1. Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS: Introduction and An Overview by Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani (Email: gilani@gallup.com.pk) and Professor Takashi Inogouchi (Email: inoguchi@ioc.u-tokyo.ac.jp) Reflections on Indices developed during 1945-2015 Presented at WAPOR Annual Congress, Buenos Aires, Argentina June 16-19, 2015 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview Panel Paper # 1

2. Page 1 We generally know what we can NAME and beyond it if we can MEASURE what we have named WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

3. THINGS OR RELATIONSHIPS WHICH CAN BE NAMED AND MEASURED ARE MUCH MORE IMPORTANT IN OUR ‘REALITY’ COMPARED TO THOSE WHICH ARE NOT Page 2 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

4. WHILE REALITIES ARE SHAPED BY THE WAY IN WHICH WE NAME AND MEASURE THEM, NEW AND ‘EMERGING REALITIES’ ARE IN SEARCH OF NAMES AND MEASUREMENT APPROACHES Page 3 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

5. Page 4 IN A NUTSHELL ‘NAMING’ AND ‘MEASURING’ IS PART OF SCIENCE AS WELL AS POLICY AND POLITICS WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

6. Page 5 IT IS NOT WITHOUT REASON THAT THE AMERICAN CONSISTITUTION WROTE A CLAUSE WHICH REQUIRES A CENSUS OF POPULATION EVERY TEN YEARS AMERICAN PRESIDENTS (NOTABLY HOOVER) ENGAGED AT GREAT LENGTH ON MEASUREMENT AND THE ISSUES JUST STATED ABOVE. THESE DISCUSSIONS CONTNUE TO THIS DAY Documented by Raymond Bauer (1966) and Z. Karabel (2014) WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

7. Page 6 EMERGING RELATIES REQUIRE THAT THOSE SHOULD BE ‘NAMED’, ‘MEASURED’ AND ‘HARNESSED’ ACCORDING TO POLICY PERSPECTIVES WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

8. Page 7 20 th Century IN THE FIRST HALF, THE FOCUS WAS ON MEASURING ‘NATIONAL ECONOMES It was later extended to CORSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS/ COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH A field developed by Simon Kuznets (1965) for which he received a Nobel Prize in Economics WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

9. Page 8 20 th Century IN THE SECOND HALF, THE FOCUS WAS ON MEASURING ‘SOCIAL INDICATORS’ Apparently this was a reaction to Over-emphasis on ‘Economy’ which triggered search for ‘Other Indicators’ Details available in Raymond Bauer (Edited) Social Indicators, MIT Press 1966 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

10. Page 9 21 th Century THE FOCUS IS ON MEASURING A GLOBALIZED WORLD HOWEVER INDICATORS AND MEASUREMENT APPROACHES ARE STILL SHAPING The Process is perhaps only at an early stage WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

11. Page 10 TWO HURDLES Hurdle # 1 GOING BEYOND ‘ECONOMICS’ Hurdle # 2 GOING BEYONG ‘NATIONAL’ WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

12. Page 11 Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches BEYOND ECONOMCS Behavioral Economics is One Example Kahneman received a Nobal Prize for contribution in that field WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

13. Page 12 Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches BEYOND NATION World Values Survey is One Example. It began as a multi-country exercise WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

14. Page 13 DOCUMENTING OF HISTORY IS OFTEN NEEDED TO GO BEOND THE CONVENTION BECAUSE IT INFORMS US OF THE PROCESS THROUGH WHICH PREVIOUS CONVENTIONS WERE MADE INTO ‘HISTORY’ WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

15. Page 14 For a detailed version of this paper we have chosen 2 Books as key source materials INTERESTINGLY BOTH DID NOT RECEIVE WIDE ATTENTION IN THE FIELD, despite strong credentials of the Authors and Publishers Raymond Bawer (ed) Social Indicators, 1966 Zachary Karabel, The Leading Indicators, A Short History of the Numbers that Rule our World, 2014 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

16. Page 15 RAYMOND BAUER (1966) The first Book was very interestingly produced under sponsorship from NASA (before landing on the Moon) to research the Consequences of such a prospect on Society in a comprehensive way (Economics and beyond) WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

17. Page 16 ZACHARY KARABEL (2014) The Second Book is driven by concerns with the Global Economy. It is written by a historian trained at Columbia and Harvard History Departments, who introduces himself as an ’author, money manager and head of global strategy at a consulting Group’. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

