1. ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke

2. US Energy “Sankey” Diagram

3. Hot, Flat, and Crowded  Hot: Climate Change  Flat: Technology and Bandwidth  Crowded: More people, who want to live like us

4. T HE DEMAND FOR ENERGY

6. International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov

7. EIA Demand Scenarios http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf

8. T HE SUPPLY OF ENERGY

9. Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),

11. Causality or Correlation?

15. When is the Peak? 2004 data

16. Different Scenarios http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cf m?id=38&t=6

18. Fracking

19. EPA: 2-4 million gallons per well = 200 to 400 tanker trucks of water

23. Where Does it Come From?

24. Where does our oil come from?

25. US Oil Imports, US EIA

27. Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook ~2009

29. Data, US EIA, 1/29/2015

30. Reserves, Production, years left Data: EIA, 1/29/2015

31.  Strip mine for bitumen, a sandy oil solid  Liquefy with steam and caustic soda NaOH  Slurry is pumped,  2 tons of sand for 1 barrel (1/8 ton) of oil  90% recovery with centrifuges  17% more GHG than regular oil production  Phases 3 & 4: “Keystone XL”  Phase 4 goes over Ogallala Aquifer Drinking water for 2m people $20b agriculture  830,000 barrels per day  Crosses earthquake zones Tar Sands 1.June, 2010 2.Feb, 2011

32. Keystone XL  36” diameter 910mm  up to 830,000 barrels per day  Phase III – 700,000 bpd  US production 12,500,000 barrels per day

33. Tar Sands Photo: Forbes

34. 4b barrels 410T cu.ft 15b barrels 32T cu.ft 3,000 b barrels?

35.  Government Accountability Office and private industry  Seems to be consensus that there is that much oil there  1 trillion barrels total human consumption so far  GAO: Commercial development at least 15-20years away  May require huge amounts of water  They may get one barrel of water with every barrel of oil  Traditional fracking won’t do it  Oil tightly bound to the rock – heat to FIVE THOUSAND DEGREES  “In situ”: send a heater down below  Cost $65 per barrel Green river formation 3,000 BILLION Barrels?!?

36. The Price of energy

37. Gas Prices 1990-2012 Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htmhttp://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm

38. Price of Liquids

39. The Price of Fuel http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

41. EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011 Death Valley, April 2012

42. NV Electricity Prices Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94

44. US Coal Reserves http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves

47. Pinion Pine Power Plant  DOE Clean Coal  Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle  $335.9m, half DOE, half SPP  New gasification method  New desulfurization method

48. Carbon Capture & Sequestration  Porous rock formations  Small scale tests  Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained  So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE!  There are other pollutants  What if it gets out?  Natural gas stays safely underground

49. Solar Resources

54. Geothermal Resources

55. Wind Resources

56. Renewables’ Share growing

57. US Energy Sources

58. Summary  Demand for energy is going to increase significantly  Growing populations  Rising standards of living  Supply of energy not increasing as fast  Global oil supplies are finite  Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years  Alternative energy sources

61. ,  Feb 2, 1962 ad in Life magazine  Humble merged with Standard to become Exxon