1. >Aging and Demographic Change in Europe: Divergent Trends in Western and Central Europe Rainer Muenz Erste Bank, Vienna 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007

2. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 2 >Road Map Past trajectories Current demographic situation Divergent population trends Future outlook

3. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 3 >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, EU10, 1950-2005 EU15 still increasing EU10 has peaked in 1990

4. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 4 >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, CEE, 1950-2005 1950=100 EU10 EU15

5. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 5 Current Situation

6. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 6 >European Union EU27 Total Population: 491 million - EU15 (old MS)389 million - EU12 (new MS)102 million Foreign-born pop. 41 million - Foreign-born (in%) 8.4%

7. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 7 Common Trends

8. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 8 >Total Fertility in Europe Children per woman in Europe, 2004

9. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 9 >Total Fertility in Europe Children per woman in Europe, 2004

10. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 10 Lowest fertility ever recorded in the history of mankind Persistent below replacement levels Development has lead to excess of deaths over births Shrinking native populations >Total Fertility in EU10, CEE

11. >Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, males

13. >Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, females

14. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 14 Life expectancy well below EU average Difference between EU10 and EU15 larger among males than among females Potential for catch-up in Central Europe (see East Germany) >Life expectancy in EU10, CEE

15. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 15 >Balance of births/deaths in Europe, 2004

16. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 16 >Balance of births/deaths in Europe, 2004

17. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 17 Most EU10/CEE countries report an excess of deaths over births Decline of native population This is likely to continue And this will also become more common amonc EU15 countries >Balance of births/deaths in Europe

18. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 18 Outlook: Future Total Population

19. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 19 xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe, 2005-2025

20. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 20 xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe, 2005-2025

21. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 21 xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe, 2005-2050

22. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 22 >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, CEE, 2005-2050 2050=100 EU10 EU15

23. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 23 Outlook: Future Aging

24. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 24 >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2005

25. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 25 >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; CEC 2005

26. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 26 >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; CEC 2005

27. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 27 >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2005

28. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 28 EU10/CEE, so far, had a younger population than EU15 Population aging takes place at a higher pace in EU10/CEE Mean age in in EU10/CEE is catching up >Aging in EU10/CEE

29. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 29 Lowest fertility Rapid demographic aging Considerable population decline >EU10 / CEE

30. Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007 30 >Contact rainer.muenz@erstebank.at