1. Session 6 Crisis and Risk Communication Session 6 Slide Deck Slide 6-1

2. Session 62 Session Objectives 1.Provide an Overview of Risk Perception Theory 2.Explain the Importance of Risk Perception in Risk Communication Slide 6-

3. Perception Exercise 1 Raw/Undercooked Food Exposure Rate ‘Danger’ of exposure on a scale of 1-10 –Meat –Pork –Chicken –Fish –Unwashed vegetables Session 63Slide 6-

4. Session 64 Risk Perception A study within the discipline of sociology that looks at why people fear the things they do (and also why they do not fear other things) Slide 6-

5. Perception Exercise 2 Your three greatest risks Write down the three hazards that are most likely to injure you, kill you, or to otherwise bring great hardship to your life Why are these three hazard risks so great? Lifetime risk, or just at the present time? Session 65Slide 6-

6. Session 66 Risk Fallibility Conclusion 1 Cognitive limitations, coupled with the anxieties generated by facing life as a gamble, cause uncertainty to be denied, risks to be distorted, and statements of fact to be believed with unwarranted confidence Sniper Example – over-estimated fear Slide 6-

7. Session 67 Risk Fallibility Conclusion 2 Perceived risk is influenced (and sometimes biased) by the imaginability and memorability of the hazard People may not have valid perceptions about even familiar risks People underestimate common risks and overestimate rarer risks –Toyota example –Anthrax attacks (2001) Slide 6-

8. Session 68 Risk Fallibility Conclusion 3 Disaster management experts’ risk perceptions correspond closely to statistical frequencies of death Laypeople’s risk perceptions are based in part on frequencies of death, but there are many other qualitative aspects that affect their personal rating of risks Slide 6-

9. Perception Example 3 Shark attacks –Annual attacks (worldwide) –Annual fatalities (worldwide) Vending Machines Drowning Session 69Slide 6-

10. Session 610 Risk Factors Related to Dread Dreaded vs. not dreaded Uncontrollable vs. controllable Globally catastrophic vs. not globally catastrophic Fatal consequences vs. not fatal consequences Not equitable vs. equitable Catastrophic vs. individual High risk to future generations vs. low risk to future generations Not easily reduced vs. easily reduced Risk increasing vs. risk decreasing Involuntary vs. voluntary Affects me vs. doesn’t affect me Not preventable vs. preventable Slide 6-

11. Session 611 Factors Related to How Much is Known About the Risk Not observable vs. observable Unknown to those exposed vs. known to those exposed Effect delayed vs. effect immediate New risk vs. old risk Risks unknown to science vs. risks known to science Slide 6-

12. Session 612 Risk Fallibility Conclusion 4 Disagreements about risk should not be expected to evaporate in the presence of “evidence.” People often are unaware of how little they know about a risk, and of how much more information they need to make an informed decision. Slide 6-

13. Session 613 Risk Perception Attributes Socioeconomic characteristics People’s knowledge of the environment and the hazards that the environment poses to them Their ignorance Their ability to cope with those hazards. Their ability to access help from outside. Slide 6-

14. Session 614 Risk Perception Influence on Mitigation If those funding HazMit projects do not perceive the hazard to be significant, funding is unlikely to be provided If the public does not perceive a hazard to affect them personally, they are unlikely to take any personal measures to prepare or mitigate The presence of differing risk perceptions highlights the need for effective risk communication Slide 6-

15. Perception Example 4 Smoking cigarettes Drinking wine Coal mine work Traveling by canoe Traveling by bicycle Traveling by car Traveling by jet Chest X-ray Living in New York, Boston, or Denver Session 615 Chest X-ray Living with a cigarette smoker Eating peanut butter Drinking Miami water Drinking diet soda Living near a nuclear power plan Living near a PVC plant Eating charcoal-broiled steaks Slide 6-

16. Changing Nature of Hazard Presentation “In one year, cigarettes kill more Americans than died in World War I, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined” Session 616Slide 6-

17. Perception and Risk Analysis “We make a fundamental mistake when we, as safety managers, deal with risk as a fixed attribute, something physical that can be precisely measured and managed.” “The problem with this is that everyone has a unique set of assumptions and experiences that shape their interpretations of objects or events.” –C.J. Pitzer, 1999 Session 617Slide 6-

18. Inaccuracies in Perception Belief that a great risk is small –HazMat Production, Storage, Transport, Use Belief that a small/nonexistent risk is great –Vaccine / Autism link “differences in risk perception lie at the heart of disagreements about the best course of action between technical experts and members of the general public, men vs. women, and people from different cultures” – Slovic, 2002 "Session 618Slide 6-

19. Perception Example 5 Automobile Accident Cancer Earthquake Fall down the stairs Flood Heart Disease House fire Hurricane Session 619 Identity theft Influenza Job loss / Unemployment Robbery / Assault Stroke The economy Tornado Slide 6-

20. Heuristics The Overconfidence Heuristic –Homicides / Suicides Availability Heuristic –Auto accidents / airplane crashes / sharks Anchoring and Adjusting Heuristic –Inaccurate anchors hard to correct Session 620Slide 6-