18. Page 17 Phase # 1: 1945-65 FOCUS ON ECONOMY 1-GDP/GNP: Per Capita National Income 2-Unemployment (Unemployment Rates) 3-Inflation (Consumer Price Index-CPI) 4-Inequality (Gini Coefficient) Continued…….. A short Chronology of GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING 1945-2015 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

19. Page 18 A short Chronology of GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING 1945-2015 Phase # 2: 1965-1990 FOCUS ON GOING ‘BEYOND ECONOMY’ AND ‘CROSS NATIONAL’ 1-Civic Culture (Almond and Verba) 2-Democracy and Freedom (Freedom House) 3-World Values (Inglehart et.al) 4-Human Development Index (UNDP-Amartya Sen and Mahboob ul Haque) 5-Human Poverty Index (World Bank et.al) Continued…….. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

20. Page 19 A short Chronology of GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING 1945-2015 Phase # 3: 1990-2015 Focus On Going Beyond Nation and Reaching out to ‘State’ and ‘Non-state’ Actor/ Audiences/ Policy Makers – FOCUS ON A GLOBALIZED WORLD 1-Corruption Perception Index – Transparency International 2-Consumer Confidence (Reuters-Conference Board) Originally developed by Katona at University of Michigan in the 1950s. Still continuing at Michigan for the US population 3-Market Research and Polling Industry driven work by Economist Intelligence Unit – EIU Economist London Group )Series PWC and other leading Consulting Groups Gallup Inc. WIN-Gallup International Association Ipsos-MORI PEW Foundation Globscan/BBC Others ………. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview

21. Page 20 REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE: Phase # 3 Unlike Phase # 1 and (partly) Phase # 2 there is no Custodian. Central Governments were fairly unchallenged CUSTODIANS AND DRIVERS in Phase # 1. INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS (UN, World Bank et.at) or INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS of Central Governments provided that Role in Phase # 2. In Phase # 3 there are SEVERAL DRIVERS BUT NO CUSTODIAN OR LEADER WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview 1- THE ABSENCE OF A CUSTODIAN

22. Page 21 In Phase # 1, there was a strong THEORETICAL GROUNDING FOR THE CHOICE OF THE SUBJECT (Economy) AND ENORMOUS METHOLDOLOGICAL INPUT FROM DISCIPLINES WHICH LED THE MEASUREMENT PROCESS (Philosophy, Mathematics, Statistics). This led to work like Kuznet and its critics. To cite an example, there is an interesting literature spanning over at least a decade, spearheaded by Economics Departments of leading American universities, on the concept of ‘Purchasing Power Parity’ (PPP), and ‘Living Standards Measurement’ before developing the modified Indicator of GNP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)* This is less true for Phase # 2 and considerably less for Phase # 3 REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE: PHASE # 3 _____________ Work produced at National Bureau for Economics Research. Examples are Work by Rudger Dornbusch (MIT); McCloskey and Zecher (Harvard) and many others Continued…….. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview 2- WEAK ON THEORY

23. Page 22 Phase # 3 is preoccupied with (to borrow from recent economic development literature which talk about ‘Resource Curse’) the Curse of Abundant Data which has crowded out the hard work needed to develop new Global Indicators to Capture the realities of a Globalized world. The BIG DATA is a GREAT OPPORTUNITY as well as partly responsible for sluggish development of Indicators in Phase # 3 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview 3- THE CURSE OF ABUNDANT DATA REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE: PHASE # 3 In Phase # 3 the Indicators are not necessarily addressed to a specialized audience of scholars and policy makers. Instead they are addressed to a much wider media audience. The excessive focus on media visibility of the findings of global indices may hurt the development of sound Indices. 4- MISPLACED FOCUS ON MEDIA VISIBILITY

24. Page 23 This Panel has tried to lay ground for documenting the history of a few global indicators. In addition they also report on some of the data produced in the process. In addition to this overview paper there are 5 papers, one on Economic Indices, one on Public Health Indices and 3 on Governance related Indices. After the Overview paper, which has been numbered as Paper # 1, Paper # 2 looks on Economic Indices. Paper # 3 looks on a Public Health issue, namely Vaccine Confidence Index. Paper # 4 looks at Governance related Indices (unfortunately the paper can not be presented partly due to time constraints and partly because authors team was not yet satisfied with their research). Paper # 5 also looks at a Governance related Index, namely Index on Justice, developed by the World Justice Program. Paper # 6 looks at still another Governance related issue, namely Perceptions about Freedoms. We are very happy to host this paper in our panel because its subject and theme matched with that of this panel. It was not part of the original panel proposal. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Introduction and An Overview PRESENTATIONS IN THIS PANEL

25. THANK YOU