World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial.

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming. Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks
AGENDA After Tsunami Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk Management Risk assessment Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems Risk Transfer WMO initiatives

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO-IOC) 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC) WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts ( ) in South and South-East Asia 90% of events 55% of casualties 84% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, Vietnam Between 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions. 4

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards ( ) Important effect of the 2005 Tsunami in geophysical loss of life in Asia and Pacific region, ( ) as well as the Earthquake in Pakistan in 2005 (73 000) Of the Economic losses in Asia due to Geophisical hazards, Earthquakes in Japan account for two thirds Hydrometeorological: Drought, Extreme temperature, Flood, Slides, Wild fires, Windstorm, Epidemic, Insects Geological: Earthquakes, Volcano, Tsunami Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 5

Climate change impact in South and South East Asia IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events Increase of % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees Expansion of areas under severe water stress Increased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India) Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)

How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk Management WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate
World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme Operational forecasting systems Northern Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation UNFCCC negotiations IPCC Assessments 8

National Meteorological &
WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services 2 Global Observing System National Meteorological & Hydrological Services 1 3 4 Global Data Processing and Forecasting Global Telecommunication System

Communication and Dissemination of Processed information
5 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Examples: Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System Emergency Response Activities Drought Monitoring and Forecasting 6 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are linked among themselves through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). This secured communication network enables real-time exchange of information, critical for forecasting and warning of hydrometeorological hazards. Private sector General public Media Government and civil defence authorities

WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh Since a devastating cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 139,000 people throughout Bangladesh, the coastline has been studded with concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath. The government also honed its early warning systems and set up a volunteer network to assist with evacuations. Year Death toll Name Area West Sundarbans Megna Eestuary Chittagong, Noakhali Barisal district Bhola Khulna, Chittagong Urir, Jabbar, Bata, Darbesh, Clark, Sudharam, Hatia, Sand Wip Islands + Patuakhali, Bhola, North Chittagong, Feni, Noakhali districts Gorky Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, Barguna

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner

Hyogo Framework for Action… … change in paradigm of DRM
Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training
Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools 1 PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products 3 2 Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level
Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. Trained management and staff of Hydromet Services Enhanced ministerial and public awareness On the basis of a consultative process approved by EC Member and regional requirements and priorities have been identified systematically in disaster risk reduction and used to develop a DPM Action plan is being developed based on synergistic activities of WMO Programmes, Commissions, Members and Partners . This Action plan is being implemented through regionla and national projects with the following end results,

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training 16

Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment:
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment: Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies Forward looking hazard trend analysis Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts Probabilitic climate models

Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives
Very few countries maintain impact databases Data archived are not standardised 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey) The impact of a disaster is not the only criteria for implementation of EWS: complexity and cost of the system is also important in the decision-making process. Example: heat wave and cold wave do not have a high impact on South America, but EWS for those hazards are in place in most countries because they rely on observations and forecasts of simple meteorological parameters.

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training 19

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up
While casualties related to hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing It is significant to note that while the number of disasters and associated economic losses have increased steadily from the 1950's to 2005, the reported loss of life has decreased by a factor of 10, demonstrating that early warnings combined with emergency preparedness and response planning can indeed significantly contribute to saving lives. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

post-disaster response
In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management Communities at risk National to local governments post-disaster response hazard warning NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological hazard warning The second Priority for Action in the HFA, namely “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warnings,” stresses the importance of early warning systems as a critical component of disaster risk reduction. Early warning systems have received significant international attention over the last decade, including (i) Three international conferences on early warning sponsored by Government of Germany (1998, 2003, 2006); (ii) The establishment of ISDR’s Platform for Promotion of Early Warning (2004); (iii) The recognition of early warning systems as an integral part of disaster risk reduction within the G8 summit of 2005; (iv) The First Multi-Agency International Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (convened by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in May 2006: (v) The Report of the Global Survey of Early Warning Systems requested by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan (2006); and (vi) Recent UN General Assembly Resolutions (A/62/320, A/62/340). In response to a recommendation by the Global Survey of Early Warning Systems to further analyse national capacities specifically related to hydrometeorological early warning systems, WMO conducted a comprehensive, survey-based,assessment of NMHSs’ capacities with regard to disaster risk reduction. A report on this assessment is scheduled for release during the second quarter of 2008. Geological Marine Health (etc.)…

What is an Effective EWS?
4 1 National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms Community Preparedness 5 feedback preventive actions 5 feedback 2 warnings warnings COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES 3 3 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) 3 warnings feedback Effective early warning systems require: Strong support from the government Coordination among national services for issuance of warnings that take vulenrabilities and exposure of elements into account Authoritative and reliable dissemination channel Community preparedness measures Feedback mechanism 5

