an annualized rate of 43 deaths per 100,000  43 deaths per 100,000 is the murder rate in Washington D.C.

21 Notional Scenario Starting Conditions  200,000 Coalition Troops  10,000 Iraqi Police Officers  0 Iraqi Security Forces  0 Barrels of Oil Produced Per day  2000 MW of Electricity Distributed Per Day  4,000,000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day  50,000 Criminals  10,000 Insurgents  30% of the Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation

22 Results From Open Source Baseline Run Of Notional Iraqi Scenario FactorStarting Level Coalition Troops200,000 Iraqi Police Officers10,000 Iraqi Security Forces0 Barrels of Oil Produced per Day0 MW of Electricity Distributed per Day2000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day4,000,000 Criminals50,000 % of Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation30%

23 Screening Experiment Results Histogram Sample Mean: 317 Sample Std Dev: 80 N = 192

24 Significant Factors by Magnitude of Impact TermEstimatep-value Initial Dissatisfied People0.185359<.0001 Infrastructure Development Rate-0.12592<.0001 GDP Growth Rate-0.05763<.0001 ISF Training Rates-0.04549<.0001 Initial Insurgents0.029326<.0001 Initial Police Officers-0.02877<.0001 Initial Criminals0.012877<.0001 In this notional scenario  Effort spent “winning hearts and minds” during hostilities and immediately on taking control can make it easier to establish security, saving money and lives  Critical Infrastructure development and economic growth are critical to establishing security

25 Conclusions A systems dynamics model of post-conflict reconstruction can help decision makers by:  Providing an environment where various policies can be explored without lost money or lives  Bounding how long an operation will likely take  Bounding how many resources a given operation will likely require to be successful  Identifying key leverage points to bring about a desired outcome

26 Questions Contact Information: Lt Damon RichardsonDamon.Richarson@Randolph.Af.Mil Dr Richard DeckroRichard.Deckro@AFIT.edu Maj Victor WileyVictor.Wiley@AFIT.edu

27 Indigenous Security Institutions Sub-Model Civil Defense Personnel in Training Civil Defense Personnel Civil Defense Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.2) Civil Defense Graduation Rate (Eq 3.5) Civil Defense Casualty Rate (Eq 3.11) Unemployed persons Indigenous Military in Training Indigenous Military Indigenous Military Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.3) Indigenous Military Graduation Rate (Eq 3.6) Indigenous Military Casualty Rate (Eq 3.12) Border Patrol Personnel in Training Border Patrol Personnel Border Patrol Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.1) Border Patrol Graduation Rate (Eq 3.4) Border Patrol Casualty Rate (Eq 3.10) Border Patrol Attrition Rate (Eq 3.7) Indigenous Military Attrition Rate (Eq 3.9) Civil Defense Attrition Rate (Eq 3.8) -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

28 Criminals Criminal Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.17) Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers in Training Indigenous Police Officers PoliceRecruitmentRate (Eq 3.13) Police Graduation Rate (Eq 3.14) Police Casualty Rate (Eq 3.16) Crime Rate Eq 3.20 Coalition Troops Policing Eq 3.21 Police Attrition Rate (Eq 3.15) Incarcerated Criminals CriminalRelease Rate (Eq 3.19) Insurgents -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value Law Enforcement Sub-Model

29 Indigenous Labor Market Sub-Model Unemployed persons Indigenous Military in Training Indigenous Military Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.3) Private Sector Employees Border Patrol in Training Civil Defense in Training Police Officers in Training Government Employees Per Capita GDP Police Officer Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.13) InsurgentsCriminals Border Patrol Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.1) Civil Defense Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.2) Criminal Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.17) Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) Government Employee Hire Rate (Eq 3.32) Private Sector Hire Rate (Eq 3.33) Insurgent Attack Rate (Eq. 3.30) Crime Rate Eq. 3.20 Per Capita GDP Growth Rate (Eq 3.34) Critical Infrastructure Levels -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

30 Critical Infrastructure Sub-Model Water Development Rate (Eq. 3.39) Gallons of Water Distributed Daily Water Shortage/Surplus (Eq. 3.35) Food Development Rate (Eq. 3.40) Tons of Food Distributed Daily Food Shortage/Surplus (Eq. 3.36) Fuel Development Rate (Eq. 3.41) Gallons of Fuel Distributed Daily Fuel Shortage/Surplu s (Eq. 3.37) Electricity Development Rate (Eq. 3.42) Electricity Shortage/Surplus (Eq. 3.38) Number of KWH of Electricity Distributed Daily Insurgent Infrastructur e Attacks Per Capita GDP Growth Rate (Eq. 3.34) Public Opinion Rate of Change (Eq. 3.40) -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

