1. PREMIER MINISTRE French labour markets and occupations in 2015 How might the changing labour market transform higher education ? Expert meeting OCDE/CERI 12-13 feb. 2007 Marc-Antoine ESTRADE Occupations and Qualifications Foresight Centre dAnalyse Stratégique

2. PREMIER MINISTRE The end of the growth of the working population

3. PREMIER MINISTRE administrative professionals on functions of expertise commercial professionals in all the sectors computer professionals, even if the rhythm of growth will not reach the same level as at the end of the 90s teachers, mainly through replacements of posts Vacant positions will be important for professionals

4. PREMIER MINISTRE Vacant positions will be also important for jobs weakly qualified in the personal services Nursery assistants and the home helps Domestic and offices helpers and cleaners, in the public sector as in the private.

5. PREMIER MINISTRE In the manufacturing sectors, total employment will decline, but qualified positions will develop The manufacturing sector will continue to recruit on the qualified posts The big manufacturing companies will develop the related professions (marketing, R*D).

6. PREMIER MINISTRE Changes in labour markets will also depend on choices of work organisation and on profiles of recruitment versatile employees to increase the ability to react of the company… but recruitments will be on very restrictive criteria tasks rationalized to increase productivity gains, but offering little career prospects for the less skilled jobs

7. PREMIER MINISTRE Mobilities in the labour market They will differ depending on occupation, level of qualification, gender and age They will depend on practices of recruitment and on management of the human resources by companies They could remain very unegalitarian, chosen and awarding for the most qualified, undergone for the others

8. PREMIER MINISTRE Disparities will raise for youth unemployment Highest level of diploma (ISCED) Umemployment rate (over the 2 years after leaving studies) 2003-20052015 5A/616 %2 % 5B14 %2 % 319 %21 % 3c25 % 0-241 %56 % Ensemble22 %18 %