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training 23

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement Forecasts for management of risk portfolio Technical support and service delivery Financial risk transfer mechanisms, available through catastrophe (CAT) insurance and bonds as well as weather risk management markets, enable distribution of the remaining risks, that have not been addressed by risk identification and risk reduction, and that are associated with (i) extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes and tropical cyclones) and (ii) deviation of meteorological conditions from “normal” (e.g., late on-set, warmer or cooler than normal seasons). These markets have been primarily focused on developed countries, involving a wide range of standardized and customized financial products targeted at various sectors. However, under the new paradigm of disaster risk management, a number of international agencies including the World Bank, World Food Programme, WMO as well as the private sector are joining forces to facilitate the development of these markets in the developing and least developed countries. The expert meeting on “Requirements of Catastrophe Insurance and Weather Risk Management Markets”, held on 5-7 December 2007, recommended development of the following outputs: (i) Identification of requirements of catastrophe insurance and weather risk management markets for data and forecast products; (ii) Development of standard indices with input from WMO technical commissions; (iii) Facilitation of networking with NMHS and Space agencies; (iv) Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations); (v) Modernization of observing networks; (vi) Data Rescue Programmes and capacity development of NMHSs (in cooperation with World Bank and other international development agencies); (vii) Raising political awareness on benefits of NMHSs (with private and public partners); (viii) Developing sustainable observing networks and data management systems; (ix) Addressing data policy issues; (x) Training of NMHS

Challenges at different levels
Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments! Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!

Addressing these Challenges at different levels
Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development) Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots) Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets
Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility UK Flood CAT Bond CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Pacific Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk European Agricultural Risk Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) Heating Degree Day Contracts

Key Questions: 1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? 2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: 1. National policies and legislation 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications Hazard databases Forecasting and Warning Capacities Human resources (technical, managerial) Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders In March 2006, WMO distributed a survey questionnaire to its Members to determine their respective capacities and involvement in disaster risk reduction. This fact-finding survey addressed capacities of NMHSs to contribute to all aspects of disaster risk reduction, including risk identification, sectoral planning, early warning systems, education and knowledge sharing. Specifically, the survey sought to clarify hydrometeorological hazards affecting Member countries, relationships of NMHSs to their respective national coordination systems for disaster risk reduction, NMHSs capacities to support disaster risk reduction within their countries, and gaps and needs related to these capacities. Contributions from 139 of the 187 (74%) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) were received. A Brief Overview of the Survey Results The following gives a preliminary global synthesis of the results of the WMO country-level survey and parallels the structure of the survey questionnaire, assessing the information provided by the survey under four categories – i) governance, ii) organizational, iii) technical, and iv) training and capacity development. i) Governance The survey responses indicate that coordination of disaster risk management activities is generally undertaken at the national level in most countries around the world. They also suggest, however, that national legislative and governance systems for disaster risk management should be re-evaluated and, where necessary, revised to ensure that adequate leadership, coherence and focus are given to disaster risk reduction. Moreover, the roles of individual players in disaster risk reduction should be clarified, in particular those of the NMHSs. ii) Organizational While most NMHSs are members of their national disaster risk coordinating committees, some of them feel that these structures restrict their contributions. Moreover, most survey contributors are very supportive of the establishment of readiness systems that would require specific actions by authorities on receipt of hazard warnings. In addition, they generally endorse the view that improved coordination between National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and National Hydrological Services (NHSs) would result in enhanced hazard warnings, forecasts and other products. In summary, the WMO survey confirms that the involvement of NMHSs in national disaster risk management systems needs to be enhanced in many countries and that partnerships need to be strengthened with relevant government and non-government agencies and organizations. It also confirms the need to improve operational coordination between the meteorological and hydrological communities, particularly in relation to hazard warnings. iii) Technical Key technical aspects of NMHS infrastructure and programmes include observational, telecommunications and informatics infrastructures, warning and forecast capabilities and data management and product generation capacities. Observational Capacities - Accurate and representative hydrometeorological observations, relayed in real time, are the essential raw material for the preparation of early warnings of hydrometeorological hazards and also underpin the production of other products and services for disaster risk reduction. The lack of adequate observational networks is identified by contributors to the WMO survey as limiting NMHSs’ ability to contribute to disaster risk reduction to varying degrees across all regions and country groupings, and particularly in Developing and Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States. Telecommunications and Informatics - Telecommunications systems constrain NMHSs’ abilities to support disaster risk reduction to varying degrees in all regions and country groupings. Applications software, network equipment, and computers are widely seen as limiting factors while some NMHSs also cite difficulties with Internet access. In short, the WMO survey confirms that significant upgrading of telecommunications and informatics capacities is needed in many countries and particularly in Developing and Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States. Warning and Forecast Capacities - The timely provision of early warnings of hydrological and meteorological hazards represents the most visible and easily understood component of NMHSs’ support to disaster risk reduction. The survey responses indicate, however, that warning and forecasting facilities in some countries, and particularly in Least Developed and Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States, require significant enhancement both in relation to staff training and to provision of 24 hourly/year-round hazard warning services. Moreover, the fact that hazard warning programmes generally do not, at present, include all hydrological and meteorological hazards that can cause disasters is a further deficiency that needs to be rectified. In view of these realities, large majorities of survey contributors from all regions and groups consider that upgrading warning and forecast services would enhance disaster risk reduction in their countries. Data Management and Product Generation – While many NMHSs maintain records of common hydrometeorological hazards and have access to official information on their impacts, few maintain such archives in standardized formats that include metadata and few maintain systematic records of less frequently occurring hazards. Almost all of them identify needs to strengthen their data management capacities, citing weaknesses in data rescue, quality assurance, archiving and customization of data for stakeholders. Most also highlight requirements for capacity development and training in critical areas for disaster risk reduction such as hazard mapping, high risk zone analysis and analysis of the characteristics and potential impacts of hazards. iv) Training and Capacity Development A majority of WMO Members identifies shortages of professional staff with appropriate training as a factor that limits their ability for hazard monitoring. Half or more of them also cite the lack of forecaster training as reducing the effectiveness of their hazard warning programmes. The lack of joint training with disaster risk authorities, the media and neighbouring NMHSs is also widely identified as a constraint. In addition, a large majority of NMHSs consider that inadequate awareness and understanding limits the public’s response to warnings. They wish to see expansion of outreach activities to enhance stakeholder and public understanding and inform them how to act in response to NMHSs’ warnings and advice. These survey responses point to widespread needs for increased emphasis on training NMHSs’ staff to provide the best possible products and services for disaster risk reduction, greater efforts to conduct joint training with key partners in the disaster community, and much greater attention to outreach activities.

Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate

Country Responses Scope Number of surveys received Total number of countries % Response Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74% Developing countries 85 137 62% Least Developed countries 25 50 50% Africa (RA I) 28 52 54% Asia (RA II) 34 South America (RA III) 10 12 83% Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82% South-West Pacific (RA V) 14 19 Europe (RA VI) 44 48 92%

Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Under estimated Category Planning & Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1 Need for development in all areas 12 2 Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas 26 4 Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20 Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

National DRR Implementation
WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding Partners Agency Type Coordination National DRR Implementation Funding World Bank (GFDRR) Development X ISDR UNDP WFP, FAO Humanitarian UN- OCHA IFRC Donors (EC, etc) Donor 33

Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery
WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and others Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery Modernization of infrastructures (when needed) observing networks, forecasting and communication Data rescue and managment systems Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologies Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (2007-2011)

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects
(Europe) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia-Pacific) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC) (North America & Carribeans) (South America) DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia) Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo (Africa) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia
Initiated in 2009 Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in Risk Management Capacities Hydro meteorological services Lao Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Indonesia Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR) (underway)

Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC) Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

Need for production of local climate information…
Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically Droughts Trends in heavy rainfall Trends in Frost and Heat Waves (IPCC, 2007) Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services
Four Major Thrusts: Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers Strengthen observation networks More targeted climate research

Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers
ECMWF Moscow Exeter Montreal Beijing Seoul Toulouse Tokyo Washington Lead Centre for LRFMME Pretoria Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Melbourne Lead Centre for SVSLRF SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WCAS

Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009
World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009

Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR
Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners National: NMHS, sectors representatives International/Regional: World Bank, Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 21 World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters
For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel Fax .

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate
Energy Water Resource Management Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind Food security Transport Intensity Health Industry Urban areas Volnurability and Exposure on the rise ! Hazards’ intensity and frequency are increasing Need for disaster risk management Intensity and frequency of various hydrometeorological hazards are likely to increase, as projected by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given the demographic expansion in urban and coastal areas, appropriate planning and disaster risk management is now a critical component of climate change adaptation and sustainable development. Frequency

A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks
Hyogo Framework for Action (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO’s strategic goals in Disaster Risk Reduction are derived from Hyogo Framework for Action, pertaining to those high priority areas that fall under the mandate of WMO and NMHSs. WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial.

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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial.

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