31 Public Opinion Sub-Model Public Opinion Rate of Change People Dissatisfied with the Occupation People Neutral to or Satisfied with the Occupation Tips on Insurgent s Insurgent Rate of Change Crime Rate Insurgent Attacks Unemployed Persons Food Shortage/Surplus Fuel Shortage/Surplus Water Shortage/Surplu s Electricity Shortage/Surplus

32 Civil Defense Personnel in Training Civil Defense Personnel Civil Defense Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.2) Civil Defense Graduation Rate (Eq 3.5) Civil Defense Casualty Rate (Eq 3.11) Unemployed persons Indigenous Military in Training Indigenous Military Indigenous Military Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.3) Indigenous Military Graduation Rate (Eq 3.6) Indigenous Military Casualty Rate (Eq 3.12) Border Patrol Personnel in Training Border Patrol Personnel Border Patrol Recruitment Rate (Eq 3.1) Border Patrol Graduation Rate (Eq 3.4) Border Patrol Casualty Rate (Eq 3.10) Border Patrol Attrition Rate (Eq 3.7) Indigenous Military Attrition Rate (Eq 3.9) Civil Defense Attrition Rate (Eq 3.8) Indigenous Security Institutions Sub-model -Level Value -Rate Value -Function -State Change -Parametric Input -Exogenous Level Value

36 FactorStarting Level Coalition Troops200,000 Iraqi Police Officers10,000 Iraqi Security Forces0 Barrels of Oil Produced per Day0 MW of Electricity Distributed per Day2000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day4,000,000 Criminals50,000 % of Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation30% Results From Open Source Baseline Run Of Notional Iraqi Scenario

37 Results From Open Source Baseline Run Of Notional Iraqi Scenario Factor Starting Level Coalition Troops200,000 Iraqi Police Officers10,000 Iraqi Security Forces0 Barrels of Oil Produced per Day0 MW of Electricity Distributed per Day2000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day4,000,000 Criminals50,000 % of Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation30%

38 Summary Problem Statement Overview of post-conflict reconstruction Overview of systems dynamics Outline of the general model Application to a notional scenario Notional scenario results Conclusions Areas for further research

39 Overview Problem Statement Overview of post-conflict reconstruction Overview of systems dynamics Outline of the general model Application to a notional scenario Notional scenario results Conclusions Areas for further research

40 Areas for Further Research This model could be expanded  Increase its granularity Add sub-regions within a country Model different types of troops as having different capabilities Model different types of insurgents  Increase its scope Expand the model to simulate the other 3 pillars of post- conflict reconstruction Include a more robust economic model Include political, sectarian, and religious effects Apply to operational data

41 Significant 2 and 3 Factor Interactions FactorsEstimatep value Initial Dissatisfied People * GDP Growth Rate0.01618<.0001 Initial Dissatisfied People * Infrastructure Development Rate-0.02001<.0001 Initial Criminals * ISF Training Rates0.006220.0345 Initial Insurgents * Infrastructure Development Rate-0.011140.0002 GDP Growth Rate * ISF Training Rates0.010440.0005 GDP Growth Rate * Infrastructure Development Rate0.007490.0112 Initial Dissatisfied People * GDP Growth Rate * ISF Training Rates-0.010650.0004 Initial Dissatisfied People * GDP Growth Rate * Infrastructure Development Rate0.006480.0278 Initial Insurgents * GDP Growth Rate * ISF Training Rates-0.008410.0046

42 Screening Experiment 2 7-1 Resolution VII 3 replications Dependent Variable  Number of Days Until Security is Established 3 x 64 =192 Runs Fit to a log-linear regression model with 1, 2, and 3 factor interactions FactorLowHigh Initial Dissatisfied People30%60% Initial Police Officers10,00030,000 Initial Criminals50,000100,000 Initial Insurgents10,00020,000 Baseline GDP Growth26%52% Baseline Iraqi Security Forces Class Size1x2x Baseline Critical Infrastructure Development Rate1x2x

43 Level Values In the General Model There are 23 level values in the general model Taken together these level values describe the state of the system at a given time period These levels were chosen so that as much as possible they represent measurable phenomena Per Capita GDP Indigenous Border Patrol Personnel Criminals Coalition Military Forces Indigenous Border Patrol Personnel in Training Incarcerated Criminals Water Distributed Daily Indigenous Civil Defense Service Personnel Insurgents Food Distributed Daily Indigenous Civil Defense Service Personnel in Training Detained Insurgents Electricity Distributed DailyIndigenous Military PersonnelUnemployed Persons Fuel Distributed Daily Indigenous Military Personnel in Training Government Employees People who are Neutral to or Support the Occupation Indigenous Police OfficersPrivate Sector Employees People who are Dissatisfied with the Occupation Indigenous Police Officers in Training

