1. The Epidemiologic Transition
…focuses on distinctive causes of death in each of the stages of the demographic transition. Originally formulated by Abdel Orman in 1971.

2. Epidemiologic Transition
The four stages
of the
Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 1—pestilence and famine
Stage 2—stage of receding pandemics
Stage 3—degenerative and human created diseases
Stage 4—delayed degenerative diseases

3. STAGE 1
Infectious and parasitic diseases along with animal attacks and attacks by other humans
Malthus called these “natural checks”
Black Plague—history’s most violent stage 1 epidemic (hearth Kyrgyzstan)
Wiped out entire villages
Reached Western Europe in 1348
25 million died—at least ½ population
13 million died in China in 1380

4. STAGE 2
Stage of receding pandemics (a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a high proportion of the population)
Improved sanitation, nutrition and medicine from the Industrial Revolution reduced spread of infectious disease.
Cholera—unknown in rural areas—became an epidemic in urban areas
Construction of water and sewer systems eradicated cholera
However, stage 2 countries saw a rise

5. STAGE 3
Decrease in death from infectious diseases (sharp declines in measles, polio, tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis)
Stage of degenerative and human-created diseases
Cardiovascular diseases, heart attacks and various forms of cancer

6. STAGE 4 Extended by Jay Olshansky and Brian Ault
debilitating diseases associated with age are managed by medical advances
Behavior changes improve health
STAGE 4

7. Stage 5
Some medical analysts argue stage 5 needs to be added because of a reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases
Diseases thought to be controlled have
reemerged
Evolution of microbes
EX. DDT resistant mosquitoes in Sri Lanka TB
Improved Travel

8. THE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL