1. How the crisis might transform higher education: some scenarios Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

2. Outline Enrolments Expenditure –Levels –Possible impact on stakeholder Scenarios

3. Tertiary education enrolments

4. Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)

5. Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

6. Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

7. Why the trend scenario is more likely… Supply will not be too limited –Knowledge economy –Crisis-related political reasons (better to have students than unemployed people) Demand will increase –Individual returns remain high (compared to high school returns) –Decrease of opportunity cost (crisis) –Demand of retraining from unemployed workers –Less apprenticeship available (crisis)

8. …with limiting factors Rising cost to public authorities Rising cost to students and families in a context of unemployement and saving/capital losses Less ability to contribute of the business sector

9. Some qualitative changes in the student population More demand from mature students –More demand for short term programmes –More demand for vocational programmes More difficulties for students from lower working and lower middle classes –Where caps on student numbers –Where high tuition fees –Where insufficient student aid

10. Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population

11. Impact on tertiary education expenditure

12. Projections of total expenditures for tertiary education institutions in 2025 (% of GDP): pre-crisis scenario Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)

13. Change in student/staff ratio to stay at 2005 expenditure level

14. Possible Impact on stakeholders

15. Public funding for HE Budget pressure Unemployment and social benefits Consolidation of public budgets Ageing-related expenditure Continued expansion of HE Rise of eligible students for student aid Response (?) Cuts on expenditures to HEIs after relative protection under stimulus packages Slower growth of public expenditures in the longer run Rise in tuition fees Inadequate student aid (?) More competitive allocation of funding and further segmentation of systems

16. Private funding for HEIs Pressure Less business: –Cuts on R&D expenditures –Cuts on corporate training –Less endowments of foundations –Less willingness to have interns and apprentices? (unless they can contribute to production) Response (?) Less ability to fund university research, to fund their employees for training and and to participate in university programmes But this source of funding is marginal in most countries (except Canada and US)

17. Household funding for HEIs Pressure Decline in revenues of parents Less ability of intergenerational transfer as older people are hit by budget consolidation Unemployment for parents and difficulty to work while studying Inadequate student aid for lower SES Response (?) Willingness to invest more in HE where household cost has been low so far Difficulty to do so in countries where tuition have already rised significantly recently

18. Institutional response Revenue Raise tuition fee levels (if they can) Look for new revenues (international students where differential fee, part- time students, further education, non-degree education, etc.) Compete more for research funding Efforts to raise more corporate funding where it is small (but slow process) Cost Postpone maintenance and infrastructural costs, including library costs Look for further administrative efficiency Freeze hiring of new faculty More differentiated status of new faculty (teaching/research) Increase student/staff ratio or decrease face-to-face instructional time

19. Impact of the economic crisis Short term impact on access issues: –Increase in participation in tertiary education –Increase of the share of higher education expenditures in public expenditures and GDP –Costs will be a limiting factor in countries where there is a significant share of household funding –Possible rise in inequity Longer term impact: –Risk aversion of students and family: less confidence in loans and financial products and less investment in higher education? –Slowdown or acceleration of internationalisation? –Restructuring of higher education systems?

20. Intermediate conclusion Before the crisis In most countries, the budgetary impact of the crisis was not significant Ageing could have affected priorities, but no strong evidence After the crisis Budgetary impact could become more significant (under very conservative assumptions) Public consolidation after stimulus packages and crisis-related social benefits will make difficult for HE budget to grow

21. Scenarios in the light of the crisis

22. International National Market Demand-driven Administration Supply-driven Scenarios for higher education systems

23. 4 scenarios Open networking Serving local communities New public responsibility Higher education, Inc.

24. Scenario 1: Open Networking Drivers International cooperation & harmonisation of systems Technology Ideal of open knowledge Related developments Bologna process, international academic partnerships and consortia, Increasing computing power and culture of openness challenging traditional intellectual property rights Features Intensive networking among institutions, scholars, students (& industry) Modularisation of studies under academics control International collaborative research Strong hierarchy between networks but quick spillovers Lifelong learning outside the HE sector

25. Scenario 2: Serving local communities Drivers Backlash against globalisation More geo-strategic sensitivity in research Cost efficiency Related developments Anti-globalisation movements Crisis? Features (Re)focus on national and local missions Public funding and control of the academic profession Convergence between universities and polytechnics Elite universities struggle to stay more internationalised Less research, mainly on humanities Big science relocated to government sector (more secretive and less internationalised)

26. Scenario 3: New public responsibility Drivers Pressure on public budget (ageing, public debt, etc.) Diffusion of governance structures based on new public management Related developments Autonomy given to HEIs (sometimes legally privatised) Debates on cost sharing Encouragement of competition between HEIs Features Mainly public funding but autonomous institutions controlled at arms length (incentives + accountability) Mixed funding: new markets + more tuition fees (income contingent loans) Demand-driven system with more marked division of labour (specialisation but most HEIs continue to do some research) Research funds allocated through domestic competitive process (except for Europe)

27. Scenario 4: Higher education, Inc. Drivers Trade liberalisation in education (GATS, bilateral) Related developments Rise of trade in HE & inclusion of education in trade negotiations International competition for students Increase of cross-border funding of research Features Global competition for education and research services Public funding for non- commercially viable disciplines exclusively Segmentation of the education and research market Vocational higher education: important share of the market Strong (international) division of labour according to competitive advantage Concentration of research and worldwide competition for funding English as main language of study

28. Serving Local Communities International National MarketAdministration Open Networking Higher Education Inc. New Public Responsibility Scenarios for higher education systems

29. New publication: Higher education to 2030 Forthcoming: Volume 2: technology Volume 3: Globalisation Volume 4: Scenarios

30. THANK YOU Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures www.oecd.org/edu/innovation