44 FactorStarting Level Coalition Troops200,000 Iraqi Police Officers10,000 Iraqi Security Forces0 Barrels of Oil Produced per Day0 MW of Electricity Distributed per Day2000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day4,000,000 Criminals50,000 % of Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation30% Results From Open Source Baseline Run Of Notional Iraqi Scenario

45 Notional Scenario Starting Conditions Data 2004 Brookings Institution data at the end of May Total coalition troop strength in Iraq  173,000 plus an additional 51,000 in vicinity and at sea 7,000-9,000 Iraqi Police Officers 300,000 BPD of oil produced 3,193 MW of electricity as of the end of June 4,000,000 Liters of Water 5,000 insurgents estimated at the end of November

46 Importance of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Terrorists can use a failed states as a sanctuary The rise of terrorists with global reach has highlighted the threats posed by failed states The National Strategy for Combating Terrorism states that it is U.S. policy to deny terrorists these sanctuaries A tool that helps policymakers apply limited resources more effectively in a post-conflict reconstruction could help deny terrorists these sanctuaries

47 The Pillars of Post-Conflict Reconstruction 4 pillars of post-conflict reconstruction  Security: Includes all aspects of public safety Creation of a secure environment Development of legitimate and effective security institutions  Justice and Reconciliation: Includes dealing with past abuses Creation of an impartial and accountable legal system With an effective law enforcement apparatus An open judicial system with fair laws A human corrections system Harme and Sullivan, 2002:91

48 The Pillars of Post-Conflict Reconstruction  Social and economic well-being: Addresses fundamental social and economic needs Restoration of essential services in health and education Laying the foundation for a viable economy Initiate an inclusive and sustainable development program  Governance and Participation Addresses the need for legitimate and effective political institutions Ensure civil society’s participation in the formulation of public policy Establishment of a representative constitutional structure Strengthen public sector management and administration Harme and Sullivan, 2002:91-92

49 Establishing Security The 4 pillars of post-conflict reconstruction  Are distinct yet interrelated  Must progress concurrently Security is the foundation upon which success in the other areas rests Many relationships between the 4 pillars  Economic development is hampered without security  Without legitimate law enforcement institutions it is difficult to establish security  Civil society participation in public policy is needed to maintain the legitimacy of law enforcement institutions  Security is important in ensuring free and fair civil society participation Feil, 2002:98

50 STRATMAS Project to build an Advanced Command and Control facility for:  Swedish National Defense Academy  US Defense Information Systems Agency This facility will represent complex situations as time dependent systems dynamic models These models will be used for:  Rapid situation assessment  Proactive command and control  Crisis management Christensson and Woodcock, 2002

51 Critical Infrastructures JP 3-57.1 Joint Doctrine for Civil Affairs 14 April 2003  Advise and assist in establishing the technical requirements for government and commercial works  Resources to support government administration Electric power Natural gas Water production and distribution Sewage collection, treatment and disposal

52 Log-Linear Regression Ln Y =

53 Insurgent Rate of Change Eq. 3.26 InsurgentRateOfChange(t) =DissatisfiedPeople(t) * InsurgentKilledorDetainedEffectParameter(t) - InsurgentKilledOrDetainedRate(t) * InsurgentRateOfChangeRandVar(t)

54 Insurgent Killed or Detained Rate Eq. 3.28 InsurgentKilledOrDetainedRate(t) = Insurgents(t) * (CTroopsCounterInsurgEffectParameter(t) * CTroopsInCounterInsurg(t) + IMEffectParameter(t) * IndigenousMilitaryTroops(t) + CDEffectParameter(t) * CivilDefenseTroops(t)) * TipsOnInsurgency(t) * InsurgentAppRandVar(t) Eq. 3.28a InsurgentDetentionRate(t) = (1-InsurgentKilledRate(t)) * InsurgentKilledOrDetainedRate(t)

55 International Insurgent Rate of Change Eq. 3.27 InternationalInsurgentRate(t) = TotalInternationalInsurgentsRandVar(t) * (BorderPatrolEffectParameter(t) * BorderPatrolTroops(t) + CoalitionPatrollingBorderEffectParameter(t) * CoalitionPatrollingBorder(t))

1 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology.

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1 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology."— Presentation transcript:

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